5/4 (CD): 145th Kentucky Derby Day

[moses]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

He was fairly sharp from the gate in all 3 FG starts although he stumbled slightly in the Lecomte and lost his hind end after a handful of strides in the Louisiana Derby.

At any rate, Mark Casse said he plans to send him straight to the lead in the post-draw quotes. However it should be noted that Tax's trainer (post 2) plans on shifting over to the rail whether War of Will breaks or not.


I would prefer if Improbable showed more early foot, if for no other reason than his riders wouldn't be compelled to make the silly middle moves he's made in his last two.

However, at this stage, I think it's a moot point. Considering his gate antics last out, the bad rides in both his starts this year, and the pummeling he took in the stretch in the Arkansas Derby, my guess is that Improbable has busted a gut and will be a non-factor in the Derby.

Hopefully I'm wrong--because he's talented--but if he does tank hopefully we can at least look forward to a strong 4yo campaign a la Collected in 2017.

Interesting take on Improbable. I’m pretty high on him heading into the Derby. If anything, it seems to me like he’s got quite a bit of room to improve off of his last two starts. But I’ve liked his overal talent level for a long time so I may be letting that skew my analysis. Same goes for Vekoma. I’ve liked him since the Nashua...so I keep looking at him and thinking he’s got a chance to wire the field...though I know most will probably think I’m crazy for thinking that.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

I think it’s because he looks like a cross between a Jesus lizard 🦎 and the Pampelmousse when he runs. You should be glad about 20-1. What’s better than your derby hoss being a good price.

I was thinking it had more to do with casual bettors liking the name Win Win Win.

Vekoma’s Derby day odds wont have any impact on my betting strategy as I’ve got enough on him in Pool 1 & 3 at nearly twice the price. Unless he really gets no respect and floats up toward 30-1 and then maybe I’ll put some more on him.

I will probably put a win bet on Tacitus or Improbable but most of my money will go toward a trifecta bet and possibly some horizontals but still haven’t looked at the rest of the card.

[Alabama Stakes]

Since you’re covered in the win hole, maybe try to take him second and third in the tri or super for a possible big balloons score.

[philcski]

Good field and the draw was reasonable for most of the contenders but the morning line is terrible. It's at 138% so expect some horses to float up from their original number.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Since you’re covered in the win hole, maybe try to take him second and third in the tri or super for a possible big balloons score.

I think that’ll be part of my plan. A couple horses have jumped him for me but I still like his running style and think there’s a good chance he’ll be in the money. And if he wins, I’m going to be happy regardless.

The way Servis is working MS, I’m wondering if Vekoma will get an easy early lead. I don’t see any horse in the race with early speed that can rival Vekoma, other than MS and Omaha Beach.

[Kasept]

GARY YOUNG CLOCK NOTES/VIDS: https://www.garyyoungthoroughbreds.c...ucky-derby-145

[richard burch]

5-Improbable (City Zip), Bob Baffert, Irad Ortiz Jr., 6-1
16-Game Winner (Candy Ride), Bob Baffert, Joel Rosario, 5-1
17-Roadster (Quality Road), Bob Baffert, Florent Geroux, 6-1

...those are some pretty good odds for Baffert horses.

going to BOX EX 5,6,8,11,16,17


looks like rain on Saturday....

SAT
MAY 4
Rain
66°53°
100%
NNE 10 mph 82%

[moses]

Originally Posted by richard burch

5-Improbable (City Zip), Bob Baffert, Irad Ortiz Jr., 6-1
16-Game Winner (Candy Ride), Bob Baffert, Joel Rosario, 5-1
17-Roadster (Quality Road), Bob Baffert, Florent Geroux, 6-1

...those are some pretty good odds for Baffert horses.

going to BOX EX 5,6,11,12,16,17

I expect Omaha to be the PT favorite. If he wins I would break even, if he comes in 2nd there is a little profit, if he comes in 3rd it will be stacks.

I like OB at the bottom of the exotics. Decent chance that he regresses a bit and/or some of the other horses peak at the right time. I’m really hoping the track ends up fast for the Derby. Will continue to monitor the weather.

[richard burch]

Who are the best "mudders" in this race?

[Konk]

Originally Posted by richard burch

Who are the best "mudders" in this race?

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=66148

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by Konk

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=66148

Saw that....thanks and good luck with your selections!

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

Good field and the draw was reasonable for most of the contenders but the morning line is terrible. It's at 138% so expect some horses to float up from their original number.

philcski, that 138% (the total of implied probabilities) corresponds to a hypothetical takeout of 28%. The difference between that 28% and CD's 17.5% takeout isn't as big as one might expect, at least as far as putting up ML line odds goes. If you force the original ML numbers up to fit a 17.5% takeout, then OB's 4-1 would have become 9-2. GW's 5-1 becomes (almost) 6-1. A 20-1 becomes 23-1.

So while you're right that the numbers should float up a bit from the ML, the overall effect may not be very big.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

philcski, that 138% (the total of implied probabilities) corresponds to a hypothetical takeout of 28%. The difference between that 28% and CD's 17.5% takeout isn't as big as one might expect, at least as far as putting up ML line odds goes. If you force the original ML numbers up to fit a 17.5% takeout, then OB's 4-1 would have become 9-2. GW's 5-1 becomes (almost) 6-1. A 20-1 becomes 23-1.

So while you're right that the numbers should float up a bit from the ML, the overall effect may not be very big.

I don’t disagree that horse by horse the impact is relatively small... but that’s because it’s a 20 horse field. Let’s take a 3 horse field instead:
Horse A: 4/5
Horse B: 2/1
Horse C: ?

At a proper ML matching takeout, it should be 2/1. At the 138% ML, it’s 1/1, so a huge difference.

My point is on the most important race in the world, where the participants have been known for weeks, shouldn’t we have a pretty tight ML?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

I don’t disagree that horse by horse the impact is relatively small... but that’s because it’s a 20 horse field. Let’s take a 3 horse field instead:
Horse A: 4/5
Horse B: 2/1
Horse C: ?

At a proper ML matching takeout, it should be 2/1. At the 138% ML, it’s 1/1, so a huge difference.

My point is on the most important race in the world, where the participants have been known for weeks, shouldn’t we have a pretty tight ML?

Too funny, philski. I just did a search, and we had a very similar discussion about a poor Derby ML almost exactly 11 years ago!

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22079

Has anything changed in 11 years?! Check it out.

Anyway, I was curious how this year's 138% compared to some of the other CD stakes races this weekend. Here's what I came up with:

Turf Classic 131%
Pat Day Mile 134%
Amer Turf 136%
Alysheba 131%

and, somewhat weirdly, the Ky Oaks, 99.8%

With a 17.5% track take, the apparent odds from the morning line should add up to 121%. So the Ky Oaks ML odds would appear to be even further off than the Derby ML odds.

At any rate, I agree that the ML should be a set of odds that actually add up to what one might see when the betting is done.

Looking forward to grousing about this again 11 years from now!

--Dunbar

[philcski]

Lol great find. What a bunch of angry math nerds we are!

[LITF]

Any thoughts on the undercard races?

I’m thinking about singling Whitmore to start the pick 5. Seems like Mitole will have to handle some serious heat for the first time. Kinda like Social Paranoia in the American. Hoping Global Campaign draws in to the Pat Day. If not, maybe Hog Creek Hustle. I’ve already lost some money on him might as well keep that going. Qurbaan in the Turf Classic.

Any insights are greatly appreciated.

[Alabama Stakes]

I read that limousine liberal fractured a sesssmoid and has been retired. He will get to live a long life on the farm.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by LITF

Any thoughts on the undercard races?

I’m thinking about singling Whitmore to start the pick 5. Seems like Mitole will have to handle some serious heat for the first time. Kinda like Social Paranoia in the American. Hoping Global Campaign draws in to the Pat Day. If not, maybe Hog Creek Hustle. I’ve already lost some money on him might as well keep that going. Qurbaan in the Turf Classic.

Any insights are greatly appreciated.

Here’s what I’ll offer. I cannot count how many times Churchill is wildly speed crazy to start the day on derby day and fair as heck by the end of the day.

[moses]

Rumor that Mike Smith might get on Cutting Humor now?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

I read that limousine liberal fractured a sesssmoid and has been retired. He will get to live a long life on the farm.

Man that sucks, Ben Colebrook did a wonderful job with this guy. $1.8 million and 4 graded stakes wins, and wasn't showing signs of slowing down.