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#21
11-07-2007, 11:11 AM
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recap
Terrific election day card went pretty much according to hoyle, as one would expect from the most "form reliable" track in the country. The biggest win price on the day was in the nightcap and that was $13. Glad that some of the derby trail denizens took a day from their wretched NY racing and added to the pool, only sorry there were no scores.
The opening leg of the late 4 featured a dozen youngsters with nine of them being debut runners. We spread here looking for chaos and injecting some value into the play, but Robby wins it on the Klein homebred returning $10.40 and winning somewhat comfortably. Taking firsters in sequence bets is always a challenge and the horses must be both physically and mentally ready which requires the capper to make assumptions, oft times with limited or missing data. Our seven charges ran 1,2,3,4,5,6,and 8th and we escaped but expended serious capital to do so. Race 8 was an entry level allowance for f&m going six and a half panels. In this type of heat class generally trumps speed, yet most players bet the opposite! Calvins, Forestry filly laid all over them classwise returning a bettable $12.80 mostly due to to her polytrack debacle at Keeneland. Competent cappers noticed that in all four of her poly efforts this filly never ran a jump and her race at Saratoga two back need only be duplicated to get the money here. We included the runnerup on our ticket who won easily in her only dirt outing and was winless on the synthetic ovals in five tries. Few horses relish more than one surface. The feature is where our sequence imploded. We do not include horses because they "might win" on our tickets and it was difficult to have much confidence in Storm Treasure ($9.40) who won for the second time in a row after opening his career 1 for 18. Our selection Slam MY Heart figured a perfect trip and got it. The Romans colt had been in the money in seven of nine this year with two cases of being fractious. Didn't see the race but the chart indicates this one sat off the speed took over at the pole and wilted severely without cause. Perhaps what ever contributed double M to run this one for a tag, and the resulting sixty days off after the claim, reared its ugly head. 'Slam finished two lengths behind the horse he passed in the stretch so something went wrong and our ticket was toast. The caboose was extremely formful but the conditions disturb us. California racing secretaries, years ago, faced with a multitude of horses that had broken their maidens but could not find any winning level thereafter, wrote this type of race and thus this ridicuous condition. Not as bad as the ludicrous new scratch rule which will not last thru the meet but thats another story. POSSIBI ($13) wins it for the aggressive Maker and if you train for K. Ramsey you have to be purse driven. The PID form has been a learning experience but when you win by a dozen as a 2yo, then repeatedly work lights out, your plenty dangerous. Our other single ran huge but could not get to the winner dropping a neck decision at half the price. The $2 four came back a buck and a half short of three large and we suspect many would like to have their ticket back, we would. Post again Friday probably at letitride. BBB 
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#22
11-07-2007, 11:22 AM
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Getting past all the pompous double-talk, the bottom line as to why you didn't hit, virtually never do, and virtually never will, is that you simply do not bet in anything close to a responsible manner. I am loathe to think that anyone that genuinely wants to learn how to be successful in this game would pay you any mind whatsoever. Frankly, to spend as much time as you clearly seem to, and then bet only $14, is mind boggling. If you think so little of your own opinion how can you possibly expect anyone else to take you seriously?
Before taking your usual approach, or slamming me on another board, you should actually think about what I'm saying. In this case it's not at all whether you win or lose, but how you play the game......and you don't play it to win.
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#23
11-07-2007, 11:31 AM
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Sheesh. Don't encourage him to wager more $$$. He'll have posts that rival the old testament in length.
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#24
11-07-2007, 11:33 AM
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#25
11-07-2007, 12:10 PM
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#26
11-07-2007, 12:13 PM
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I tossed a Smokey and the Bandit line out last week that went by completely unnoticed. Before you fire back, I will say it for you..."Smokey and the Bandit is bootleg, how is anyone going to recognize a line from it?"
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#27
11-07-2007, 07:15 PM
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BTW
I have thought about your post and have read it thrice and I have no clue what you are trying to say. I agree my bet was a bit reckless, but the prices in the opening leg were hard to pass up, and I injected a ton of potential coin into the play. In hindsight, I should have added the colt in the last who had about a fifteen percent higher chance of winning than the Five Star Day filly in the eighth, culling her off the ticket. I make many more statistical errors than cappin ones. If I trashed you elsewhere and you did not deserve it, I apologize. BBB
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#28
11-07-2007, 07:23 PM
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It wasn't reckless....it was fruitless. Until you even make an attempt to learn to play multi-race wagers, with an actual focus on winning, you will be wasting your time. It is more important to learn to construct tickets in a manner that gives you a chance to win, assuming your opinions are at least OK, than it is to handicap successfully. The most successful bettors I know are far better at putting their play together than they are at handicapping. There's a great deal of ego in this game, and we all have one, but the most important thing is making money, not picking winners. You need to learn that these two things are far from one and the same.
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#29
11-07-2007, 07:30 PM
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Let me add......take a good luck at the Aqueduct Pick-6 thread from today. The person who won hit it did so because he constructed his play tremendously well, moreso I dare say than he handicapped brilliantly, and I think there is a great deal to be learned from that.
Also, please read " Exotic Betting " by Steve Crist.
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#30
11-07-2007, 08:48 PM
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#32
11-07-2007, 08:56 PM
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He must be very young.
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#33
11-07-2007, 08:56 PM
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#35
11-07-2007, 08:58 PM
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70's. Burt Reynolds and Sally Field (after The Flying Nun stint).
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#37
11-07-2007, 09:00 PM
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I didn't realize Bozo was still around after the 70's.
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#39
11-07-2007, 09:04 PM
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I don't think he lasted that long in Massachusetts. Or he moved to Chicago.....
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#40
11-07-2007, 09:06 PM
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HOw ironic that we both participated...
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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