Dubai on TVG?

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Scav

at least 10/1 on Jalil. I think Curlin has a 90% chance of winning, and I am only assigning that 10% not winning because of the hilarious things that can happen, even in the desert, in racing.

-Training like a monster
-2nd start off the layoff
-decent figure off the layoff
-lays over the field
-decent post, allows him to survey what is going on

He just isn't going to lose. If for some reason the public allows him to go off at like 4/5, it might be absolutely unload time for me, but I am guessing more like 1/2 or 2/5

He can come 2nd...I have one question.Is there anybody here who has followed the game for atleast 15 years,and still gets excited about betting chalk horses (like this) to win less money than you have to put up? If you have to "unload," to make money,then you are going to end up in Gamblers Anonymous.Obviously,some people bet heavy on horses,but if they aren't having a chance to win a hell of a lot more than they are putting up,then they are in trouble(unless they have simply got endless resources.) I am not talking specifics here.I am not saying this horse can't win or whatever.I mean,in general,this activity will kick your a_s_s.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

He can come 2nd...I have one question.Is there anybody here who has followed the game for atleast 15 years,and still gets excited about betting chalk horses (like this) to win less money than you have to put up? If you have to "unload," to make money,then you are going to end up in Gamblers Anonymous.Obviously,some people bet heavy on horses,but if they aren't having a chance to win a hell of a lot more than they are putting up,then they are in trouble(unless they have simply got endless resources.) I am not talking specifics here.I am not saying this horse can't win or whatever.I mean,in general,this activity will kick your a_s_s.

This horse should be 1/5 or 2/5 in this field, if I can get TWICE that, 4/5, I percieve that as value and I will bet accordingly.

All it is, is a 3 minute (Plus however long to be official) loan as far as I am concerned because the horse aint losing.

And I obviously don't do this all the time, because I don't usually bet 4/5, unless I think the horse should be 1/2....

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Scav

This horse should be 1/5 or 2/5 in this field, if I can get TWICE that, 4/5, I percieve that as value and I will bet accordingly.

All it is, is a 3 minute (Plus however long to be official) loan as far as I am concerned because the horse aint losing.

And I obviously don't do this all the time, because I don't usually bet 4/5, unless I think the horse should be 1/2....

Siegel said exactly this stuff about WAR PASS(couple weeks ago .)Would seem one of you should be right.So,good luck.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

SCAV,what I don't get is, if you're a good bettor, you shouldn't need to play this obvious stuff for meager odds.It's like George trying to buy a championship for the Yankees.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

SCAV,what I don't get is, if you're a good bettor, you shouldn't need to play this obvious stuff for meager odds.It's like George trying to buy a championship for the Yankees.

Again, I am not going to play him at 2/5 or 1/5, but if he drifts up to 4/5, where people are going to try and beat him, I won't try and beat him.

Being a good bettor doesn't necessarily mean playing horses at larger odds or more favorable, it is taking advantage of situations where you feel you are at an advantage.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

This horse should be 1/5 or 2/5 in this field, if I can get TWICE that, 4/5, I percieve that as value and I will bet accordingly.

All it is, is a 3 minute (Plus however long to be official) loan as far as I am concerned because the horse aint losing.

And I obviously don't do this all the time, because I don't usually bet 4/5, unless I think the horse should be 1/2....

way too risky especially in this case if you ask me. you can't have a good handle on some of these horses given that they are coming from so many different countries so to me its hard to be sure that that value is real. everybody and their mother will be doing the same thing.

you've got big turf races in front of this race, with big fields and legit longshot potential. if you like curlin why not try to get much better odds with a double or pk3?

[CSC]

Curlin is the best horse to come along in quite awhile well atleast since Invasor ran, you can put those 2 in a class of their own. His numbers have been on the improve the more he matures.

Saying that I wouldn't want to sweat too much for my money tommorow, 2 mins of anticipation even on Curlin is a little more I would want to bargain for at his probable 1-2 odds.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Scav

Again, I am not going to play him at 2/5 or 1/5, but if he drifts up to 4/5, where people are going to try and beat him, I won't try and beat him.

Being a good bettor doesn't necessarily mean playing horses at larger odds or more favorable, it is taking advantage of situations where you feel you are at an advantage.

I am talking generally (about doing this.)In general,if you continue to bet more than your profit will be,then you will struggle mightily.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

way too risky especially in this case if you ask me. you can't have a good handle on some of these horses given that they are coming from so many different countries so to me its hard to be sure that that value is real. everybody and their mother will be doing the same thing.

you've got big turf races in front of this race, with big fields and legit longshot potential. if you like curlin why not try to get much better odds with a double or pk3?

I am trying to get away from P3's and you SUCK ME BACK IN...

How much money are really going to be in those P3 pools though?

I know...I haven't decided on how tomorrow is going to go yet.

This conversation is probably pointless given the fact that he will be 1/5 or 2/5 and in that case, I am obviously not playing him....

[Scav]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

I am talking generally (about doing this.)In general,if you continue to bet more than your profit will be,then you will struggle mightily.

Scuds, do I sit and tout 3/5's all the time? I think this is a unique circumstance. Honestly, I wouldn't even be talking about this but with his prep over the track and being under the lights, this is the only reason I am considering it, if the odds are right

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

I am trying to get away from P3's and you SUCK ME BACK IN...

I know...I haven't decided on how tomorrow is going to go yet.

This conversation is probably pointless given the fact that he will be 1/5 or 2/5 and in that case, I am obviously not playing him....

that was a general comment, honestly I don't see the race as playable. its not my kind of play. even if I think he's a sure thing which I really do, the odds will be just too low.

i do think some bombs could come out of the rest of the card, i've got a few i'm looking at.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

that was a general comment, honestly I don't see the race as playable. its not my kind of play. even if I think he's a sure thing which I really do, the odds will be just too low.

i do think some bombs could come out of the rest of the card, i've got a few i'm looking at.

It's not my kind of play either, agreed on that. However, this race can be played in the same vein as War Pass losing to the Tagg horse. The best horse doesn't always run their race for whatever reason, if you want to take a shot that lighting will strike, the payoff may be worth it. Again I just don't like that method of betting, however it would be feasible as long as you know before going in that Curlin is the best horse, and you are betting that he has an off day, that is what you are betting on.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

that was a general comment, honestly I don't see the race as playable. its not my kind of play. even if I think he's a sure thing which I really do, the odds will be just too low.

i do think some bombs could come out of the rest of the card, i've got a few i'm looking at.

I like Archipenko in the Duty Free at a price, Linngari also. I think Notional has a shot at running real big. Never thought I would say that. I also think the first three are fairly formful. But the Duty Free has a shot at a monster horse, and the race after I have given up on. In the 5th I will be boxing Notional, Archipenko, Creachadoir, and Linngari, and in the 6th I am boxing Sun Classique, Gravitas, Viva Pataca, and Doctor Dino. I might also use the far outside horse, Gower Song.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

I like Archipenko in the Duty Free at a price, Linngari also. I think Notional has a shot at running real big. Never thought I would say that. I also think the first three are fairly formful. But the Duty Free has a shot at a monster horse, and the race after I have given up on. In the 5th I will be boxing Notional, Archipenko, Creachadoir, and Linngari, and in the 6th I am boxing Sun Classique, Gravitas, Viva Pataca, and Doctor Dino. I might also use the far outside horse, Gower Song.

I'm with you on Archipenko.
also give a look to the horse MMSC has been touting, Latency. last grass effort in Arg he carried 134 lbs and drew off by open lengths in a gr1 against 23 opponents. of course you do have to look past the nad al sheba dirt prep race, but maybe that was only for condition. not a strong chance I know, but the horse will be a huge price. that is a deep race.

[cmorioles]

For those interested, I posted my figures for the whole card as the Race of the Week on my site.

All foreign race figures are free Racing Post figures and converted to the Beyer scale using my own proprietary formula.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

For those interested, I posted my figures for the whole card as the Race of the Week on my site.

All foreign race figures are free Racing Post figures and converted to the Beyer scale using my own proprietary formula.

thanks, thats really helpful.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

The horse has gone off low 3 times.Twice he got beat doing it,and once he won doing it.He lost at 4/5,and even money.He won at 4/5.I guess I just don't understand why you want him less than even money(when you could of had him at over 4-1.)Yes,he ran huge,but unless he is running in the slop again,then I think he could run 2nd or 3rd again.Other than that Grade 1 race,he hasn't been dominant in Grade 1 races.He has been very competitive in them,but he has only drawn off in one Grade 1 race. I guess most everyone thinks his real self is gunna be to now do what he did at the B.C. on a dry track.Maybe,but I don't know.I think his real self may still be to win or lose by a neck in big races.The Juvenile filly winner,and B.C. Sprint winner haven't looked as dominant as they did that day in the slop.

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

For those interested, I posted my figures for the whole card as the Race of the Week on my site.

All foreign race figures are free Racing Post figures and converted to the Beyer scale using my own proprietary formula.

Very nice. Thanks

[TitanSooner]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

For those interested, I posted my figures for the whole card as the Race of the Week on my site.

All foreign race figures are free Racing Post figures and converted to the Beyer scale using my own proprietary formula.

Thanks CJ!

[Oaklawnfan]

I realize I'm about to get my head handed to me for asking this question.... But is there anyone who feels we are already sending these people enough money as it is. Gas is over $3 a gallon. If the Sheiks get to buy our best horses for stud, could they lower the price of crude to less than $100 a barrel?

Signed, Conservative in the Ozarks.