Hollywood Friday Night Pick Six (Carryovah)

[docicu3]

All right I am half done so far....

Race 3 1,2,3

Race 4 2,3,4

Race 5 5,6,8,9

Race 6 1,5,7

Race 7 1,4

Race 8 4,10

Will split into 3 tickets in ABC form but this is this is the first cut.

Potential singles.

Race 3 #3 Double trouble

Race 4 #3 Gary John

Race 5 #6 Chocalate Lava

Race 6 #7 Brooker

Race 7 No single

Race 8 #4 Social Satire

I am interested in what the real 'cappers here have to offer on races 6,7 as those are the most competitive.

Race 5 has 4-5 contenders and land mines in several of the firsters but that is always the case with MSW as well turf sprints, together the form is very difficult to forcast, so you take your shots and hit your knees to pray no act of God appears to steal it away....

[Scav]

Couple of things

1) I think the pool is going to be especially large today for only a 100k carryover, my guess is 1.3 or 1.5 million. Friday night tends to have alot of stupid money because we have nothing to do but unload on Hollywood, plus beer or other vices kick in and you start betting Bill Antongiogio.

2) The sequence is harder then it looks on paper, that first race can/will cause alot of problems, especially if Frankel's horse doesn't run well, he is the slowest in the race, yet 7/5 ML

3) I'll be playing tonight, a $600 ticket. I think this thing could pay, especially if you can beat the 4 in the last race, which I am going to mull over today. There won't be enough sharks in the pool yet so two bombs on a large ticket and you will have a shot at some serious cash

More to come on the card later

Originally Posted by Scav

Couple of things

1) I think the pool is going to be especially large today for only a 100k carryover, my guess is 1.3 or 1.5 million. Friday night tends to have alot of stupid money because we have nothing to do but unload on Hollywood, plus beer or other vices kick in and you start betting Bill Antongiogio.

2) The sequence is harder then it looks on paper, that first race can/will cause alot of problems, especially if Frankel's horse doesn't run well, he is the slowest in the race, yet 7/5 ML

3) I'll be playing tonight, a $600 ticket. I think this thing could pay, especially if you can beat the 4 in the last race, which I am going to mull over today. There won't be enough sharks in the pool yet so two bombs on a large ticket and you will have a shot at some serious cash

More to come on the card later

I agree on all points. Frankel's horse is a crazy 7/5 favorite.

I'll be back later tonight to post my ticket.

[philcski]

Some thoughts on R5:
1: works ok, trainer good on grass but poor FTS record, excluding
2: works average but sold for $85k as a 2YO in training, all speed, turf breeding mediocre but likely has speed and trainer going well; backup ticket
3: below average works, trainer poor with FTS, pass
4: 4/5 last year on this course, probably needed the race or didn't care for the cushiontrack, talamo on, using
5: working extremely well for seasonal debut, long layoff a big ?, best effort a route, o'neill going very poorly this meet, pass
6: has excellent :45 speed, battled magnficience then bombed on the cushiontrack, should find herself in a perfect spot turning for home, must use
7: working fantastic, trainer terrible with FTS but a stunning pedigree for this trip, also a must use
8: another who has shown quite a bit of ability thus far, probably should have made up more ground in the lane last out but note distance back to 3rd (8 1/4)
9: bombed on the cushion, two decent races at this trip but how many chances do you get? Pass
11: 500k syndicate purchase has shown little other than 1/4 mile speed, pace early? Pass
12: horrific post, good breeding for this trip, blinks go on, tough call, backup ticket if possible


I really like the 7's breeding for this event and works. If the trainer had ANY ability with firsters I'd make a balls single with her.

[Rootdog1]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

I agree on all points. Frankel's horse is a crazy 7/5 favorite.

I'll be back later tonight to post my ticket.

That horse was the fav first time out against the likes of Charm the Giant and other top turf horses. 7/5 is more then you are gonna get at post time. Now, I agree he is not the best single on the card but there really isnt a lot in this race. Maybe use the 1 also?

Love Lucky Vegas in the 4th, but have to use 3 in there. Tread lightly with Gary John.....that was a 4 horse field last time out and he is cutting back to 6f.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

That horse was the fav first time out against the likes of Charm the Giant and other top turf horses. 7/5 is more then you are gonna get at post time. Now, I agree he is not the best single on the card but there really isnt a lot in this race. Maybe use the 1 also?

Love Lucky Vegas in the 4th, but have to use 3 in there. Tread lightly with Gary John.....that was a 4 horse field last time out and he is cutting back to 6f.

Thank you for pointing that out. I just relooked and she is a single. Horse was off for 7 months and while Frankel wins with layoff horses, they almost always improve 2nd off the shelf. I worry about how cold he has been but maybe this is lock city and he is looking for a picture.

I also do not like Gary John, 8 days after a monster number, no thank you. A horse I just found as a possible use is Via Rodeo in the last. Horse needed a strong closer and Blanc gets aboard, bullet last work also.

[Bigsmc]

I'll be here later with my thoughts. Work is killing me, haven't even cracked the form yet. I also have a 3hr drive home ahead of me.

Luckily I have lots of time with the first post at 11pm Eastern.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Scav

Couple of things

1) I think the pool is going to be especially large today for only a 100k carryover, my guess is 1.3 or 1.5 million. Friday night tends to have alot of stupid money because we have nothing to do but unload on Hollywood, plus beer or other vices kick in and you start betting Bill Antongiogio.

2) The sequence is harder then it looks on paper, that first race can/will cause alot of problems, especially if Frankel's horse doesn't run well, he is the slowest in the race, yet 7/5 ML

3) I'll be playing tonight, a $600 ticket. I think this thing could pay, especially if you can beat the 4 in the last race, which I am going to mull over today. There won't be enough sharks in the pool yet so two bombs on a large ticket and you will have a shot at some serious cash

More to come on the card later

Also, if I hit this bitch tonight, I am claiming a horse Saturday/Sunday at Arlington

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

Thank you for pointing that out. I just relooked and she is a single. Horse was off for 7 months and while Frankel wins with layoff horses, they almost always improve 2nd off the shelf. I worry about how cold he has been but maybe this is lock city and he is looking for a picture.

I also do not like Gary John, 8 days after a monster number, no thank you. A horse I just found as a possible use is Via Rodeo in the last. Horse needed a strong closer and Blanc gets aboard, bullet last work also.

She's thrown some races that are good enough to win this, but how many chances do you get? At 0-18 and 6 straight losses at this level I'm inclined to stand against.

Gary John scares me both ways. I CANNOT single this horse, yet I can't throw him out either because if he is able to pair the last race he destroys this group. I don't like Gotta Getcha at ALL, whose one win (and good performance) was a garden trip odds on at 5.5F. I guess Soul Work has the most upside of these as he's lightly raced but the last, against similar, doesn't inspire confidence.

[whodey17]

I am sitting this pick 6 out. The card looks tough and there is going to be a $1mm dollar pick 6 on Monday. But good luck to those who are playing this tonight.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by whodey17

I am sitting this pick 6 out. The card looks tough and there is going to be a $1mm dollar pick 6 on Monday. But good luck to those who are playing this tonight.

Play both, you won $4k last night..

UNLOAD MY FRIEND, UNLOAD

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Ok i'm ready to talk about the card. Hope the rest of you are as well.

First off...

Third race-

Anyone think Double Trouble is vulnerable?

Bosset could give her all she can handle but her races so far in NA have been less than inspiring.

What's wrong with Fun Logic on the Cushion? Two starts, a win and a second to Cushion monster Cantabria. One can't assume that every turf horse will take to AW (Poly, Cushion, Tapeta, etc) or that every AW horse will take to turf. Frankel went through a spell at Saratoga a couple of years ago where he had numbers like this for a time - virus in the barn?

[Rootdog1]

Fun Logic is, well, Logical......two times on the cushion were pretty good. I assume she is not the horse of Double Trouble but it is possible as she looks to get a good trip. I cant figure out why Blanc is up for Frankel, nor do I think Double Trouble is a true speed horse.....alot of x factors.

By far the toughest race to figure out is the MSW turf 6f event. Wow....could go obvious, but some of the firsters are interesting.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

Fun Logic is, well, Logical......two times on the cushion were pretty good. I assume she is not the horse of Double Trouble but it is possible as she looks to get a good trip. I cant figure out why Blanc is up for Frankel, nor do I think Double Trouble is a true speed horse.....alot of x factors.

By far the toughest race to figure out is the MSW turf 6f event. Wow....could go obvious, but some of the firsters are interesting.

Root, I think that race is as easy as 6-7-8....I want to single the 6 but would rather toss those two in as precautionary, the 12 maybe, with the bottom side breeding

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

Fun Logic is, well, Logical......two times on the cushion were pretty good. I assume she is not the horse of Double Trouble but it is possible as she looks to get a good trip. I cant figure out why Blanc is up for Frankel, nor do I think Double Trouble is a true speed horse.....alot of x factors.

By far the toughest race to figure out is the MSW turf 6f event. Wow....could go obvious, but some of the firsters are interesting.

I think that I'll know exactly what I am doing with DT after I watch the replay. I want to see if he was a run away speed horse or just a horse that inheriated the lead because she was fresh. I think Blanc gets a perfect trip here off the 5, who is playable given his TG but trip wise, DT should get a perfect trip

[docicu3]

It bothers me that Talamo jumped off Double Trouble. Wouldn't you think the kid would want future rides from the Frankel barn? Does Mandella have that much juice with this kid or did Joe see something he didn't like.......horse had nada in the tank the last quarter and albeit it was a stakes race the horse didn't seem to run like his foreign wins.

Why would Talamo take a mount from an inferior horse???

[Rootdog1]

My guess is that the connections, probably owners, didnt like the way he was on the lead in that last race they opted to go elsewhere....I do not think it was Talamos call. He and Frankel were joined at the hip winning at a 50% clip for a while at the FG and at Santa Anita so it is rather strange.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by docicu3

It bothers me that Talamo jumped off Double Trouble. Wouldn't you think the kid would want future rides from the Frankel barn? Does Mandella have that much juice with this kid or did Joe see something he didn't like.......horse had nada in the tank the last quarter and albeit it was a stakes race the horse didn't seem to run like his foreign wins.

Why would Talamo take a mount from an inferior horse???

Agree, but Talamo might not be making decisions, and could have some sort of agreement in that if you ride this horse, you get to ride so and so in the future. That alone is the one reason I want to use all

[Late Fires]

What's the consensus on the 7th? 4-Super Strut and 2-Running Free have the back class, but you have to go back over a year to find a win for either, and does either want the added distance? (Mulhall says that Running Free doesn't, which is a scary sign, while Dollase claims that Super Strut does.) Any chance that 5-Ring of Friendship gets an uncontested lead and wires the field to improve to 2 for 2 at a mile and a half?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Late Fires

What's the consensus on the 7th? 4-Super Strut and 2-Running Free have the back class, but you have to go back over a year to find a win for either, and does either want the added distance? (Mulhall says that Running Free doesn't, which is a scary sign, while Dollase claims that Super Strut does.) Any chance that 5-Ring of Friendship gets an uncontested lead and wires the field to improve to 2 for 2 at a mile and a half?

Those are the only two I am using, 2 and 4