Betting The Preakness

[philcski]

Originally Posted by justindew

I'm not playing Hard Spun or Curlin for a couple of reasons.

1) I think Street Sense will win.
2) An exacta with SS over HS and Curlin won't pay anything.
3) Even though my devotion to historical trends cost me in the Derby, I'm sticking with what I have learned over the years in the Preakness. One of the things I have learned is that horses who run big in defeat in the Derby seem to regress in the Preakness. Or at the very least, the don't run as well as the betting public expects. The horse who best fits this in this spot is Hard Spun.
4) Like I said, I think Curlin needs a rest. He's done a lot this spring.

Maybe a better way of saying "run big in defeat in the Derby" would be to say "outrun their odds in the Derby."

2) SS over HS or Curlin will pay around $12-18. Certainly better than nothing. In fact, if SS is 6/5 (which I agree is the likely price) and you simply bet exactas to HS and Curlin at the $15 willpay, you're getting 15/4 on your money instead. I don't need to tell you that's better than 6/5.
3) Over the years? What, the last 4? I just gave you two examples debunking said "trend" from the last decade!

All I'm saying is you're costing yourself value if your true opinion is what you stated and you stick to just a win bet.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

No... Rock Hard Ten was second.

I beat you to it... you just wanted to say Rock Hard Ten

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Justin, why do you think that 4 starts is a lot? Was this colt unsound before they started him or something?

Retire him. He's done enough.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by philcski

2) SS over HS or Curlin will pay around $12-18. Certainly better than nothing. In fact, if SS is 6/5 (which I agree is the likely price) and you simply bet exactas to HS and Curlin at the $15 willpay, you're getting 11/2 on your money instead. I don't need to tell you that's better than 6/5.
3) Over the years? What, the last 4? I just gave you two examples debunking said "trend" from the last decade!

All I'm saying is you're costing yourself value if your true opinion is what you stated and you stick to just a win bet.

Isn't that 15/4? 3.75/1, which is better than 6/5 but far less than 11/2.
I don't see 11/2.

[NTamm1215]

I think it's hilarious that before the Derby no one liked Curlin because he didn't have enough starts, now everyone's off of him, it seems, because they say he needs a break.

Just an observation...I didn't use him at all in the Derby and probably will use him minimally on Saturday.

NT

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Isn't that 15/4? 3.75/1, which is better than 6/5 but far less than 11/2.
I don't see 11/2.

Yes. I have no idea where I came up with 11/2. 15/4 is correct and amended...

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by philcski

I beat you to it... you just wanted to say Rock Hard Ten

Why of course... every gal's dream.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I think it's hilarious that before the Derby no one liked Curlin because he didn't have enough starts, now everyone's off of him, it seems, because they say he needs a break.

Just an observation...I didn't use him at all in the Derby and probably will use him minimally on Saturday.

NT

I don't think those two opinions are mutually exclusive at all. They all play into that "Too much too soon" angle.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by justindew

I don't think those two opinions are mutually exclusive at all. They all play into that "Too much too soon" angle.

I agree...I suppose I should expand on what I said by adding that if a person felt like Curlin needed more experience heading into the Derby and was unlikely to win because of a lack of seasoning, hasn't that been rectified in a way.

Curlin ran a much different race in the Derby than he ever has before, he faced more adversity and was taken completely out of his game. In a sense he reminds me of a more talented Brother Derek, a handy winner over average fields who got a rough, wide trip in the Derby before closing late. However, I think Curlin is going to be the 3rd choice and I'm not really convinced Hard Spun is any better than him.

As far as talk of going 1 or 2 deep in the multi-race exotics, Curlin will be the first horse, if there are any at all, I use to help Street Sense.

NT

[justindew]

Originally Posted by philcski

3) Over the years? What, the last 4? I just gave you two examples debunking said "trend" from the last decade!

All I'm saying is you're costing yourself value if your true opinion is what you stated and you stick to just a win bet.

Here are examples of horses since 1996, off the top of my head, that did not run to their odds in the Preakness, where their odds were based on their Derby efforts:

Prince of Thieves
Cavonnier (injured in the Preakness)
Victory Gallop (Ran well, but didn't win)
Menifee (Ran well, but didn't win)
Medaglia D' Oro
Peace Rules
Imperialism
Lion Heart
Closing Argument

It does not happen every year, but ALMOST every year, a horse who runs a terrific race in the Derby gets heavily bet in the Preakness, and comes up short. That's all I'm saying. I think Hard Spun will be added to that list this year.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by justindew

Here are examples of horses since 1996, off the top of my head, that did not run to their odds in the Preakness, where their odds were based on their Derby efforts:

Prince of Thieves
Cavonnier (injured in the Preakness)
Victory Gallop (Ran well, but didn't win)
Menifee (Ran well, but didn't win)
Medaglia D' Oro
Peace Rules
Imperialism
Lion Heart
Closing Argument

It does not happen every year, but ALMOST every year, a horse who runs a terrific race in the Derby gets heavily bet in the Preakness, and comes up short. That's all I'm saying. I think Hard Spun will be added to that list this year.

And V-Gallop and Menifee ran 2nd behind the same horse they ran second to in the Derby (I didn't even use '99 in my suggestion of exactas that came out the same way as the Derby.) I highly doubt Hard Spun runs off the board against this mediocre group.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Why of course... every gal's dream.

LMFAO. I feel shortchanged.

[SentToStud]

I see it:

SS 1-1
HS 7/2
Curlin 4/1
----------
CQ 10/1
KOTR 15/1
-----------
MJ 40/1
X 40/1
FFC 40/1
CPW 40/1

I used about 15% hold.

I don't think the Ex's of SS/HS-Curlin pay more than low teens.

SS/CQ pays $25 at most.

Ex's of HS-Curlin/SS are probably $22-$25.

Unless you can get one of the bottom tier runners to crash the Ex, it seems awful hard to make money here in the Exacta unless you have a strong positive opinion on two of the top three and a strong negative opinion on the third of that group. Tri/Supers sem worthwhile to me only with a middle placing on those tickets with one of the bottom tier runners.

I don't trust CQ enough to use him on any narrow Ex ticket. I'll look at the bottom tier horses and work out a potential ticket that way, but I'm not excited about the verticals.

Maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I'm seeing the race.

[Cajungator26]

I'll probably put some money across the board on C P West or something... I did the same thing last year with Hemingway's Key so I didn't totally lose my ass on the Preakness. I had tossed Bernardini (stupid) and played a straight exacta using Barbaro and Sweetnorthernsaint.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

I see it:

SS 1-1
HS 7/2
Curlin 4/1
----------
CQ 10/1
KOTR 15/1
-----------
MJ 40/1
X 40/1
FFC 40/1
CPW 40/1

I used about 15% hold.

I don't think the Ex's of SS/HS-Curlin pay more than low teens.

SS/CQ pays $25 at most.

Ex's of HS-Curlin/SS are probably $22-$25.

Unless you can get one of the bottom tier runners to crash the Ex, it seems awful hard to make money here in the Exacta unless you have a strong positive opinion on two of the top three and a strong negative opinion on the third of that group. Tri/Supers sem worthwhile to me only with a middle placing on those tickets with one of the bottom tier runners.

I don't trust CQ enough to use him on any narrow Ex ticket. I'll look at the bottom tier horses and work out a potential ticket that way, but I'm not excited about the verticals.

Maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I'm seeing the race.

I think you're dead on, except for the bottom horses may be a little shorter than 40-1. TRUE odds are probably close to 40-1, they'll probably go off at closer to 20-1.

[Scurlogue Champ]

I am betting Curlin to win.

I think Street Sense has to go wide and lays down or hangs a bit.


(Now that CQ is in, I'll probably change my mind and bet him for some stupid reason)

But today, my pick is Curlin. By 3+ lengths.

Am tempted to play KotRoxy in some sort of exotic. He's got the speed needed for this race. Stamina a big question; is 15-1 enough to warrant a win bet?? Does the fatman have an opinion?

[justindew]

Originally Posted by philcski

And V-Gallop and Menifee ran 2nd behind the same horse they ran second to in the Derby (I didn't even use '99 in my suggestion of exactas that came out the same way as the Derby.) I highly doubt Hard Spun runs off the board against this mediocre group.

But weren't Victory Gallop and Menifee both favored in the Preakness? (I am too lazy to research this, so I could be wrong.)

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by justindew

But weren't Victory Gallop and Menifee both favored in the Preakness? (I am too lazy to research this, so I could be wrong.)

They were favored over the Derby winner? I'm too lazy to research also.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

They were favored over the Derby winner? I'm too lazy to research also.

Can't you assign it to an intern or assistant?