Derby Future Odds, Presented by Dunbar

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Hockey, here's how you check whether the odds add to 100% (or to 116%, or whatever you are shooting for.)

Take each horse's odds, and calculate 1/(1+odds). Then add them up.

So, for Curlin you'd have 1/(1+4.5) = 0.182.
for Street Sense, you'd have 1/(1+6) = 0.142.
and so on down to Slew's Tizzy at 1/(1+100) = 0.010

When I add those up for your line, I get 1.045 (=104.5%).

It may be an interesting exercise to try to produce a morning line with a 16% takeout (to see how close you can come to the bettors?), but I think it's much more useful to work on a line where the odds add to 100%. If your "100% line" is good, then you can look for bets on horses with odds higher than those in your line. You can't do that when your line is a 16% takeout line. (well, you can do it, but you have to go far enough over to allow for the takeout.)

--Dunbar

PS--to convert the odds to takeout, there is actually one more step. You take the total (1.045 in your case), and calculate 1/1.045 = 0.957. That's the "pay back". The track take is 1 - "payback" = 1 - 0.957 = 4.3%.

For example, if you really want a 16% takeout line, then when you add up the terms 1/(1+odds) for each of your horses, it should add to 119%. Then the last step shows that 1 - 1/1.19 = 16%. Hope I didn't lose you on that one.

Thanks! That helps a lot. . .

[Dunbar]

4/26 update
Some more big jumps at Pinny. Note Dominican, Great Hunter, and SamP in particular. Best odds on Street Sense drop from 7-1 to 5.25-1.

AGS up to 16.4-1 at Pinny
Cowtown Cat up from 23.57-1 to 30-1 at Pinny
Dominican up from 24-1 to 35-1 at Pinny
Great Hunter up from 26-1 to 35-1 at Pinny
Hard Spun down from 19.66-1 to 17.22-1 at Pinny
SamP up from 45-1 to 60-1 at Pinny
Scat Daddy down from 12.32 to 7.29 at Pinny (now 9-1 at World)
Stormello down from 75-1 to 30-1 at Pinny
Street Sense down from 7-1 to 5.25 at TheGreek
Tiago down from 22-1 to 14.71-1 at Pinny (still 20.5-1 at Greek)

Here is the updated list.

AnyGivSat'day 16.4 Pinny (15 Bodog)
Chelokee 30 Pinny (25.5 Greek)
CircularQuay 11 World
Cobalt Blue 100 Pinny (52.5 Greek)
Cowtown Cat 30 Pinny (22.5 Greek)
Curlin 4.65 Greek
Dominican 35 Pinny (22.5 Greek)
Great Hunter 35 Pinny (20 Bodog)
Hard Spun 17.22 Pinny (15.25 Greek)
Liquidity 50 World
Nobiz Shobiz 9 World
ReportDuty 125 Pinny (100 Bodog)
Sam P 60 Pinny (45 Bodog)
Scat Daddy 9 World
Stormello 45.5 Greek
Storm in May 125 Pinny (100 Bodog)
Street Sense 5.4 Pinny (5.25 Greek)
Teuflesberg 100 Pinny (80.5 Greek)
Tiago 20.5 Greek
Zanjero 30 Bodog, Pinny

The implied takeout using these odds is less than 1%. Tiny.

The action on Curlin at Pinnacle (now 5-2) continues to drive up Pinnacle's line on most of the rest of the field. Pinnacle now has the highest odds on 12 of the 21 horses in the list. World Sports Exchange is next with 5. TheGreek has 3. Bodog has just Zanzero, where it is offering the same 30-1 as Pinnacle.

--Dunbar

[MarkyD]

I can't believe that Great Hunter is now at 35-1. I got him at 24-1 and thought it was a steal. Besides his BlueGrass finish this guy has always fought with the big dogs in his races. I mean 35-1 seems so high, he should be around 15-1 / 20-1 Max.

People on Pinni keep pounding Curlin and CQ. Curlin was +210 yesterday afernoon. Do people no realize just bet him on derby day and you will probably get 9-2 odds on him.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by MarkyD

I can't believe that Great Hunter is now at 35-1. I got him at 24-1 and thought it was a steal. Besides his BlueGrass finish this guy has always fought with the big dogs in his races. I mean 35-1 seems so high, he should be around 15-1 / 20-1 Max.

People on Pinni keep pounding Curlin and CQ. Curlin was +210 yesterday afernoon. Do people no realize just bet him on derby day and you will probably get 9-2 odds on him.

Keep in mind that no one is betting Curlin at +210. But someone(s) probably did make a big bet at 3-1, which then knocked the Pinnacle price down to +210. Now, as the other horses are getting some action, Curlin has risen to +250. I'll be surprised if Curlin's odds don't rise back over 3-1 at Pinnacle.

Even making a big bet on Curlin at 3-1 is hard to understand when TheGreek has been offereing +445 to +465 all along. I would have expected anyone who might make a big bet at Pinnacle would be aware of TheGreek.

As for Great Hunter at 35-1, I can imagine how annoying that must be for you!

--Dunbar

[ateamstupid]

Looks like those wanting 6/1 on Street Sense on Derby day might be out of luck. Everyone seems to be on the SS train.

[tiznowthegreat]

Great Hunter at 35-1 is absolutely shocking to me.

[Danzig]

slew's tizzy will skip the derby, heading to the preakness next.

[Dunbar]

4/27 update

Just 4 changes from yesterday:

Pinnacle's 35-1 on Great Hunter and Dominican are gone. Both are now about 26-1.
Circular Quay down from 11-1 to 10-1 at World; up to 10.15-1 at TheGreek
Tiago up from 20.50-1 to 22.50-1 at TheGreek.

Here is the updated list.

AnyGivSat'day 16.4 Pinny (15 Bodog)
Chelokee 30 Pinny (25.5 Greek)
CircularQuay 10.15 Greek
Cobalt Blue 100 Pinny (52.5 Greek)
Cowtown Cat 30 Pinny (22.5 Greek)
Curlin 4.65 Greek
Dominican 26.71 Pinny (22.5 Greek)
Great Hunter 26.62 Pinny (20 Bodog)
Hard Spun 17.22 Pinny (15.25 Greek)
Liquidity 50 World
Nobiz Shobiz 9 World
ReportDuty 125 Pinny (100 Bodog)
Sam P 60 Pinny (45 Bodog)
Scat Daddy 9 World
Stormello 45.5 Greek
Storm in May 125 Pinny (100 Bodog)
Street Sense 5.4 Pinny (5.25 Greek)
Teuflesberg 100 Pinny (80.5 Greek)
Tiago 22.5 Greek
Zanjero 30 Bodog, Pinny

The implied takeout using these odds is 2.5%.

--Dunbar

fyi, here's a note from sportsbookreview.com:

04.21.2007 (02:53 PM CST)

Bodog (SBR rating A+) check processing time extended to three weeks in some cases and as much as ten days for person to person transfers. Management tells SBR it expects processing time to be shortened as transfer volume decreases in baseball season and more processing options are added.

Not a good sign.

[Dunbar]

4/28 update

TheGreek added lines on Bwana Bull and Sedgefield. I'm adding them to the list and deleting Chelokee.

Otherwise, no changes! Highest odds from yesterday are still there today.

Here is the updated list.

AnyGivSat'day 16.4 Pinny (15 Bodog)
Bwana Bull 50 Greek
CircularQuay 10.15 Greek
Cobalt Blue 100 Pinny (52.5 Greek)
Cowtown Cat 30 Pinny (22.5 Greek)
Curlin 4.65 Greek
Dominican 26.71 Pinny (22.5 Greek)
Great Hunter 26.62 Pinny (20 Bodog)
Hard Spun 17.22 Pinny (15.25 Greek)
Liquidity 50 World
Nobiz Shobiz 9 World
ReportDuty 125 Pinny (100 Bodog)
Sam P 60 Pinny (45 Bodog)
Scat Daddy 9 World
Sedgefield 60 Greek
Stormello 45.5 Greek
Storm in May 125 Pinny (100 Bodog)
Street Sense 5.4 Pinny (5.25 Greek)
Teuflesberg 100 Pinny (80.5 Greek)
Tiago 22.5 Greek
Zanjero 30 Bodog, Pinny

The implied takeout using these odds is 4.5%.

--Dunbar

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Dunbar -
if you can...after the post position draw, can you give your morning line for the "Run for the Roses"?
You're much better with the math than me.
Thanks...

--- "HHH"

this is very interesting stuff.

thanks for the postings.

Hockey dont worry to much about the 100%. You would be hard pressed to find any M/L that adds to 100%. They are very often over 120%. I think very few people actually take the time to make the calculations with the exception of a small fraction of the betting public.

Oh yes, it you do see 9/2 just divide the two into the nine (and its 4.5/1) and do the same as Dunbar stated. Sorry if I stated the obvious.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Dunbar -
if you can...after the post position draw, can you give your morning line for the "Run for the Roses"?
You're much better with the math than me.
Thanks...

--- "HHH"

HHH, if you are looking for a guide to how the betting will go on Derby Day, then I think the list of futures is a reasonable estimate of the bettors' sentiments. The numbers seem to have stabilized the past 2 days.

A "morning line" should probably reflect the odds you get with a 16% takeout. The odds in the futures list are only reflecting a 4.5% takeout, so a few of the odds will go off at less than what's showing. I'm guessing Curlin will go off at around 7-2, and Street Sense will go off around 9-2. That would get the apparent takeout up to 11%. Your guess is as good as mine where the remaining 5% difference will come from. (and I could be way off wrt Curlin and Street Sense, for that matter.)

I can post my own line, but I am not brimming with confidence this year! The combination of horses running fewer preps and running some of those fewer preps on synthetic tracks has introduced even more uncertainty than usual. For me, at least.

--Dunbar

[SCUDSBROTHER]

I like Street Sense-Tiago,but the best bets on the list are the O'NEIL HORSES.They have all disappointed in their last start,and they gunna be doped up with every secretive concoction this barn can find.

[Dunbar]

4/29 update

Bodog has taken down its line, but didn't have any solo "best" anyway.

Great Hunter down from 26.62-1 to 21.25-1 at Pinny.
World adds Bwana Bull at 60-1.
World drops Liquidity from 50-1 to 40-1.

I've dropped Reporting For Duty from the list.

Here is the updated list.

AnyGivSat'day 16.4 Pinny (14.15 Greek)
Bwana Bull 60 World
CircularQuay 10.15 Greek
Cobalt Blue 100 Pinny (52.5 Greek)
Cowtown Cat 30 Pinny (22.5 Greek)
Curlin 4.65 Greek
Dominican 26.71 Pinny (22.5 Greek)
Great Hunter 21.25 Pinny (18.15 Greek)
Hard Spun 17.22 Pinny (15.25 Greek)
Liquidity 40 World
Nobiz Shobiz 9 World
Sam P 60 Pinny (40.5 Greek)
Scat Daddy 9 World
Sedgefield 60 Greek
Stormello 45.5 Greek
Storm in May 125 Pinny (not listed at Greek or World)
Street Sense 5.4 Pinny (5.25 Greek)
Teuflesberg 100 Pinny (80.5 Greek)
Tiago 20.5 Greek
Zanjero 30 Pinny (25.5 Greek)

The implied takeout using these odds is 5%

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

2nd 4/29 update

I just noticed that 5Dimes now has futures up for the Derby. They are the highest I could find on these 4 Derby horses:

Scat Daddy, 10-1
Hard Spun, 20-1
Street Sense, 6-1
Tiago, 22-1

Here is the updated list. (using "FD" for 5Dimes)

AnyGivSat'day 16.4 Pinny (16 FD)
Bwana Bull 60 World
CircularQuay 10.15 Greek
Cobalt Blue 100 Pinny (60 FD)
Cowtown Cat 30 Pinny (24 FD)
Curlin 4.65 Greek
Dominican 26.71 Pinny (23 FD)
Great Hunter 21.25 Pinny (20 FD)
Hard Spun 20 FD
Liquidity 40 World, FD
Nobiz Shobiz 9 World, FD
Sam P 60 Pinny (45 FD)
Scat Daddy 10 FD
Sedgefield 60 Greek
Stormello 45.5 Greek
Storm in May 125 Pinny (not listed at Greek, FD or World)
Street Sense 6 FD
Teuflesberg 100 Pinny (80.5 Greek)
Tiago 20 FD
Zanjero 30 5D, Pinny

The implied takeout using these odds is 1.7%

--Dunbar

FD = 5Dimes
World = World Sports Exchange
Greek = TheGreek
Pinny = Pinnacle

[Dunbar]

4/30 update

Of yesterday's 4 solo highest at 5Dimes, only the 10-1 on Scat Daddy is gone.
Bodog has a futures line up again, now matching 5Dimes' 6-1 on Street Sense and Pinny's 60-1 on SamP
No changes in odds at Pinny, TheGreek, or World.

Pinny has solo highest odds on 7 horses. Next is TheGreek with 4 horses, 5Dimes and World with 2 horses each, and Bodog with none. The remaining 5 horses' highest odds are shared by more than one sportsbook.

Here is the updated list. (using "FD" for 5Dimes)

AnyGivSat'day 16.4 Pinny (16 FD)
Bwana Bull 60 World
CircularQuay 10.15 Greek
Cobalt Blue 100 Pinny (60 FD)
Cowtown Cat 30 Pinny (24 FD)
Curlin 4.65 Greek
Dominican 26.71 Pinny (23 FD)
Great Hunter 21.25 Pinny (20 FD, Bodog)
Hard Spun 20 FD
Liquidity 40 World, FD
Nobiz Shobiz 9 World, FD
Sam P 60 Pinny, Bodog
Scat Daddy 9 World
Sedgefield 60 Greek
Stormello 45.5 Greek
Storm in May 125 Pinny (80 Bodog)
Street Sense 6 FD, Bodog
Teuflesberg 100 Pinny (80.5 Greek)
Tiago 22 FD
Zanjero 30 FD, Bodog, Pinny

The implied takeout using these odds is 2.6%

--Dunbar

FD = 5Dimes
World = World Sports Exchange
Greek = TheGreek
Pinny = Pinnacle

[Dunbar]

5/1 update

A sudden burst of activity at Pinnacle...

AGS up from 16.4-1 to 17-1 at Pinny
Bwana Bull and Sedgefield listed at 125-1 at Pinny
Xchanger listed at 80-1 at Pinny
Dominican up from 26.71-1 to 28.28-1 at Pinny
Great Hunter up from 21.25-1 to 22.25-1 at Pinny
NoBiz down from 9-1 to 8.25-1 at 5Dimes, still 9-1 at World
SamP down from 60-1 to 23.44-1 at Pinny; still 60-1 at Bodog
Scat Daddy down from 9-1 to 7.5-1 at 5Dimes; still 9-1 at World
Street Sense down from 6-1 to 5.35-1 at 5Dimes; still 6-1 at Bodog
Tiago down from 22-1 to 20-1 at 5Dimes

Here is the updated list:

AnyGivSat'day 17.01 Pinny (16 FD)
Bwana Bull 125 Pinny 60 World, FD
CircularQuay 10.15 Greek
Cobalt Blue 100 Pinny (60 FD)
Cowtown Cat 30 Pinny (23 FD)
Curlin 4.65 Greek
Dominican 28.28 Pinny (23 FD)
Great Hunter 22.25 Pinny (20 FD, Bodog)
Hard Spun 20 FD
Liquidity 40 World, FD
Nobiz Shobiz 9 World
Sam P 60 Bodog
Scat Daddy 9 World
Sedgefield 125 Pinny (60 Greek)
Stormello 45.5 Greek
Storm in May 125 Pinny (80 Bodog)
Street Sense 6 Bodog
Teuflesberg 100 Pinny (80.5 Greek)
Tiago 20 FD
Zanjero 30 FD, Bodog

The implied takeout using these odds is 0.8%! Even if you add in Xchanger at 80-1 and use 21 horses, the total implied takeout is around 2%.

--Dunbar

FD = 5Dimes
World = World Sports Exchange
Greek = TheGreek
Pinny = Pinnacle

[Dunbar]

5/2 update

TheGreek and World Sports Exch have their future lines down. I'll just post a "best" list today, without all the changes:

Here is the updated list:

AnyGivSat'day 18.81 Pinny
Bwana Bull 100 FD
CircularQuay 8.5 FD
Cowtown Cat 30 Pinny
Curlin 4.1 FD
Dominican 25 FD
Great Hunter 24.97 Pinny
Hard Spun 19.65 Pinny
Liquidity 33 FD
Nobiz Shobiz 8.79 Pinny
Sam P 60 Bodog
Scat Daddy 7.77 Pinny
Sedgefield 40 Pinny
Stormello 40 FD
Storm in May 80 Bodog
Street Sense 6 Bodog
Teuflesberg 85 FD
Tiago 16.47 Pinny
Zanjero 30 Bodog

If you assume Imawild can be gotten for 50-1 on DerbyDay, then the implied takeout using these odds is 9.6%.

--Dunbar

FD = 5Dimes
World = World Sports Exchange
Greek = TheGreek
Pinny = Pinnacle

Edit: corrected the takeout from 8% to 9.6%

[Dunbar]

5/3 update

Curlin is now over 5-1 at Pinnacle. Curlin was 5-2 at Pinnacle a few days ago.

World and 5Dimes still don't have odds up. Even without them, the combined list of highest available has just a 3.5% takeout.

Here is the updated list of highest future odds:

Sedgefield 80 Greek
Curlin 5.03 Pinny
Zanjero 25 Bodog,Pinny
StormInMay 72.5 Greek
ImaWildGuy 75 Bodog
CowtownCat 30 Pinny
StreetSense 5.6 Pinny
HardSpun 15.4 Pinny
Liquidity 40 Pinny
Teuflesberg 80 Pinny
Bwana Bull 70 Bodog
Nobiz 9.5 Pinny
SamP 40 Pinny
ScatDaddy 9 Bodog
Tiago 22.8 Pinny
CircQuay 10.15 Greek
Stormello 42.5 Greek
AGS 19.04 Pinny
Dominican 25.5 Greek,Pinny
Great Hunter 27 Pinny

The implied takeout using these odds is just 3.5%.

--Dunbar

Greek = TheGreek
Pinny = Pinnacle

[Dunbar]

5/4 (and possibly final) update

DrugS's endorsement of AGS knocked the Pinnacle odds from 19-1 to 14-1 ;>) (still at 16-1 at TheGreek)
Someone also snapped up Sedgefield at 80-1 at TheGreek, knocking it down to 60-1 there. (still at 70-1 at bodog)
Curlin, Street Sense and Circ Quay were bet down from the odds offered yesterday. (others, too, but those jumped out at me.)

Here is the updated list of highest future odds:

Sedgefield 70 Bodog
Curlin 4.85 Greek
Zanjero 25 Bodog
StormInMay 72.5 Greek
ImaWildGuy 75 Bodog
CowtownCat 28.5 Greek
StreetSense 5.39 Pinny
HardSpun 15.25 Greek
Liquidity 46.98 Pinny
Teuflesberg 80 Pinny
Bwana Bull 70 Bodog
Nobiz 8.9 Pinny
SamP 40 Pinny
ScatDaddy 8.85 Greek
Tiago 18.15 Greek
CircQuay 9 Bodog
Stormello 40 Bodog
AGS 16.15 Greek
Dominican 25.5 Greek,Pinny
Great Hunter 27 Pinny

The implied takeout using these odds is 7.8%.

--Dunbar

Greek = TheGreek
Pinny = Pinnacle