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#21
05-21-2007, 11:34 PM
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HIGHLY considering singling Casual Thunder in the first leg. As much as I want to get sucked into Taylor's Route and Our Partner, I just can't do it. 5 is a rat, 1 is coming back after 11 days and shipping.....8 is a little scary but the board will tell me everything I need to know about the 6, Casual Thunder is 8/5 or 7/5 unload because of 2nd time Canani....
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#22
05-22-2007, 12:29 AM
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3: 2,6,7,8
4: 3,5,6,9,10,11 5: 1,4,6,7,8 6: 1,4,5,8,9,10 7: 1,3,4,6 8: 2,3,5,9 Here is what I feel are the only horses that can actually win their respective races. Now before some of your angry internet people gets nuts, in NO WAY am I playing the above ticket. I plan on spending between $900 and $1400 on one ticket. Might not be the right way but whatever. The above is more for a chart, I think that you could toss any horses not mentioned. The only horse I could potentially single is Robbo's Courage in the 5th but given Nakatini's recent struggles and this horse never trying the turf before, the balls have to be feeling mighty big at 4pm on Wednesday for that to get punched. As much as I want to single Idiot Proof (and no not because of the name) with the turn back of a 1/2 furlong and it looks like he could go 44/3 and easily win, I worry about this horse getting tired on the cushion and the 1 or 6 cruising by. 1 is also getting 4lbs on equal TG's numbers, which would be good for about 1 length
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#23
05-22-2007, 12:50 AM
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__________________
@BDiDonatoTDN
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#24
05-22-2007, 01:02 AM
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I know, I KNOW.....but, he is the fastest horse in the race that looks to be loaded with speed and 2nd time Canini. The 2 is a REAL sneaky horse in that race. Race has speed, I hate the jock because I am going to be 5w going into the final turn but Lewis (trainer) has win %'s of 18% (dirt to turf) and 19% (1st time turf) and huge ROI's (3.65 and 4.70) respectively. That is out of 67 samples and 43 samples also. There is a couple jock changes I am praying for on Wednesday, that is one of them, along with Pick Vic in the 7th.
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#25
05-22-2007, 01:04 AM
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#26
05-22-2007, 01:23 AM
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Does someone want to organize it? I'd be interested. . .
__________________
@BDiDonatoTDN
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#27
05-22-2007, 05:04 AM
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I like Taylor's Route and Surf Town in the 3rd
I don't remember though if Mud Route a good turf sire. I like Surf Town simply because he looks like he has plenty of room for improvement.
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#28
05-22-2007, 06:57 AM
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id play in a pool....
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#29
05-22-2007, 11:21 AM
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the 3rd is very tough. I do like Casual Thunder on figs and connections but hate that he is 8 yrs old with one win. Still have not decided, using 3 of these 4......Behind The Magic, Duty Roster, Our Partner, Casual Thunder. One thing for sure, the pace will be quick....so look for those that will crumble trying to keep up (not necessarily those that will be on the lead) and toss them.
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#30
05-22-2007, 11:42 AM
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I fully expect this thing to pay handsomely, given the sequence, no gimme's
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#31
05-22-2007, 12:01 PM
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#32
05-22-2007, 12:15 PM
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I would use but definitely not single Casual Thunder, no way would I trust that one with the numerous past disappoints. Why has no one mentioned River Isalnds, improved last start and now makes third start off layoff, second turf start and was game last time while finishing ahead of Casual Thunder last time. I would also use the O'neil horse on the outside, Surf Town. I think he could be dangerous.
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#33
05-22-2007, 12:26 PM
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#34
05-22-2007, 07:50 PM
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the way i see it......
race 3 3 our partner 7 rival islands 2 duty roster race 4 2 kooky kelly 3 steel kitten 10 harrete topper t town sorry folks.. race 5 8 bersconie..my single race 6 8 lotta gamble lost all chance in last derby winning connections 10 weft cassidy owns trains 1 andf 1a race 7 6 shem 1 pick vic 4 idiot proof race 8 2 gotta go sal ...... win it all horse off the claim with impossible post last 3 star quality scrappy effort last out must use 5 obi naki mig fits conditions well.. thats it good luck all 324bucks and scav kiss my ass.. Last edited by hoovesupsideyourhead : 05-22-2007 at 10:23 PM.
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#35
05-22-2007, 07:53 PM
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Time constraints prevent me from playing.
 Good luck to all of you...but i'm hoping it triple carries. 
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#37
05-22-2007, 08:12 PM
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#38
05-22-2007, 08:23 PM
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A Very Modest Stab at the Luckiest Day of Your Life
R3 3 running well at the class level, and this sire is on fire 1st time turf
R4 5 should improve second time out... 9 or 10 could win but gotta take stand R5 4 improving 3yo, good turf sire, 2nd off layoff 5 again, improving 3yr, freshened, working well 8 pedigree and strong first effort R6 1a dropping off decent fig from very fast race 8 big drop working lights out R7 2 been running against very tough, handled pace to str at G2, freshened 3 mullins, 2nd of layoff, not a quitter 4 should win, but the kind of single that burns me every time, cut cost or go wider if you believe R8 2 back class, 1st after claim with trainer that produces winners, drop 3 2nd after layoff, seems to like poly OK, trainer, R/S picks up a pace meltdown 10 dropping from open to state bred (I know, not that big a deal in CA) fast fractions, could shake loose $108 $36 if you single Idiot Proof... Should be fun.... I/L
__________________
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