Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > The Paddock
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #21  
Old 03-27-2007, 01:01 PM
Linny's Avatar
Linny Linny is offline
Oaklawn
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: NY
Posts: 2,104
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
The Wood is free money for any of these that can really run. There isn't anybody top flight pointing for it.
All you have to do is beat Circular Quay and Nobiz, and you get all the "free money" you can count. It's the SA Derby that looks light.
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 03-27-2007, 01:01 PM
philcski's Avatar
philcski philcski is offline
Goodwood
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Mission Viejo, CA
Posts: 8,872
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajungator26
Nobiz?
Is Nobiz going to the Wood? Good.
I thought Blue Grass. But I guess that would make sense with Tagg, and he's proven over the Aqu strip.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 03-27-2007, 01:02 PM
philcski's Avatar
philcski philcski is offline
Goodwood
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Mission Viejo, CA
Posts: 8,872
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Linny
All you have to do is beat Circular Quay and Nobiz, and you get all the "free money" you can count.
I heard Arkansas for CQ. Has this changed?
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 03-27-2007, 01:05 PM
Linny's Avatar
Linny Linny is offline
Oaklawn
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: NY
Posts: 2,104
Default

I agree about AGS needing earning but remember, he'll be one of the top 2 choices in the Blue Grass, with a %750k purse. If he's one of the choices, why should he duck the spot and go elsewhere?
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 03-27-2007, 01:07 PM
lemoncrush's Avatar
lemoncrush lemoncrush is offline
Randwyck
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Blaine, MN
Posts: 1,408
Default

AGS could run in the coolmore lexington I imagine, but the 2 weeks is obviously the issue. He needs graded earnings, although if we don't see any more upsets, I think he gets in regardless.
Pletcher's runners:
CQ - Wood
Scat Daddy - florida derby
Any Given Saturday - Bluegrass
Cowtown Cat - Illinois Derby
Sam P - Santa Anita Derby
Deadly Dealer - Arkansas Derby

The Bluegrass will be loaded, but the timing (3 weeks out) travel logistics (easy van ride to Churchill after) and the forgiving polytrack surface are all too important to pass up for horses who are already in the derby with earnings and just need a final tune up.
Reply With Quote
  #26  
Old 03-27-2007, 01:22 PM
Linny's Avatar
Linny Linny is offline
Oaklawn
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: NY
Posts: 2,104
Default

Ags is not in the top 30 right now but it looks like about 12-14 of those on the list are not considered Derby candidates right now. AGS could probably get in with a 2nd in the Blue Grass. I suppose the Lexington is a last ditch chance but running that often is not Pletcher's style.
I know AGS was second in the KY Jockey Club and the TB Derby, how much $$$ does he have? I'm guessing about $70k in graded earnings...
Reply With Quote
  #27  
Old 03-27-2007, 01:24 PM
cakes44's Avatar
cakes44 cakes44 is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,744
Default

He's at about $102,000.
Reply With Quote
  #28  
Old 03-27-2007, 01:36 PM
Linny's Avatar
Linny Linny is offline
Oaklawn
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: NY
Posts: 2,104
Default

Cakes, I think you are right, the TB derby was $300k so he made $60k there. The 2yo race where he was second was about $200k, I think.
Reply With Quote
  #29  
Old 03-27-2007, 02:13 PM
pointman's Avatar
pointman pointman is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 15,693
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Linny
I agree about AGS needing earning but remember, he'll be one of the top 2 choices in the Blue Grass, with a %750k purse. If he's one of the choices, why should he duck the spot and go elsewhere?
Since AGS is on the fringe of earnings my point was that he is sure to get in with a 1st or 2nd at either the BG or AD, the difference being his chances are better in the AD since it seems to be coming up a bit light as opposed to facing a better field in the Bluegrass. Although, if he does have $102K he is likely to get in as I don't think a horse with over $100K has failed to get in the Derby yet. Just thought that Graded earnings were an issue, if you want to make sure you can get enough to get in, Arkansas seems to be an easier place than BG. Forgot anout Santa Anita, that it is coming up light as well.
Reply With Quote
  #30  
Old 03-27-2007, 02:28 PM
zippyneedsawin's Avatar
zippyneedsawin zippyneedsawin is offline
Oaklawn
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 2,064
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
I heard Arkansas for CQ. Has this changed?
last I heard it was the Wood for CQ... I wasn't aware if that changed.
__________________
Alcohol, the cause and solution to all of life's problems. -Homer Simpson
Reply With Quote
  #31  
Old 03-27-2007, 02:35 PM
Sightseek's Avatar
Sightseek Sightseek is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 11,024
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by lemoncrush
AGS could run in the coolmore lexington I imagine, but the 2 weeks is obviously the issue. He needs graded earnings, although if we don't see any more upsets, I think he gets in regardless.
Pletcher's runners:
CQ - Wood
Scat Daddy - florida derby
Any Given Saturday - Bluegrass
Cowtown Cat - Illinois Derby
Sam P - Santa Anita Derby
Deadly Dealer - Arkansas Derby

The Bluegrass will be loaded, but the timing (3 weeks out) travel logistics (easy van ride to Churchill after) and the forgiving polytrack surface are all too important to pass up for horses who are already in the derby with earnings and just need a final tune up.
You can always identify who is playing TVG Fantasy and who isn't.
__________________
Tod Marks Photo - Daybreak over Oklahoma
Reply With Quote
  #32  
Old 03-27-2007, 02:35 PM
cakes44's Avatar
cakes44 cakes44 is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,744
Default

I'm guessing the cut-off for graded earnings will be closer to $150,000-$175,000 this year than the $100,000 of years past.
Reply With Quote
  #33  
Old 03-27-2007, 02:45 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is online now
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 43,430
Default

Derby earnings level has been about $135,000-$160,000..

The fields as they appear currently:

FLORIDA DERBY:

Hal's My Hope, J. Rivera
Boogie Boggs, J. Bravo
J'burg Star, R. Maraagh
Notional, R. Albarado
Stormello, V. Espinoza
Scat Daddy, J. Velasquez
Adore the Gold, E. Prado
Chelokee, M. Guidry
Imawildandcrazyguy, R. Bejarano
Bold Start, Manny Cruz


ILLINOIS DERBY:

Cowtown Cat*
Cobalt Blue
Freesgood
Catman Running


WOOD MEMORIAL:

Nobiz Likeshobiz
Circular Quay
Sightseeing
Summer Doldrums
Sir Whimsey
Cowtown Cat*


SANTA ANITA DERBY:

Sam P.
Boutrous
Bwana Bull
Liquidity
Medici Code
King of the Roxy
Song of Navarone


ARKANSAS DERBY:

Ketchikan
Teufelsberg
Officer Rockett
Deadly Dealer
Curlin


BLUE GRASS:

Street Sense
Any Given Saturday
Hard Spun
Zanjero
Birdbirdistheword
Great Hunter
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
Reply With Quote
  #34  
Old 03-27-2007, 03:01 PM
philcski's Avatar
philcski philcski is offline
Goodwood
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Mission Viejo, CA
Posts: 8,872
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
Derby earnings level has been about $135,000-$160,000..

The fields as they appear currently:

FLORIDA DERBY:

Hal's My Hope, J. Rivera
Boogie Boggs, J. Bravo
J'burg Star, R. Maraagh
Notional, R. Albarado
Stormello, V. Espinoza
Scat Daddy, J. Velasquez
Adore the Gold, E. Prado
Chelokee, M. Guidry
Imawildandcrazyguy, R. Bejarano
Bold Start, Manny Cruz


ILLINOIS DERBY:

Cowtown Cat*
Cobalt Blue
Freesgood
Catman Running


WOOD MEMORIAL:

Nobiz Likeshobiz
Circular Quay
Sightseeing
Summer Doldrums
Sir Whimsey
Cowtown Cat*


SANTA ANITA DERBY:

Sam P.
Boutrous
Bwana Bull
Liquidity
Medici Code
King of the Roxy
Song of Navarone


ARKANSAS DERBY:

Ketchikan
Teufelsberg
Officer Rockett
Deadly Dealer
Curlin


BLUE GRASS:

Street Sense
Any Given Saturday
Hard Spun
Zanjero
Birdbirdistheword
Great Hunter
Song of Navarone is reported to be out of the SA Derby with a quarter crack as per the DRF...

Thanks for the list!
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
Reply With Quote
  #35  
Old 03-27-2007, 03:08 PM
Cajungator26's Avatar
Cajungator26 Cajungator26 is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Hossy's Mom's basement.
Posts: 10,217
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
Song of Navarone is reported to be out of the SA Derby with a quarter crack as per the DRF...

Thanks for the list!
Damn, that sucks. I liked him!
Reply With Quote
  #36  
Old 03-27-2007, 03:12 PM
smuthg's Avatar
smuthg smuthg is offline
Woodbine
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Springfield, MO
Posts: 1,010
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
Derby earnings level has been about $135,000-$160,000..

The fields as they appear currently:


ARKANSAS DERBY:

Ketchikan
Teufelsberg
Officer Rockett
Deadly Dealer
Curlin


BLUE GRASS:

Street Sense
Any Given Saturday
Hard Spun
Zanjero
Birdbirdistheword
Great Hunter
I think this further begs the question, why wouldn't Any Given Sat. pass on the Bluegrass for the Arkansas Derby? More money, weaker field? Does the Grade 1 mean that so much that they would risk missing the Derby if they run out of the money at Keeneland?
Reply With Quote
  #37  
Old 03-27-2007, 03:19 PM
philcski's Avatar
philcski philcski is offline
Goodwood
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Mission Viejo, CA
Posts: 8,872
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajungator26
Damn, that sucks. I liked him!
I usually don't care much for the Sunland Derby runners but this one seemed to have some talent.

Still possible for the Preakness I'm sure.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
Reply With Quote
  #38  
Old 03-27-2007, 03:50 PM
Linny's Avatar
Linny Linny is offline
Oaklawn
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: NY
Posts: 2,104
Default

The G1 is very important for the connections of AGS as he is owned by WinStar Farm which is like Coolmore Light. They are a stud operation meaning that racing for them is a means to an end, breeding. As a KY based outfit, the win at KEE is significant as well.
Arky clearly looks easier, he'd be 1-2 there, but I figure he'll be 2-1 in the Blue Grass anyhow. It's not like he's got only an outside shot there.
Reply With Quote
  #39  
Old 03-27-2007, 03:55 PM
lemoncrush's Avatar
lemoncrush lemoncrush is offline
Randwyck
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Blaine, MN
Posts: 1,408
Default

Updated Earings list (horses highlighted are injured, retired or unlikely to enter in Derby). There are others on the list that are probably long shots to make it as well (BirdBird, Kingoftheroxy, Sedgefield, etc..)
I believe Any Given Saturday is around 33 or so on the list.

1) Street Sense
2) Dreaming of Anna
3) Circular Quay
4) Holy Roman Emperor
5) Great Hunter
6) Scat Daddy
7) BirdBirdistheword
8) Stormello
9) Hard Spun
10 Rags to Riches
11) Nobizlikeshobiz
12) Notional
13 King of the Roxy
14 Romance is Diane
15 Xchanger
16 Tiz Wonderful
17 Pirate’s Deputy
18 Kirklees
19 Mount Nelson
20 Curlin
21 Officer Rocket
22 Cobalt Blue
23 Horse Greeley
24 Admiral of the Fleet
25 Cowtown Cat
26 Skip Code
27 Zanjero
28 Ketichikan
29 Sedgefield
30 Liquidity
Reply With Quote
  #40  
Old 03-27-2007, 03:58 PM
SniperSB23 SniperSB23 is offline
Hialeah Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Albany, NY
Posts: 6,086
Default

Pirates Deputy just worked the other day. I hope they don't decide to throw him in a prep like the Lexington where he runs 4th or 5th and then they press on to the Derby with him and cost a more deserving horse a shot.
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:11 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.