3rd Derby Future Book Wager

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

I'll take the field at 15-1 and hope Eight Belles goes in the derby.

Last year, "all others" in Pool 3 closed at 25.5-1, but the average close since 2000 is 14-1.

Here are PP's for the 23 individual Pool 3 entries:

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/..._123_pool3.pdf

--Dunbar

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

I'll take the field at 15-1 and hope Eight Belles goes in the derby.

Why would you do that when there is maybe a 25% chance that Eight Belles goes to the Derby, and then even when she gets there, you'd get WAY better odds on derby day...probably in the 30-1 range at least.

[Benny Leger]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Battaglia is all over the place. I never understand his line-making with this thing at all.

neither does he

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Why would you do that when there is maybe a 25% chance that Eight Belles goes to the Derby, and then even when she gets there, you'd get WAY better odds on derby day...probably in the 30-1 range at least.

As an FYI... of the Jones' fillies, from what I hear, Proud Spell is far more likely to try Derby than Eight Belles..

[Oaklawnfan]

Originally Posted by Kasept

As an FYI... of the Jones' fillies, from what I hear, Proud Spell is far more likely to try Derby than Eight Belles..

Eight Belles will run in the Fantasy at Oaklawn, rather than the Arkansas Derby.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Oaklawnfan

Eight Belles will run in the Fantasy at Oaklawn, rather than the Arkansas Derby.

O/F..

Got ya... I was refering to Kentucky with Proud Spell (v. Eight Belles)...

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Why would you do that when there is maybe a 25% chance that Eight Belles goes to the Derby, and then even when she gets there, you'd get WAY better odds on derby day...probably in the 30-1 range at least.

It's not that simple. You would probably get a few other Derby runners with the "All others" bet. So you can't compare it directly to waiting for Eight Belles in the Derby.

--Dunbar

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

It's not that simple. You would probably get a few other Derby runners with the "All others" bet. So you can't compare it directly to waiting for Eight Belles in the Derby.

--Dunbar

Ya but who else are you getting that has any shot?

[cakes44]

Horses like Turf War, Z Humor, and Majestic Warrior...horses with no shot. There is NO value in taking "all others" in Pool 3. None.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Horses like Turf War, Z Humor, and Majestic Warrior...horses with no shot. There is NO value in taking "all others" in Pool 3. None.

I guess that ends the discussion.

Nah.

I guess there's NO chance a surprise horse will emerge from the Blue Grass or the Arkansas Derby. (not to mention the chance that one emerges this weekend.) Zero chance.

We are talking about odds that will probably be somewhere between 14-1 and 20-1. For those odds to be fair, the horses should have a combined chance of winning of around 5-6%. Five horses from All Others make it on average. So, if one legitimate 30-1 shot and one legitimate 50-1 shot emerges from the remaining preps, the All Others would have value even if the rest had an average chance of 1/200 of winning the Derby. There's zero chance of that happening, of course.

The fact that horses from All Others of Pool 3 have gone on to win the Derby in 2 of the 9 editions of Pool 3 must have happened in some other universe.

--Dunbar

fwiw, I don't have a strong opinion about whether there is value in betting All Others in Pool 3. I do have a very strong opinion about whether the All Others horses could win the Derby. I'm sure, for instance, that I'd be all over it at 100-1, and I'd be confident there was huge value in that.

[hailrazer]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Why would you do that when there is maybe a 25% chance that Eight Belles goes to the Derby, and then even when she gets there, you'd get WAY better odds on derby day...probably in the 30-1 range at least.

Wasn't saying Eight Belles was any kind of value at 15-1 and I won't be playing the future bet. Just saying that I like the horse and would like to her on my side if she goes in the Derby, along with the other horses that may impress in the last preps and end up in the field. Out of the 25 options listed, this is the one I would choose.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Scurlogue Champ

I have a feeling that the limit of 24 could have something to do with tote...

with today's technology, it would be so simple to adjust the totes if necessary. They can use that as an excuse, but it is not reality

[Thunder Gulch]

Give me some Court Vision, currently 30-1 (9am Friday). Ok, his final number will depend on what he does tomorrow, but I think he's the best suited of the "second tier" horses.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Give me some Court Vision, currently 30-1 (9am Friday). Ok, his final number will depend on what he does tomorrow, but I think he's the best suited of the "second tier" horses.

I'll give you 30-1 right now without waiting to see what he does tomorrow.

[Scav]

I know this sounds funny, but their could be value on Pyro in this pool, assuming it closes on Sunday. If you were to get 6/1 on Pyro in this pool, because of the legion of Big Brown followers, and Pyro goes and wins the BG easily, he will be the 3/1 favorite in the Derby, and the most likely winner. Something to consider.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Scav

I know this sounds funny, but their could be value on Pyro in this pool, assuming it closes on Sunday. If you were to get 6/1 on Pyro in this pool, because of the legion of Big Brown followers, and Pyro goes and wins the BG easily, he will be the 3/1 favorite in the Derby, and the most likely winner. Something to consider.

What Pyro does in the Blue Grass will be about as relevant to my Derby handicapping as how he looked as a yearling and what his dosage index is. That race is a total toss. Look for another turf horse like Cowboy Cal to win it and possibly get you better than 6/1 on Pyro on Derby Day.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

What Pyro does in the Blue Grass will be about as relevant to my Derby handicapping as how he looked as a yearling and what his dosage index is. That race is a total toss. Look for another turf horse like Cowboy Cal to win it and possibly get you better than 6/1 on Pyro on Derby Day.

If that is the case then it is my only play of the weekend, this horse is going to win the Derby this year, so I guess I wouldn't mind a real bad performance on the tires.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Scav

If that is the case then it is my only play of the weekend, this horse is going to win the Derby this year, so I guess I wouldn't mind a real bad performance on the tires.

Yeah, the worst thing that could happen would be for Pyro to take to the poly and run a big one.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Scurlogue Champ

I have a feeling that the limit of 24 could have something to do with tote...

it does, it may be the stupidest pool alive. in the first two, none of the above is usually the fave .if your a day to day person in this game. taking anything less than 30-1 in these things is dumb. as for the derby i've been burned enough times now to know better . betting horses like big brown or war pass at low odds is about the worse bet one can make! you got to take a shot in this race or just watch. if you don't go out on a limb you are wasting your time.

[hockey2315]

Like I keep saying - CCM is the value in this pool. These odds are absurd.

Horses like Adriano (spaz/turf horse), Big Truck (slow), Court Vision (slow), El Gato Malo(poly horse/distance ?s), TOMCITO (needs more than 10F to win), Visionaire(distance limitations), and Z Fortune (awful last race) are ahead of him despite the fact that he's 2-for-2 this year (both at 9F), has faster beyers than almost all of them, has a win at CD, has the perfect stalking style for the derby, has top connections, is bred to route, etc...