Lukas living in the past? I dream of Cat Thief, and Spain

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Sort of like I think that Winning Colors would have won the Preakness if Forty Niner wasn't in there. Sometimes, the presence of one horse can alter your strategy enough to where u totally compromise your chances to win the race. Perhaps a better example would be that Forty Niner could have maybe won the race if Winning Colors wasn't in there.

When I watched the Arkansas Derby, I got a sense that the rider of FFC was riding as if Curlin was the horse to beat. Curlin made his move and so FFC had to move in order to keep within striking distance. I felt the move was a little early for him and as a result, he flattened out in the lane and was passed by some horses and finished fourth. Maybe if Curlin was not in the race, the rider of FFC could have waited a bit longer before making his move and the result could have been different. I'm not saying that's the way it would have gone but that's the feeling I had watching the race.

Okay, but Curlin IS in this race, and Curlin was no match in the KY Derby for the top two. It was Storminmay and Deadly Dealer who finished 2nd and 3rd in the Ark Derby, ahead of FCC. Check out the derby charts to see what happened to Storm In May when he tried to go a distance that is not good for him.
FCC has got no solution to get him on the board in the Preakness. At the end of the race he will be hopelessly out of it.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I think it's kind of funny that King Glorious says in one post that Flying First Class has a 50 percent shot of getting in the tri, then in the next post ranks him fifth among the Preakness contenders. I'm no mathmetician, but I don't think that adds up very well.

How about this then. Let's see if this will help a little. In one scenario, I see it as:

1. Curlin
2. Circular Quay
3. Hard Spun
4. Street Sense
5. FFC

In another, I see it as:

1. Street Sense......he's as good as advertised
2. Hard Spun......puts away the cheap speed and hangs on for second
3. FFC.....charges up like in the Ark Derby but hangs again...still gets third
4. Curlin.......the Derby/Preakness combo was just too much in a short period
5. Circular Quay....closing sprinter that really doesn't want more than 9f

So let's see here. That's two scenarios. FFC is in the tri in one and not in the other. Give me a second to break out my calculator. Let's see now. One out of two. I'm not a math major either so I could be wrong here but 1/2 keeps coming out to 50%. I could do a few more scenarios and come up with more combinations. I come up with FFC in the top three in about half of them. Or maybe 40-45%. Would that be better for u?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Okay, but Curlin IS in this race, and Curlin was no match in the KY Derby for the top two. It was Storminmay and Deadly Dealer who finished 2nd and 3rd in the Ark Derby, ahead of FCC. Check out the derby charts to see what happened to Storm In May when he tried to go a distance that is not good for him.
FCC has got no solution to get him on the board in the Preakness. At the end of the race he will be hopelessly out of it.

And if Curlin runs his race again here, I don't think FFC can beat him. But there is a chance he doesn't run his race. I feel very strongly that this is the wrong place to be running hm. I feel about him like I did about Lion Heart coming back in the Preakness. Not worth it. I do think he can win and he's my pick to win but long term, I don't think it's worth it.

The thing is that even though Storm in May and Deadly Dealer were ahead of him in Arkansas doesn't mean I think they are better horses. Many factors can play into why a race order of finish comes in the way that it does without it meaning that the order determines the actual rank of the horses. Again, I personally thought that FFC was the second best horse in the race in Arkansas. What Storm in May did in the Derby has nothing to do with the Preakness and FFC. At least not that I see.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

And if Curlin runs his race again here, I don't think FFC can beat him. But there is a chance he doesn't run his race. I feel very strongly that this is the wrong place to be running hm. I feel about him like I did about Lion Heart coming back in the Preakness. Not worth it. I do think he can win and he's my pick to win but long term, I don't think it's worth it.

The thing is that even though Storm in May and Deadly Dealer were ahead of him in Arkansas doesn't mean I think they are better horses. Many factors can play into why a race order of finish comes in the way that it does without it meaning that the order determines the actual rank of the horses. Again, I personally thought that FFC was the second best horse in the race in Arkansas. What Storm in May did in the Derby has nothing to do with the Preakness and FFC. At least not that I see.

FCC has run two routes this year, both times he finished up the track against Curlin and relatively weak fields. In his two routes he has faced 18 horses and managed to beat a grand total of 4 horses. That you are able to run multiple scenarios and find him hitting the tri fifty percent of the time in this race is simply amazing to me. To me he is the most unlikely horse in the field to be in the tri.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

FCC has run two routes this year, both times he finished up the track against Curlin and relatively weak fields. In his two routes he has faced 18 horses and managed to beat a grand total of 4 horses. That you are able to run multiple scenarios and find him hitting the tri fifty percent of the time in this race is simply amazing to me. To me he is the most unlikely horse in the field to be in the tri.

It seems 20-1 also thinks so

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

And if Curlin runs his race again here, I don't think FFC can beat him. But there is a chance he doesn't run his race. I feel very strongly that this is the wrong place to be running hm. I feel about him like I did about Lion Heart coming back in the Preakness. Not worth it. I do think he can win and he's my pick to win but long term, I don't think it's worth it.

The thing is that even though Storm in May and Deadly Dealer were ahead of him in Arkansas doesn't mean I think they are better horses. Many factors can play into why a race order of finish comes in the way that it does without it meaning that the order determines the actual rank of the horses. Again, I personally thought that FFC was the second best horse in the race in Arkansas. What Storm in May did in the Derby has nothing to do with the Preakness and FFC. At least not that I see.

Really? I think it has a lot more to do with it than your references to Winning Colors and Lion Heart. What does that have to do with FCC or Curlin? FCC was beaten a ton by Curlin, TWICE, RECENTLY. Even an off effort or a bounce by Curlin wouldn't put FCC in spitting distance of Curlin at the end. And that leaves the not so small matter of the rest of the field for FCC to deal with.

[MisterB]

If the race stopped at 7-1/2, he may be a contender

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by MisterB

If the race stopped at 7-1/2, he may be a contender

He is going to drop anchor as they go into the far turn and end up galloping past the wire last.

[King Glorious]

Admittedly, I'm a Lukas fan and believe in him so I'll give FFC more of a chance simply because of Lukas. But I honestly feel that I've seen enough improvement in his last two races to feel he's going in the right direction. The Rebel was horrible. I think that a horse going in the right direction, some other horses coming off of their toughest races ever (and doing so in only two weeks), and the master behind the controls.......could equal a much better effort than anyone is anticipating. The question is whether even on his best day, he could be as good as those others? I think that if Curlin, CQ, Hard Spun and SS all run their best, FFC is looking at fifth at best. But if any of them stumble a bit and regress, he could sneak into the picture.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

KG,

If you draw a line through the form of his two lifetime sprint races....you're basically looking at the form of a 200/1 shot.

Being that he's bred to sprint top and bottom....I think his pedigree also confirms him as a sprinter.

You have too much faith in Lukas I think---as, he just wants to dance every dance. This horse would be a lot better off if he'd have just been pointed to sprint races---and trained to be a sprinter.

[King Glorious]

If that were the case, Lukas could have entered him in the Derby. There's no bigger dance than that one.

I don't know anything about pedigree. It's meaningless stuff to me.

One thing that I know about Lukas is that he isn't afraid to take chances in races. He isn't afraid to sacrifice a race either if he thinks it will help him get his horse ready for the bigger test.

I understand that more than likely, I'm wrong and u guys are right. But none of his competitors look to me like Smarty Jones or Ghostzapper or Candy Ride so it wouldn't take much of a jump for FFC to get to their level. It's not like he's got to get to the 115 Beyer level to compete with them. And they have questions to answer too. We'll see on Saturday.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

If that were the case, Lukas could have entered him in the Derby. There's no bigger dance than that one.
I don't know anything about pedigree. It's meaningless stuff to me.

One thing that I know about Lukas is that he isn't afraid to take chances in races. He isn't afraid to sacrifice a race either if he thinks it will help him get his horse ready for the bigger test.

I understand that more than likely, I'm wrong and u guys are right. But none of his competitors look to me like Smarty Jones or Ghostzapper or Candy Ride so it wouldn't take much of a jump for FFC to get to their level. It's not like he's got to get to the 115 Beyer level to compete with them. And they have questions to answer too. We'll see on Saturday.

Didn't have the earnings, or Lukas probably would have.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

If that were the case, Lukas could have entered him in the Derby. There's no bigger dance than that one.

I don't know anything about pedigree. It's meaningless stuff to me.

Like phil pointed out, it's a given that had FCC had enough earnings, Lukas would have run him in the derby.

About your pedigree comment, I am somewhat in the same boat as you. I do know a little about it and pay some attention to the breeding.
But my comments on FCC were not based on breeding, they were based solely on his running lines and pace and speed figures. From that I can see that he is not likely to be competitive at 1 3/16 against anyone, let alone GR1types.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

...and the master behind the controls...

At one time, maybe. Now he is a below 10% winning trainer with outstanding stock that just throws piles of unfit and outclassed horses into major stakes hoping that everyone else falls apart and his horses run out of their minds on that day.

[packerbacker7964]

I bet you that Xchanger beats him head to head.

[timmgirvan]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He paid around $35....not $60.

I didn't think you were that old...so it was 17-1?

[slotdirt]

I actually think Xchanger may be the best of the "new" shooters, plus it's not like Ramon is completely unfamiliar with the track. That is, if you can forgive the two absolutely miserable efforts at Oaklawn earlier this spring.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I actually think Xchanger may be the best of the "new" shooters, plus it's not like Ramon is completely unfamiliar with the track. That is, if you can forgive the two absolutely miserable efforts at Oaklawn earlier this spring.

Agreed, Slot.

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

As stupid as this is, I'm putting $2 across on him because he's coming out of the 6 hole and because there's a line in Fergie's song, Glamorous, about 'flying first class.'

Just a strange vibe.

have to say, i think of this horse every time i hear Fergie's song (which is alot!) can't say i like him in this spot though..