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#1
02-04-2008, 01:47 PM
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How does this horse pay $55?!
I was going through the weekend's results at Philly Park this weekend because I'm thinking about starting to follow that track and came across this result from Saturday:
7th Race Next Post 3:35 Off: 3:08 | 6 Furlongs | 3 Year Olds | Maiden Special Weight | Purse: $40,000 # Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show 7 Tempered Fate Flores J L 121 55.80 22.00 12.00 9 Really King E L Jr 121 17.60 6.60 2 Two Dragons Vega H 121 4.20 Winning Trainer: Dutrow Anthony W - Owner: Zayat Stables, LLC How does a Tony Dutrow/Zayat horse pay that much at Philly?! He's by Distorted Humor and was the sale topper ($260K) at the OBS June '07 . His dam is also a 1/2 to Anees. . . What am I missing here?! 
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#2
02-04-2008, 01:52 PM
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Pom Poms?
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#3
02-04-2008, 01:55 PM
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Dutrow shows .08% with first time starters from 60. Horse also only shows 1 work
 There were certainly a few more in there that made more sense on paper...but hey..what do you do?
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#5
02-04-2008, 01:59 PM
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I don't know how he paid $55......but I do know why he won.
I bet the second horse.
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#7
02-04-2008, 02:03 PM
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Quote:
This is probably the first horse I have made an actual bet on at Phili Park in a long time. Take a look at the pps of the second horse. He had a monsterous against the bias trip when finishing third to that Kiaran trap in the Swale at Gulfstream.
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#8
02-04-2008, 02:07 PM
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Ok...I see where he was 3rd to Wincat in his last out in a MSW. Help me with the Swale at Gulfstream part?
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#9
02-04-2008, 02:09 PM
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Quote:
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#10
02-04-2008, 02:10 PM
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Wincat finished third in the Swale.
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#13
02-04-2008, 02:18 PM
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FTFY. The other stuff here is absurd redboarding.
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#15
02-04-2008, 02:21 PM
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Fixed That For You.
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#16
02-04-2008, 02:24 PM
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Quote:
How often do you think that happens? Horse has one published work and "ok...lets give him a shot and see how he runs"??
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#17
02-04-2008, 02:30 PM
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I wouldn't be so specific but I think connections are frequently fooled. Most of the time they think they have a runner and are wrong but most big priced firsters, especially from reasonably high profile connections, are surprises.
Anthony Dutrow is a sharp guy, and as was pointed out, the Phili pools aren't very big, so it's pretty unlikely they were at all excited by this horse's chances, at least in this race.
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#18
02-04-2008, 02:38 PM
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Quote:
Good deal...thanks for the insight.
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#19
02-04-2008, 04:03 PM
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Tony Dutrow and Mercedes Stable hit with a 15/1 shot debuter at Philly Park a month or so ago - that I bet.
That horse was a 700K 2yo RNA. The Distorted Humor sales topper that paid all that money to win, that horse didn't even work under-tack - and was probably not an overlay at all if it was ignored that much in the betting. Just happened to win.
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