Preakness Toss

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I must be easier to please, because I can't toss any of them. Give me 300-1, and I'd be all over Mint Slewlep. Give me 3-1, and I'm all over Street Sense. Not likely to get either of those, I'll admit. But maybe I can get the 9-1 that I would need to bet Circular Quay, or the 12-1 that would get me interested in King of the Roxy. If the track comes up sloppy, maybe I'll even get the 4-1 I'd need to love Hard Spun.

I agree with Beyer. Street Sense's Derby was very nice, but it wasn't as impressive as it (casually) looked. He certainly has a good chance to win the Preakness, but not the even money chance he will probably go off at. It's a good betting opportunity, IMO.

--Dunbar

I agree with everything you say here. I couldn't toss many (except for the ridiculous Lukas colt) either....which is why I eventually tossed them all.
I think trying to beat Street Sense here makes sense because - although he is certainly the most likely winner - he will probably be seriously overbet. I can't blame anyone that thinks they have found the value-horse in beating Street Sense (because one is certainly out there somewhere) but I have absolutely no idea who that is.

[JDank34]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I agree with everything you say here. I couldn't toss many (except for the ridiculous Lukas colt) either....which is why I eventually tossed them all.
I think trying to beat Street Sense here makes sense because - although he is certainly the most likely winner - he will probably be seriously overbet. I can't blame anyone that thinks they have found the value-horse in beating Street Sense (because one is certainly out there somewhere) but I have absolutely no idea who that is.

better be cautious with that one..........

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by JDank34

better be cautious with that one..........

His performances in the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby left me with the definite impression that this horse wants no part of 8.5 or 9 furlongs. I see no reason why he would like even MORE distance against far tougher competition.
In his route races he has been completely overmatched against horses like Deadly Dealer and Officer Rocket. That leaves me more than skeptical about his chances against Street Sense and Hard Spun.
Add to that a likely unfavorable pace scenario and the fact that his trainer has a well-deserved reputation for recently (we don't need a lecture about all of his past success) running any four-legged creature he is associated with in TC races, and he is a COMPLETE toss in my opinion.

[JDank34]

Originally Posted by miraja2

His performances in the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby left me with the definite impression that this horse wants no part of 8.5 or 9 furlongs.I see no reason why he would like even MORE distance against far tougher competition.
In his route races he has been completely overmatched against horses like Deadly Dealer and Officer Rocket. That leaves me more than skeptical about his chances against Street Sense and Hard Spun.
Add to that a likely unfavorable pace scenario and the fact that his trainer has a well-deserved reputation for recently (we don't need a lecture about all of his past success) running any four-legged creature he is associated with in TC races, and he is a COMPLETE toss in my opinion.

I can see your point, but the man has won 13 TC races! I am not a believer the FFC wanted to be taken back like he was in Arkansas and Guidry fits him much better than TThompson. He will lead them a long, long, long way tomorrow and I think he holds on for a part (maybe even second).

[miraja2]

If he runs well it will certainly be a victory for those that scoff at pedigree. FFC's sire and broodmare sire COMBINED for one lifetime win.
I just don't like the chances of any horse that has already demonstrated extremely limited two-turn ability and whose greatest victory came over UD Ghetto. Oh and by the way, FFC was actually getting six lbs from the great UD that day. Tomorrow he will be carrying the same weight as SS, HS, CQ, and Curlin. I will be absolutely SHOCKED if he hits the board.

[JDank34]

Originally Posted by miraja2

If he runs well it will certainly be a victory for those that scoff at pedigree. FFC's sire and broodmare sire COMBINED for one lifetime win.
I just don't like the chances of any horse that has already demonstrated extremely limited two-turn ability and whose greatest victory came over UD Ghetto. Oh and by the way, FFC was actually getting six lbs from the great UD that day. Tomorrow he will be carrying the same weight as SS, HS, CQ, and Curlin. I will be absolutely SHOCKED if he hits the board.

I think it is impossible to look at the Derby Trial at 7.5 furlongs and that pace and correspond it to loping along in front at PIM and possibly setting 23 and 46 fractions and if he does that he will go a long way in the lead....

My Preakness picks are:

Street Sense
Flying First Class
Hard Spun
CP West

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by JDank34

I think it is impossible to look at the Derby Trial at 7.5 furlongs and that pace and correspond it to loping along in front at PIM and possibly setting 23 and 46 fractions and if he does that he will go a long way in the lead....

My Preakness picks are:

Street Sense
Flying First Class
Hard Spun
CP West

Many, many far superior animals to Flying First Class have "loped" along in 23 and 46 fractions at Pimlico and finished 10th. I challenge you to find me the last time a Preakness starter went 23 and 46 and won the race off the lead.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by JDank34

I think it is impossible to look at the Derby Trial at 7.5 furlongs and that pace and correspond it to loping along in front at PIM and possibly setting 23 and 46 fractions and if he does that he will go a long way in the lead....

I agree! You can't compare what he did in that race with his chances in this one!
I don't know if I would consider :46 for a half "loping along" in a 9.5f race. The pace should be strong up front, and he seems far more likely than Hard Spun to me to fall apart. You have him finishing in front of Hard Spun? I don't see how you come up with that one.
Oh well, it seems like you are determined to play him so I will stop trying to talk you out of it. Like I said earlier in the thread, I am not playing the race at all, so I truly wish you the best of luck with FFC. It should pay EXTREMELY well if you hit it.

[slotdirt]

War Emblem wasn't necessarily on the lead until 6f in 2002, and the pace that year was around 46. Other recent Preakness paces and the pacesetters. Some pretty good animals here and none of them wired the field.

2006 Like Now 46.69
2005 High Limit 23-46
2004 Lion Heart 23.65-47.32
2003 Peace Rules 23.37-47.17


Needless to say, the scenario JDank is hoping will play out is very, very unlikely. Very.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

War Emblem wasn't necessarily on the lead until 6f in 2002, and the pace that year was around 46. Other recent Preakness paces and the pacesetters. Some pretty good animals here and none of them wired the field.

2006 Like Now 46.69
2005 High Limit 23-46
2004 Lion Heart 23.65-47.32
2003 Peace Rules 23.37-47.17


Needless to say, the scenario JDank is hoping will play out is very, very unlikely. Very.

And those four horses (well, at least three of them) are about ten times more talented in two-turn races than FFC.

[slotdirt]

Even Like Now was at least a graded winner coming into the race. What has Flying First Class done besides hammer a sprint race and win the stinking Derby Trial? I think Going Wild had a better shot in the Preakness than Flying First Class does, and that's not saying much.

[JDank34]

I just have an opinion on who will run behind SS to finish the exacta and fill in the tri and super. You guys can look at prior preakness races and certainly stand against FFC. I feel he is rounding back into form and while i TOTALLY agree he is a better 7f horse I also have seen him train and I feel Guidry will have him in front a long time and he may not quit as soon as you all think. You want your hard earned dollars riding on D Wayne off the plane and The Guid or Cowboy Jones and Pino?

[JDank34]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

War Emblem wasn't necessarily on the lead until 6f in 2002, and the pace that year was around 46. Other recent Preakness paces and the pacesetters. Some pretty good animals here and none of them wired the field.

2006 Like Now 46.69
2005 High Limit 23-46
2004 Lion Heart 23.65-47.32
2003 Peace Rules 23.37-47.17


Needless to say, the scenario JDank is hoping will play out is very, very unlikely. Very.

NEVER said he would wire the field....I said he will hang on for 2,3,4 behind SS. I will be playing him second for a value play exacta.

[slotdirt]

Based on 2007 stats? D. Wayne is 14-44 W-WPS percentage, Larry Jones is 17-56. Not a huge difference, but I guarantee you Jones is doing more with less than Lukas.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by JDank34

I just have an opinion on who will run behind SS to finish the exacta and fill in the tri and super. You guys can look at prior preakness races and certainly stand against FFC. I feel he is rounding back into form and while i TOTALLY agree he is a better 7f horse I also have seen him train and I feel Guidry will have him in front a long time and he may not quit as soon as you all think. You want your hard earned dollars riding on D Wayne off the plane and The Guid or Cowboy Jones and Pino?

I just wish that people would stop laughing at the guy for being southern...

With that said, my hard earned dollars will be riding on whatever horse I feel has the best shot to win or hit the board, and Flying First Class isn't near as nice of a horse as Hard Spun, so I'll take my chances with Hard Spun.

[cmorioles]

Skipping the obvious chanceless horses, I'm tossing Curlin. He will be the most overbet horse in the race in my opinion.

[tycharles01]

The one thing I don't understand about the public is the affection for Street Sense. He is a nice horse but its not like he destroyed the Derby field



If Stormello would have stayed on the line he was running we would be talking about Street Sense and his 7th or 8th place finish.

Grant the horse his due but doubt he gets that same trip again.

[cmorioles]

If you think he was finishing 7th or 8th without a perfect trip, I'd watch the race again. It isn't like he squeezed through some narrow opening.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by tycharles01

The one thing I don't understand about the public is the affection for Street Sense.

I think you also have to remember that the public really likes closers. Seeing a horse go from 19th to 1st is more exciting for most people than seeing a horse wire the field.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by tycharles01

The one thing I don't understand about the public is the affection for Street Sense. He is a nice horse but its not like he destroyed the Derby field



If Stormello would have stayed on the line he was running we would be talking about Street Sense and his 7th or 8th place finish.

Grant the horse his due but doubt he gets that same trip again.

I don't see a great deal of public affection for Street Sense that I would call excessive or overly hyped. He has had smashing wins in the two biggest races for young horses. Why would he not be the horse getting the attention and hype? You say he didn't destroy the derby field, well I'm not sure what the definition for destroyed is but by my call that was a decisive win. Hard Spun was within a few lengths and was the only one with anything close to Street Sense's performance, everyone else was an also ran.

he will go off as a big favorite in the Preakness, and rightfully so.
Don't be surprised when he get's his trip again, because it may be a case of him making his trip more than him getting his trip, if that makes sense.
Hard Spun also got a good trip in the derby, why? because he is fast and can make a good trip for himself.