Saturday's Results

[Port Conway Lane]

I just checked his maidens in the last 30 days and while the results at the spa were below par he is 23% with all maidens. His top tier maidens appear to be below par. The graded stakes and allowance runners have been underperforming more so than his maidens.
I'd be alarmed if I was him but his itm % for graded stakes in the last 30 days is 50% so it's not as if they're running too poorly.

[GPK]

sorry...looking at the wrong column there.


Damn Miller Lite...

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

well ill jump on this..

a. his go to guy jv has been riding as if hes abit off ..sence his spills..

b. too many horses under his care .. micro managing 4 diffrent strings gets old
after so much success he may be letting his guys make more of the calls locally

c allday on vacation after some vets have gotten busted maybee the "extra attention" is lacking..

on a side note the non take down of the two at belmont was laughable...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I'd be alarmed if I was him but his itm % for graded stakes in the last 30 days is 50% so it's not as if they're running too poorly.

He was second with Rags to Riches at 2:5, second with Fairbanks at 3:5, second with Octave at 2:5, won with Any Given Saturday at 1:9 and finished fifth with The Leopard at 5:2.

He was 70 % to win with two of the horses, 82% with another, 62% with another and 25% with another.....and managed one win. His theorietical equity was around three wins. In these cases, at least, his ITM percentage is not relevent.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He was second with Rags to Riches at 2:5, second with Fairbanks at 3:5, second with Octave at 2:5, won with Any Given Saturday at 1:9 and finished fifth with The Leopard at 5:2.

He was 70 % to win with two of the horses, 82% with another, 62% with another and 25% with another.....and managed one win. His theorietical equity was around three wins. In these cases, at least, his ITM percentage is not relevent.

No doubt about it. There should be cause for concern.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

No doubt about it. There should be cause for concern.

Well, maybe after winning with a seemingly higher than expected number of horses for so long it's not shocking that things have evened out some lately. However, after such good results for so long it's surprising to see so many horses underperforming.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by GPK

whats really odd to me...is not just the drop in win % and ITM %...but the dramatic drop in starters. What could be to blame there?

I have not read this whole thread, pardon me if I repeat someone...

TP has dropped off in NY but in Jersey and Illinois he's maintained his usual figs. Has he changed help? Has the question of the condition of the racing/training surfaces been brought up?
Something clearly is amiss with the "A Team" that's based in NY. His numbers ot the elite level declined even while his stable has grown. To me that says theat they are getting hurt between races or before their debut. The condition of the tracks has been a hot button issue for horsemen and though Todd has not been extremely vocal, even in the wake of Rag's injury, I have to assume that it's playing a role.

Cardus: Yep, it was discussed regularly on the Spa backstretch and I'd guess it's still a topic of chat at Belmont.
BTW: I agree with your premise, but the The Leopard at anything less than 5-1 was a joke. Esp. after seeing Immortal Eyes choke in the Belmont MSW.

[docicu3]

Bear Now ran big as expected. Again I understand why Octave was the favorite but this one was more likely to go this way than not.

The fact that Octave got second was a small dissapointment but the Win price on Bear Now was quite frankly stunning as a return.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Bear Now ran big as expected. Again I understand why Octave was the favorite but this one was more likely to go this way than not.

The fact that Octave got second was a small dissapointment but the Win price on Bear Now was quite frankly stunning as a return.

red boarder...lol

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Linny

Has the question of the condition of the racing/training surfaces been brought up?
Something clearly is amiss with the "A Team" that's based in NY. His numbers ot the elite level declined even while his stable has grown. To me that says theat they are getting hurt between races or before their debut. The condition of the tracks has been a hot button issue for horsemen and though Todd has not been extremely vocal, even in the wake of Rag's injury, I have to assume that it's playing a role.

Trainers have been complaining about Passero sealing the track too much, and its effects on the surface, for years now. It is only now getting attention.....and hopefully the situation is being rectified. But, it's been an ongoing problem since he came to NY.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

red boarder...lol

Good to see you weren't swept away by the storm.......

Yes predicting a winner 3 dys prior to the race is red boarding!!!

Didn't play much today I need to take what I can get....

[docicu3]

Oh yeah....Todd doesn't like Delaware either Andy doesn't ship there as much as the other slot fueled tracks...and even less since the curse was layed on him.....

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Good to see you weren't swept away by the storm.......

Yes predicting a winner 3 dys prior to the race is red boarding!!!

Didn't play much today I need to take what I can get....

congrats

[PPerfectfan]

Originally Posted by GPK

sorry...looking at the wrong column there.


Damn Miller Lite...

I hate when that happens too!!

The supply of cobra venom is low right now.

[estreetposse]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Trainers have been complaining about Passero sealing the track too much, and its effects on the surface, for years now. It is only now getting attention.....and hopefully the situation is being rectified. But, it's been an ongoing problem since he came to NY.

The sealing of the track seems to be a big issue this year at the Spa...I really don't know about the conditions at the Big A and Belmont trackwise but as an employer who is about an hour west of Saratoga and must keep track of the the weather conditions for his crew, thunderstorms were rolling thru the Mohawk Valley and the foothills of the Adirondacks daily...many just missing the Saratoga area. I kept a weather watch a few times for friends as well who were at the track just to let them know if any rain was on the way...Maybe Passero did get a little carried away sealing the track like he did but there was a threat of severe storms and downpours quite a few of the days this summer. They might not of hit the Spa but you didn't have to travel far to see where they did hit.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

How was it so stunning? Didn't you like Moon Catcher in that race?

From the other thread..

For this race..

I like the angle about late developing 3 year olds who have improved recently continuing winning ways in this race and will try to beat Otave as well with Bear Now/Moon Catcher/Octave,Talking Bout Love and let the race hopefully bring value boxing combinations of these.

If Octave wins the race I lose if not I got a shot at decent payoffs.


I think it's pretty clear who I was playing to win. The dissapointment was with Octave taking second but hey....I'll take that price to win anytime. The moon catcher stuff was about the fig being the best at the distance.

[ddthetide]

why did jv take octave off the rail and run her in the 3 path the whole way around? when they turned for home the rail was Wide open and octave was in the 5-6 path. they ran most of the stretch in the middle of the track.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Well, maybe after winning with a seemingly higher than expected number of horses for so long it's not shocking that things have evened out some lately. However, after such good results for so long it's surprising to see so many horses underperforming.

Which we should cheering because if TAP is a play against then the payoff on the winners is higher than expected. Like today with Bear Now going off 8.40-1 when it opened at 5-1. As long as your picking winners Todd is making sure your paid better than you should expect

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Well, maybe after winning with a seemingly higher than expected number of horses for so long it's not shocking that things have evened out some lately. However, after such good results for so long it's surprising to see so many horses underperforming.

This Pletcher 'snide' has racked my brain since toga opened. I was at first chalking it up to the law of averages, and even the best of the best in every sport go through slumps. The high-profile runners have been well documented, most notibly R2R. It wasn't until the "Belle of Belmont" shocking defeat that I stood back and felt a tinny bit of pity for the rigid grey goose. The fact is that the entire barn is on tilt. The everyday maiden and alwn1x runners are not even coming close to running the type of races we have come to expect.

However, every weekend when I go to the OTB, I warn myself that this is the saturday that the T.A.P. reopens. I run to the windows to get the 5-1 that would of been 5-2 two months ago, feeling like the genius that thinks he is the first to notice a track bias.

I will say that that I made a hit with wait a while going on the angle that she did all her prepping at churchill away from all the bad karma.

I think he ran alot of good first timers at monmouth rather than waiting for toga. Alot of the dogwood horses and The Roundhouse I know won there. The snide will eventually end!

Good thread, BTW..