TG Sheet players...Scat Daddy question

[Scav]

Alright I JUST LOST EVERYTHING I ****ED WROTE

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Scav

Alright I JUST LOST EVERYTHING I ****ED WROTE

WTF?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Past Post

Chelokee looks slow to me also,but so did Curlin. Beware Here.

Curlin is slow. He won a slow race as a slow horse. It happens.

[Rootdog1]

I prefer Adore over Stormello...but maybe even Wildncrazy more then either of them.

[Scav]

Notional - great progression after that monster Debut, closely getting back to that number which makes him a strong Derby candidate

wildcrazyguy - no

Scat Daddy - I agree with Randall, him getting back to that number means he is in great form. he might very well explode in this race, which is fine with me because I am not playing him in the derby

Adore - no

Stormello - another derby prospect. I am praying that he runs about a 2 or a 2.5 in this race so I can just unload on him in the Derby. Derby will be 3rd race off the layoff and I expect a 2nd or 3rd here. Hope he doesn't run his eyeballs out

Cheloadsfiaolee - no, too slow, will get overplayed because of Barbaro angle

Boggs - like the pair up from last, could mean move forward, probably not forward enough

John Star - should have sold when had the chance

Bird - Ran his two year old number off the shelf, which is HUGE. According to Jerry Brown of TG, that race was better then it looked out of him with that '!' notion on his sheet. Beware tomorrow and also depending tomorrows race, beware in the derby

So, all in all, for Tomorrow's race, I like Scat Daddy and Bird to run well. But, thinking ahead to the Derby, I think both Notional and Stormello have favorable sheets and with slight move forwards tomorrow, could be great plays on Derby Day

[Past Post]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Curlin is slow. He won a slow race as a slow horse. It happens.

Do you consider this a slow race ?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

WTF?

I had this whole write up going down and I f'n lost it....no idea how...I just did the condensed version above

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Since this is a thoro thread.
He ran a 4 last time, so his numbers are going backwards. Add the suicide work and I can't see him winning this. He is the one most likely to X in this race for my money.

A few more things about ATG and then I'm done. . .

It seems to me that ATG is just a very fast-working horse-
He ran a :58 5F and :59 5F before the Swale and then ran a 102 Beyer

I know Andy, etc. . . consider "trainerspeak" worthless, but the fact that Gorham said that the work was a function of track speed makes a lot of sense. . .

I'm not a big Tgraph follower but based on the Beyers it looks like he should run close to a career best here. . . he ran a top off the lay-off, then regressed a little bit and will now be 3rd off the lay-off in this race. . .

[Scav]

I might be rethinking Scat in this race. That last was really huge, I am on Bird now

My hope is that Stormello and Notional run good races and good numbers so I have reasons to get nuts on the Derby

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Past Post

Do you consider this a slow race ?

Don't know. I'll wait to see. A few horses in here could run a fast number tomorrow.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Scav

I might be rethinking Scat in this race. That last was really huge, I am on Bird now

My hope is that Stormello and Notional run good races and good numbers so I have reasons to get nuts on the Derby

Bird's line, while interesting gets less so considering the post. The wraps did come off last time, if they are back on I'd steer clear. He could be in the tri for sure.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Bird's line, while interesting gets less so considering the post. The wraps did come off last time, if they are back on I'd steer clear. He could be in the tri for sure.

He ran his best race with the wraps on. . . But he won't win this one either way. . .

[Scav]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Bird's line, while interesting gets less so considering the post. The wraps did come off last time, if they are back on I'd steer clear. He could be in the tri for sure.

Your wrap theory was blown out of the water there, he won with them first on.

That is a pretty solid number off a 100 day layoff Randall.....He moves forward a little, he could be a great price play come the Derby. I do worry about only 21 days and shipping, and also about FG numbers being somewhat fast sometimes

[Rootdog1]

never liked bird, but figs say he is a contender....he wont get my $.

Since this is a TG thread......any chance James Wilfred hits the board at 20-1 in the Aventura......questions abound with the field, and I see speed and fade for many in here. No way he wins, but exotic filler maybe?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

He ran his best race with the wraps on. . . But he won't win this one either way. . .

Not true, he matched his last number without wraps....And you can squeeze a few big races out of them in wraps. See FuPeg. Here, and then gone....But Birdie isn't really that good to begin with.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Not true, he matched his last number without wraps....And you can squeeze a few big races out of them in wraps. See FuPeg. Here, and then gone....But Birdie isn't really that good to begin with.

I agree about Bird might not being that talented, but numbers don't lie, but they do hide some things sometimes. If you don't believe Birds number, then you won't believe Circular's or whoever else ran in that races' number

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Not true, he matched his last number without wraps....And you can squeeze a few big races out of them in wraps. See FuPeg. Here, and then gone....But Birdie isn't really that good to begin with.

If McPeek was trying to squeeze a few big races out of him, why would he take the wraps off for the La. Derby?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Scav

Your wrap theory was blown out of the water there, he won with them first on.

That is a pretty solid number off a 100 day layoff Randall.....He moves forward a little, he could be a great price play come the Derby. I do worry about only 21 days and shipping, and also about FG numbers being somewhat fast sometimes

Horses win with wraps all the time. That doesn't blow any theory out of the water....This is from a blog and repost of part of an article about this topic.

Ed Fountaine of the NY Post is a bit skeptical of Street Sense. Not because he's found the shortest way home in his last two races, but because he came out on Saturday wearing front bandages, as he did in the Juvenile in November.

One explanation for the Breeders' Cup Jinx is that nine Juvenile winners never even made it to the Derby. Might "Sense" fall among their number? When he wore front bandages for the first time in the BC Juvenile, trainer Carl Nafzger said it was to protect him after he bruised a foot. When Street Sense came out wearing them again 41/2 months later, you had to wonder if the rumors over the winter about his physical condition had substance.

Now, front bandages on a Triple Crown contender don't make him an automatic toss. In recent years, Fusaichi Pegasus won the Derby, Smarty Jones the Derby and Preakness, and Afleet Alex the Preakness and Belmont Stakes with front wraps on. Then again, none of them lasted long after that. Fusaichi won one race after the Derby; "Smarty" and "Alex" never raced again after the Belmont.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Randall I see you are very anti wraps. Why? Some trainers always use them no matter what, just a matter of preference.

B/c I gamble all the time and history tells me all I need to know of young horses and wraps. See above post from the blog.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

No offense but Ed Fountaine knows about as much as my dog about horse racing.

This isn't a comment on his horse knowledge. But let's be honest, those with wraps added in their 3 yr old season leading up to the grind of the Triple Crown haven't even been around for the Travers in most cases.