Lanes End... - Page 2

SniperSB23 · #21 03-23-2007, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think For You Reppo is pretty good actually. Did you ever watch the replay of his 6F debut at Turfway? The chart call is slightly inaccurate....to put it mildly. I thought he got a lousy ride last time, and while the winner was best considering his trouble, For You Reppo ran better than it looks.

Forefathers is the most talented horse in the race, but the race doesn't set up well for him, and he's a big question mark at the distance. I suppose Hard Spun can win but I don't see what the fuss is about him. His races are OK, and he ran fine last time, but he's not worth the price he always ends up.

I'll have to check that out, that figure was enough to scare me off.

zippyneedsawin · #22 03-23-2007, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think For You Reppo is pretty good actually. Did you ever watch the replay of his 6F debut at Turfway? The chart call is slightly inaccurate....to put it mildly. I thought he got a lousy ride last time, and while the winner was best considering his trouble, For You Reppo ran better than it looks.
Forefathers is the most talented horse in the race, but the race doesn't set up well for him, and he's a big question mark at the distance. I suppose Hard Spun can win but I don't see what the fuss is about him. His races are OK, and he ran fine last time, but he's not worth the price he always ends up.

I thought Kent D. made a premature move on the backstretch to put 'Reppo up with the leaders in his last race...(into a pace that went :46+ for the first half mile) the horse looked like he had to maintain a sustained drive for the last 5 furlongs or so. The bad news is, Kent D. is back aboard for this race too!

blackthroatedwind · #23 03-23-2007, 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

I thought Kent D. made a premature move on the backstretch to put 'Reppo up with the leaders in his last race...(into a pace that went :46+ for the first half mile) the horse looked like he had to maintain a sustained drive for the last 5 furlongs or so. The bad news is, Kent D. is back aboard for this race too!

I saw the race the same way.

philcski · #24 03-23-2007, 02:24 PM

Is it just me or is this race exponentially better than the last 3-4 Lanes Ends? At least since when Perfect Drift won it in '02 (when it was known as the Spiral)?

brianwspencer · #25 03-23-2007, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Is it just me or is this race exponentially better than the last 3-4 Lanes Ends? At least since when Perfect Drift won it in '02 (when it was known as the Spiral)?

Last year's renewal was a total laughingstock of a horse race. Who was around at the end? With A City, Seaside Retreat, Malameeze?

Awesome.

JJP · #26 03-23-2007, 03:11 PM

I think Sedgefield is the horse to beat. He probably was the best in his last; just expended a bit too much energy early. And we know he handles the Poly.

Based on recent runnings, the race doesn't even deserve Grade 3 status. Last year's running was sub-horrible.

SniperSB23 · #27 03-23-2007, 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JJP

I think Sedgefield is the horse to beat. He probably was the best in his last; just expended a bit too much energy early. And we know he handles the Poly.

Based on recent runnings, the race doesn't even deserve Grade 3 status. Last year's running was sub-horrible.

This race is at least as good as the G2 San Rafael, the G2 San Vincente, and the G2 San Felipe. The second and third place finishers in those races were Tenfold, Grapelli, Law Breaker, Half Famous, Air Commander, and Level Red.

JJP · #28 03-23-2007, 03:40 PM

We'll see about that. There's a few decent horses and more established turf form here than anything. I think Air Commander would be a solid contender against this bunch, at least if they were running on real dirt. In fact, I doubt any of these would beat him on a regular dirt track. If anything you're just really making a case for the California races being overrated. In general, there's too many graded stakes (especially Grade 1s) for 3YOs.

Danzig · #29 03-23-2007, 04:04 PM

haven't had a chance to look this race over. i'll be pulling for hard spun-but not sure what to think of him after his last. every horse can have a bad day--so was that a bad day, or is it indicative of what he really is? also, teuflesberg didn't compliment him at all next out.
not sure that this race will really have any bearing regarding the derby. but a fun race to watch.

JJP · #30 03-23-2007, 04:15 PM

While Hard Spun was severely overbet, he was wide on both turns; not exactly the recipe to win mile races at Oaklawn. I think Lil E Tee got beat in the Southwest and he rebounded pretty good.

Cajungator26 · #31 03-23-2007, 04:24 PM

I think that Sports Town will be ready to go.

Sightseek · #32 03-23-2007, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I think that Sports Town will be ready to go.

He barely held on in his last race....what makes you think he will be better off here?

ArlJim78 · #33 03-23-2007, 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Last year's renewal was a total laughingstock of a horse race. Who was around at the end? With A City, Seaside Retreat, Malameeze?
Awesome.

That was really weak, last year.

All I can remember was Battaglia screaming "WITH......A......CITY!!!"

why can't that guy learn that to make it exciting you don't have to scream.

Cajungator26 · #34 03-23-2007, 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

He barely held on in his last race....what makes you think he will be better off here?

He's been working incredible and I really like his pedigree for the poly. With A City (RIP) didn't have much of a shot last year either, but this surface seems to favor longshots and Sports Town should be at big odds.

blackthroatedwind · #35 03-23-2007, 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

He's been working incredible and I really like his pedigree for the poly. With A City (RIP) didn't have much of a shot last year either, but this surface seems to favor longshots and Sports Town should be at big odds.

Surfaces cannot " favor longshots ".

Cajungator26 · #36 03-23-2007, 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Surfaces cannot " favor longshots ".

It SEEMS to.

blackthroatedwind · #37 03-23-2007, 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

It SEEMS to.

Once again....that would be incorrect.

Tracks can favor speed horses, closers, inside or outside....but they cannot, by the very definition of the word, favor a horse because of its odds...whether it seems like that to you or not.

SniperSB23 · #38 03-23-2007, 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Once again....that would be incorrect.

Tracks can favor speed horses, closers, inside or outside....but they cannot, by the very definition of the word, favor a horse because of its odds...whether it seems like that to you or not.

Although I suppose you could make the argument that the average bettor is poorer at handicapping polytrack than other surfaces so it is more likely that a longshot wins. The surface doesn't favor them, the bettor is just poor at recognizing which horses will do well.

Cajungator26 · #39 03-23-2007, 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Once again....that would be incorrect.

Tracks can favor speed horses, closers, inside or outside....but they cannot, by the very definition of the word, favor a horse because of its odds...whether it seems like that to you or not.

I understand that, Andy. Perhaps it's coincidental (let me pull out my crystal ball), but horses at longer odds seem to win there. That's all I was saying.

blackthroatedwind · #40 03-23-2007, 04:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Although I suppose you could make the argument that the average bettor is poorer at handicapping polytrack than other surfaces so it is more likely that a longshot wins. The surface doesn't favor them, the bettor is just poor at recognizing which horses will do well.

It's possible that the odds are not quite as true on the new surface but I would guess that, minus takeout, even at Turfway, with the large sample, the horses ran very close to their odds over time....minus outlyers like regular surfaces.