Beyer Fig from Saturday

[Uncle Daddy]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Looks like those hoping for a fair price on Street Sense will get their wish. Can't see him going off at lower than 6/1 with a 93 BSF staring bettors right in the face.

I agree, stupid money will atalk about the Juvenile jinx and you may get 5 or 6 to 1. If you still like Graet Hunter, I would think it jumps to 15 0r 20

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I couldn't be happier. That's pretty much exactly what I wanted to happen as far as odds.

Now I can focus on a pick-4 on Derby Day and a healthy win bet on Sense with the potential for a good return.

Wait, you're actually gonna be betting?! Just kidding.

[XIIPointStables]

That's a good point about the SS Beyers/novice money. Even the weekend player (like myself) might see the last three Beyers

108 BC Juv
102 TB Derby
93 Blue Grass

and concur the horse is going the wrong way and the price may be a healthy 6 or 7 to 1.

We can hope at least.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by XIIPointStables

That's a good point about the SS Beyers/novice money. Even the weekend player (like myself) might see the last three Beyers

108 BC Juv
102 TB Derby
93 Blue Grass

and concur the horse is going the wrong way and the price may be a healthy 6 or 7 to 1.

We can hope at least.

That's definitely right. I think that even some of us self-proclaimed "non-novice" bettors will look at the Form and be subconsciously pushed away from Street Sense because of that pattern. While most of us here are rational enough to see past it, I think some other bettors looking for a reason to play against him will shy away.

For the record, I think he has a great shot and he'll be on all of my tickets.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Wait, you're actually gonna be betting?! Just kidding.

GASP! Yep, I'm even willing to ruin my week by working overtime on Tuesday to have extra cash for Derby day.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

i think beyer is right on this ...he needs to give an honest account of all paramiters....and this fig is about right for what went on..

hooves, I'm not sure Beyer should be adjusting figs because of different pace scenarios.

Beyer has never tried to give an honest account of all parameters. If he doesn't try to adjust a fig to account for a huge bias or a terrible trip or a loose-on-the-lead benefit, then why should he now take pace factors into account? The figs were originally a way to compare the final times of races run at different tracks, and races run on different days at the same track. When Beyer deviates from that vision, he risks undermining his own figs.

--Dunbar

[Travis Stone]

The Derby was not run on Saturday. I'm still on the Street Sense bandwagon, I think he's just a notch above his competition. I posted a brief blog about it at The Dispatch - he lost some momentum in the stretch and still ran well despite being on the wrong lead. You must also consider potential regression off the Tampa Bay Derby, which is a possibility. Either way, the field is evenly matched and it should be a great horse race!

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I really don't think that the poly track is to blame for the figure as there have been some good figures run on it, by these horses.

I say its more to do with the riders and how they decided to allow the pace to unfold. I think its a riders reaction to how the poly is playing and not wanting to compromise their horses chances.

Agreed, the opening quarter was 26 and 1 I think...just really crawling alone.
I was actually surprised the horse on the lead didnt go gate to wire with those fractions.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

Agreed, the opening quarter was 26 and 1 I think...just really crawling alone.
I was actually surprised the horse on the lead didnt go gate to wire with those fractions.

and what, 51 and 2 for the half....teuf a definite bet against if he faces a good field again, if he was any kind of horse he'd have held on with that 'pace'.
still amazed that dominican was able to pass street sense, all things considered. yeah, a head bob....

that really was an exciting finish--almost a turf race at the end, with four across at the line.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

The Derby was not run on Saturday. I'm still on the Street Sense bandwagon, I think he's just a notch above his competition. I posted a brief blog about it at The Dispatch - he lost some momentum in the stretch and still ran well despite being on the wrong lead. You must also consider potential regression off the Tampa Bay Derby, which is a possibility. Either way, the field is evenly matched and it should be a great horse race!

If regression was to be expected after the TB Derby, why wouldn't there be a good chance of further regression from two tough races back-to-back off the lay-off?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Cardus

There is no way to quantify this, but my impression is that novice bettors' money comprises a small percentage of the Kentucky Derby mutuel wagers. The whales in the game use these sheets and figures.

The novice bettors -- people who wager only a few times each year, or only on each Triple Crown race -- wager $10 or $20 on their selections, while the whales are putting up thousands of dollars on the race.

I don't know. There are a lot of "big shots" who come out on Derby day and bet hundreds of dollars at a time without more than a passing knowledge of racing.

[whodey17]

The faster one learns that beyers are a bunch of fooey the faster one becomes a better handicapper.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by whodey17

The faster one learns that beyers are a bunch of fooey the faster one becomes a better handicapper.

I wish more players thought the same. I think your saying U don't know how to use them.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I don't know. There are a lot of "big shots" who come out on Derby day and bet hundreds of dollars at a time without more than a passing knowledge of racing.

I agree with Ateam about this. On Derby Day, there are far more "big shots" with deep pockets betting equal thousands to match anything the whales are churning.

Michael Jordan, Kid Rock, and every other celebrity, sports superstar, politician, and CEO at Churchill and throughout the country, going to the windows, is not saying . . . "give me $20 to win on the 9 horse."

Many are betting hundreds, and thousands.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by whodey17

The faster one learns that beyers are a bunch of fooey the faster one becomes a better handicapper.

I didn't ridicule your silly post in the selections room last night and this is the thanks I get?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

That one was hard for me as well.

It was a true test of self control.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

he thinks he may have actually gotten it right.

Think is a good answer. What a joke

Originally Posted by Grits

I agree with Ateam about this. On Derby Day, there are far more "big shots" with deep pockets betting equal thousands to match anything the whales are churning.

Michael Jordan, Kid Rock, and every other celebrity, sports superstar, politician, and CEO at Churchill and throughout the country, going to the windows, is not saying . . . "give me $20 to win on the 9 horse."

Many are betting hundreds, and thousands.

well if they've already locked onto the 9 horse there go the odds on the winner

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cardus

Shouldn't the figure -- which as everyone should know is extremely difficult to compose given the lack of Polytrack experience to date -- be exclusively the product of the time of that race run at Keeneland on Saturday?

If that was the case, and they didn't "cut the figure loose", the Blue Grass number would have come back in the low-to-mid 80's.

Because mistakes compound themselves in the figure making process, a man made speed figure will be cut loose in an instance like that, and numbers will be assigned that fall in line that fit with the previous numbers of the runners in the race.

Stream Cat, who's career top Beyer was an 88 coming into Saturday, ran 13 Beyer points faster than the Blue Grass on raw time. The Mott filly did so as well.

[10 pnt move up]

I am interested to see what a few other figure makers come up with for the blue grass.