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#24
12-04-2007, 12:01 PM
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#25
12-04-2007, 12:05 PM
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Its f*cking depressing around these parts...especially this time of the year. I can't get out of here soon enough.
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#27
12-04-2007, 01:48 PM
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Yeah...still up and running. Cornedbeef and Cornerstone Bar are the only 2 decent places downtown to hang out at. Then again, if you blink, you can miss the whole downtown alltogether...
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#29
12-04-2007, 02:21 PM
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Yea, I will only to take a stab in the contest as well. A caveman ticket at that. I have no time, and after this past weekend, I have little scratchola to my name. Not to mention the weeks to come, Oye oye oye....
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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#30
12-04-2007, 04:22 PM
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Contest Entry
Tried to get through HOL last night so maybe I could peak at AQU tonight...
Decided to hang my hat on Wingspan. I will live or die with her and take the extra coverage elsewhere. Main Ticket R3 - 1,6,7,10 R4 - 2,8,12 R5 - 1,5 R6 - 2,4,6,10 R7 - 5 R8 - 1,3,7 $576 Cover #1 R3 - 5 R4 - 2,8,12 R5 - 5 R6 - 2,6,10 R7 - 5 R8 - 1,3,7 $54 Cover #2 R3 - 6,10 R4 - 1,3,9,10 R5 - 5 R6 - 2,6,10 R7 - 5 R8 - 3,7 $96 Cover #3 R3 - 6,10 R4 - 2,8,12 R5 - 5 R6 - 1,5,12 R7 - 5 R8 - 3,7 $72 Grand Total - $798 Good Luck! Last edited by pmacdaddy : 12-05-2007 at 02:34 PM.
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#31
12-04-2007, 04:30 PM
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P6 Analysis
Race 3 - MSW Cal-Breds - 8f Turf
An interesting start to the Pick Six as the race has a couple obvious horses, 1 horse that will get played that isn't that good, and 1 that could surprise. #5 Dee's Fling is very interesting. After being off for over 18 months Robbins dropped him into the open maiden claiming ranks, which can be seen as a protected race that he could run well in, he now comes back to statebreds and jumps him up in class, two good recent works and throws the blinks on. Robbins is 10% better 2nd off the layoff. #7 Lost Paradise's last race is better then it shows, it was a 5 horse field with a crazy front horse that drifted out and left the rail wide open for the winner, while Lost Paradise was being confidently ridden 4w. The 2nd that Talamo saw Tizmet get through, he touched him and he took off only to get tired from being wide the whole time. Is bred to love the lawn with Manila being his damnsire and has the tactical speed to get a great lawn trip. #10 Apoplectic is by Unusual Heat, who moves his horses up nearly 5 TG points when they hit the lawn. 2 sprints and now stretching out and while the post is a concern, I like that Tyler is staying aboard, and that he hits at 33% with Zucker. #6 Brian the Bold is going to take money and honestly I don't think he is good enough to win. While his last race was down the hill, he got a perfect pace scenario to blow but couldn't (44-half, 107-6f). A toss for me Race 4 - Claiming 10k 3+ - 5.5 furlongs Most of these cheap claimers in California are a pain in the ass to handicap and this one is no different. Just so hard to have a solid opinion on so many inconsistent horses. #12 Call or Raise is the most consistent horse TG-wise but the drop from 25k to 10k is VERY suspcious to me, especially for a trainer like Mitchell who usually is rising them in class and the horse ran well last time at the 25k level, so why drop? If Nakatini was off him, I would be tossing him, but since he is still on I have to use him. Both #8 Dark Past and #9 Hemet will be running off a last race top but with different circumstances. Dark Past recently improved 4 pts while dropping back into state breds and now is back in open company. Should be the speed of the race, in a race with lots of it (#2,#4,#6). Montelone, the trainer of #9 Hemet, is a tricky trainer. He scores with Espinoza at 31%, is 22% off the layoff and the horse has a long string of decent works. I do like that he will be stalking. #7 Alpine Sport is another that will be stalking and has past number power. Gets a 41 day break, blinkers added, two good recent works and Wallace has been 22% the last 90 days. Also consider the #5 Smoke N Wagers. I accidently bypassed his sheet and his last race is better then it looks, although he got the supreme pace setup, if the same thing happens again, the jock change could be the difference, albeit a small one Race 5 - MSW - 8.5f A very interesting race because I can see many people singling #5 Life at Ten, the recent Pletcher purchase. She finished very strongly once shown daylight and should improve off the barn switch (even though Hendricks have been on fire recently) and distance increase. Note that 3rd place finisher Ready for Fortune came back to win on Sunday. #6 Skylighter, trained by Frankel, has the best debut figure, and it is not too fast so improvement should also happen here. 3 good works over the strip and the Frenchman aboard, Frankel is 25% BETTER with 2nd time starters (10% 1st time winner, 35% 2nd time winners). Another that is bred to love the route distance. #1 Tates Queen should benefit tremendously from the blinkers. In her two recent performances she doesn't look focused until the final furlong, hopefully closing her sight will get her into the race earlier. She is coming into the race with a great TG pattern, one that usually signals a move forward. Hard to separate the 3 IMO. Race 6 - Claiming 25k - 5.5 furlongs Another very hard claiming race in California and would not fault people hitting the Schrup button. We obviously don't have that luxury. #2 Ghosttrapper returns to the 25k level after trying the 40k level and running poorly, after having some traffic issues. Sherman always dangerous, and is 23% the last 90 days. #6 Count Orange drops in class and might be returning to his friends. Tyler gets aboard and should have the right pace set up. Also seems to be cycling back to some better numbers after West has gotten a hold of him. #10 Smart Hit is dropping to his lowest level and while I am not a fan of Enriquez, he has the number power and could be a great price, always seems to be around and maybe the drop is what is needed. #11 Monarcho Polo is a hunch play. This horse keeps on getting new riders and different tactics, I am guessing he is one confused horse. That being said, he drops back to the 25k level, where he won by 5 lengths way back in November of 06. Another that could be a great price and should get a decent trip. Race 7 - Hermosa Beach Handicap - 12 furlongs Turf This is a forced single for me in #5 Wingspan. You gotta single somewhere, IMO, and the horse has the best numbers and best connections. Trip is less of a factor unless you get lone speed in a race like this. I am concerned with #7 Higher Love, who is shipping in from No. Cal for Steve Miyadi. That last race is a toss and if you go back to his last 4 turf races he is competitive. He is also bred to love the long route. Race 8 - Maiden Claiming 40k - 6 furlongs It looks like the favorite, #10 Partywithlarryz, is scratched in this race as I just went to DRF and he is no longer posted in the race. If he is in the race for some reason, he is a must use. Sadler's other horse, #3 Familiar Stranger is also a very strong contender, I would have liked to see a rise in class to the 62.5 or even MSW level but this will still do. Claimed off of Mullins, could go gate to wire. If #15 Obedience gets in, he is also a contender, getting blinkers and Nakatini with a good recent work. #4 High Investment sees like a hanger but continues to have the underestimated Joel Rosario aboard and if a pace meltdown happens, he will be right there at the end. Last edited by Scav : 12-04-2007 at 10:13 PM.
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#32
12-04-2007, 06:08 PM
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If I got to single it'll be Rockella in the 7th.I'd rather go down with a horse with an attitude like that.If somebody has info on a reason for this chalk horse's disappointing runs,then I'll listen,but I am not going down with that one.If they found something wrong,and fixed it,then maybe.Just seems like they shuffling her around to find some course she likes.
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#33
12-04-2007, 06:19 PM
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#35
12-04-2007, 07:51 PM
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__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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#36
12-04-2007, 10:09 PM
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Race 4 - Claiming 10k 3+ - 5.5 furlongs
Most of these cheap claimers in California are a pain in the ass to handicap and this one is no different. Just so hard to have a solid opinion on so many inconsistent horses. #12 Call or Raise is the most consistent horse TG-wise but the drop from 25k to 10k is VERY suspcious to me, especially for a trainer like Mitchell who usually is rising them in class and the horse ran well last time at the 25k level, so why drop? If Nakatini was off him, I would be tossing him, but since he is still on I have to use him. Both #8 Dark Past and #9 Hemet will be running off a last race top but with different circumstances. Dark Past recently improved 4 pts while dropping back into state breds and now is back in open company. Should be the speed of the race, in a race with lots of it (#2,#4,#6). Montelone, the trainer of #9 Hemet, is a tricky trainer. He scores with Espinoza at 31%, is 22% off the layoff and the horse has a long string of decent works. I do like that he will be stalking. #7 Alpine Sport is another that will be stalking and has past number power. Gets a 41 day break, blinkers added, two good recent works and Wallace has been 22% the last 90 days. Those are the exact words that I wrote on my form. I am taking a stand against.
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#37
12-04-2007, 10:10 PM
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#38
12-04-2007, 10:47 PM
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Had time at work to take a look. Here is my entry.
R3: 2,4,5,6,7 R4: 8,9,10 R5: 1,5,7 R6: 2,3 R7: 5 R8: 2,3,4 $540 Ticket Ticket #2 R3: 6,7 R4: 9,12 R5: 1,5,6 R6: 2,10 R7: 1,5 R8: 3,4 $192 ticket $732 total. Good Luck everyone.
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