Show Parlay

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by jman5581

I would be more than happy to start fresh, but what's wrong with me using picks that I posted to this board (in advance of the race itself) for the last contest. I've just posted the payouts and cumulative returns at the top of this thread. As far as I'm concerned that meets the criteria of any pick I would make in the "experiment." I made the picks...it should at least count for the 1st of 20 since I disclosed them in the Showvivor thread.

jman, I don't doubt that you made and posted the picks. But it's bad statistics to decide after the fact that you are going to include some results you already obtained in a longer study that wasn't specified ahead of time.

Let's say I walk by a roulette table, and I see that red has come up 5 times in a row (on the history display). If I see one more red come up, does that make it REALLY likely that red is a good strategy?

If you had said ahead of time, 'guys, I'm going to test a show parlay theory and post all my picks here', then fine. Those first 2 sets would belong. But it's bad statistical practice to decide after-the-fact that certain bets count.

At any rate, if there is any merit in show parlays, you should be able to demonstrate it without resorting to past bets.

--Dunbar

[jman5581]

I guess the way I see it, I was at the roulette table playing....so, by your analogy, it would be okay to use as part of the sample. I could very easily say, "Hey, I picked red, I'll try red 19 more times and that'll make 20"....

If I do this, it will be a rather long experiment. I will likely use the most recent picks I made as the first sample because they're there for everyone to see if they wish, so long as that thread doesn't get deleted.

If it's even remotely close at the end of the experiment I suppose I could always do one more round.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by jman5581

I guess the way I see it, I was at the roulette table playing....so, by your analogy, it would be okay to use as part of the sample. I could very easily say, "Hey, I picked red, I'll try red 19 more times and that'll make 20"....

If I do this, it will be a rather long experiment. I will likely use the most recent picks I made as the first sample because they're there for everyone to see if they wish, so long as that thread doesn't get deleted.

If it's even remotely close at the end of the experiment I suppose I could always do one more round.

This would be about like Grits hitting a $100 exacta and telling randall, "see? let's compare exactas to place bets, but I want to start with my $100 exacta."

jman, you will get into trouble down the line if you don't understand that a test has to be well-defined before the test starts. You will find angles that look good, but are really just flukes of the way you are measuring.

--Dunbar

[jman5581]

Dunbar...I'd do it just for you buddy.

[jman5581]

May as well get this thing started because it's going to take long enough as it is!!

Here's what I'll do... the object of the experiment is to see how good a bet the show parlay is (for me). I will take a hypothetical $100 and bet it to show on a horse, take the payout and bet it on another horse, until I reach 10 picks. After 10, that round is over, I will document the payouts and move on to the next round. If I pick a horse that doesn't show before reaching 10, I will start a new round. I will do this 20 rounds and we will see how it goes. I've said I think I can do this about a third of the time (although that's really just a hunch)...

So, for today...a couple picks from SA (all to Show of course)

Race 2 - 3 Heatseeker (2nd) Paid $3.00....Running Total $150

Race 3 - 6 Cantbeatwhatucantc (Won) Paid $2.20....Running Total $165

Bay Meadows

Race 3 - Blue Eyed Blonde (2nd) Paid $2.20....Running Total $182 82% return on the day...I might just quit right here.


This is all for today as these were the only races that fit my strategy...actually, there was 1 more at BM, but I missed it in scanning the program.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by jman5581

May as well get this thing started because it's going to take long enough as it is!!

Here's what I'll do... the object of the experiment is to see how good a bet the show parlay is (for me). I will take a hypothetical $100 and bet it to show on a horse, take the payout and bet it on another horse, until I reach 10 picks. After 10, that round is over, I will document the payouts and move on to the next round. If I pick a horse that doesn't show before reaching 10, I will start a new round. I will do this 20 rounds and we will see how it goes. I've said I think I can do this about a third of the time (although that's really just a hunch)...

So, for today...a couple picks from SA (all to Show of course)

Race 2 - 3 Heatseeker (2nd) Paid $3.00....Running Total $150

Race 3 - 6 Cantbeatwhatucantc (Won) Paid $2.20....Running Total $165

Bay Meadows

Race 3 - Blue Eyed Blonde (2nd) Paid $2.20....Running Total $182


This is all for today as these were the only races that fit my strategy...actually, there was 1 more at BM, but I missed it in scanning the program.

jman, that's great. I didn't think you were really going to tackle it already.

You've spelled out the conditions very precisely, too.

One suggestion:

Don't post your results into the same post (via editing) as you post your picks. If you edit your picks post, it makes it hard to verify that you aren't past posting. You can just put up a follow-up post that shows how your bets did that day, and gives an updated overall recap. If that seems like too much extra work, I'll be glad to do the stat-posting. All you'd have to do is put up your picks. Let me know.

The moderators may want to move this thread to "Contests" or "Selections". [EDIT: Ha! I didn't remember that they already HAD moved it! Thanks, moderators!]

Nice start on the parlay! Just 7 more to go. btw, take your time with this--it doesn't matter if it takes a long time to get enough picks for all 20 trials.

--Dunbar

[jman5581]

No time better than the present! Thought I would take advantage of a couple spots today. Don't worry, this will take months most likely to get 20 rounds....unless I do 3 and out on every round. In that case, it would only take a few weeks....

Don't worry about tabulating everything. I will keep track of what's what... Trust me, I won't change picks once I've posted them, without disclosing it of course. Set your email up to subscribe to this thread and you'll get every post as I make them! (before any edits)

Here's to 7 more for round 1....and hopefully many more $3.00 payouts!!

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by jman5581

No time better than the present! Thought I would take advantage of a couple spots today. Don't worry, this will take months most likely to get 20 rounds....unless I do 3 and out on every round. In that case, it would only take a few weeks....

Don't worry about tabulating everything. I will keep track of what's what... Trust me, I won't change picks once I've posted them, without disclosing it of course. Set your email up to subscribe to this thread and you'll get every post as I make them! (before any edits)

Here's to 7 more for round 1....and hopefully many more $3.00 payouts!!

Hate to admit it, but I didn't realize you could subscribe that way. See, I've already learned something from your test!

--Dunbar

[jman5581]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Hate to admit it, but I didn't realize you could subscribe that way. See, I've already learned something from your test!

--Dunbar

No doubt. Make sure you manage your subscriptions though because it's convenient, but loads the inbox up in a hurry if you're subscribed to very many threads!

[jman5581]

I see some plays coming up on Wednesday for Bay Meadows. Perhaps one at SA, AQ and OP as well and, believe it or not, one from Fairmount on Tuesday. Will have to look into it more to see which ones to play. But, as you said, no rush...

[jman5581]

Pending any scratches, I will play the following:

Fairmount Park Tuesday:

Race 6 - 5 Lexi's Moon (a Ralph Martinez/Lou O'Brien special)

at Bay Meadows on Wednesday...
Race 1 - 5 Justice is Brief

Race 2 - 3 PR's Princess

Race 3 - 6 Cliff Dweller

[jman5581]

One more, OP for Wed....

Race 3 - 5 Adore You

[brianwspencer]

Hey, thanks for doing this. It's interesting, though not something I'd ever be that interested in doing with my own money. On the other hand, it might be a fun, safe(r) way to play with some friends this summer at AP who aren't comfortable footing portions of multi-race wagers.

[jman5581]

Race 6 - 5 Lexi's Moon (a Ralph Martinez/Lou O'Brien special) - (Won) Paid $2.60.... Running Total $237.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by jman5581

Pending any scratches, I will play the following:

Fairmount Park Tuesday:

Race 6 - 5 Lexi's Moon (a Ralph Martinez/Lou O'Brien special)

at Bay Meadows on Wednesday...
Race 1 - 5 Justice is Brief

Race 2 - 3 PR's Princess

Race 3 - 6 Cliff Dweller

Justice is Brief finished out of the money. I'm going to assume that you are starting a new series with Race 2 at BM.

(it's just before the race as I write this.)

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Good, PR's Princess won. So the new series starts with a win. (and more important, no reason for us to disagree about procedure! ;>)

--Dunbar

[jman5581]

Round 1 ended on the 6th try....Justice is Brief ran out of the money, but not until after Adore You ran third at OP returning $2.20. The running total came to a halt at $261.

Round 2 started off right but ended abruptly....

PR's Princess returned $2.20 to bring the running total to $110, but Cliff Dweller had to be a slug and finish 4th.

Round 3 will commence at a time TBD as I will be out of town all weekend. At this pace, I could be finished by the end of April.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by jman5581

Round 1 ended on the 6th try....Justice is Brief ran out of the money, but not until after Adore You ran third at OP returning $2.20. The running total came to a halt at $261.

Round 2 started off right but ended abruptly....

PR's Princess returned $2.20 to bring the running total to $110, but Cliff Dweller had to be a slug and finish 4th.

Round 3 will commence at a time TBD as I will be out of town all weekend. At this pace, I could be finished by the end of April.

You shouldn't be too discouraged. You only need about 33% to look very good.

--Dunbar

[jman5581]

Okay, get started with Round 3 of this madness....

Today at Finger Lakes

Race 1
pp5 Kimry Moor

Race 3
pp1 A Very Young Jet

Fairmount Park

Race 1
Entries 1 and 1A - Monetary Monarch and White Heat

Race 4
pp3 Rock of Fame

[jman5581]

I guess there was no show wagering on the 4th at FP? Alive to the first three, but I would have gone out in round 4 with the 4th at FP had there been show wagering....