Wow, how much is Dutrow wagering the first Saturday in May?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Danzig

really? like what? hope i don't sound like a smarty pants, but i don't see how he has an edge compared to bellamy. but then, i liked bellamy road.

Bellamy's field was about 10X better than this one... take a look at the pp's (available on DRF http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...erby_pps.pdf)- half the field would be the 2nd choice in here. And that wasn't even that strong of a Derby.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Nistle's Crunch totally ran off with the blinkers and would have more than ran with him if Julian hadn't resorted to a choke hold.

With Georgie Boy gone, who's run individual races even remotely as good as Big Brown?

People are playing pretend with themselves if they don't think Big Brown goes into the Derby as by far the best horse.

The reason to not like Big Brown's Derby chances is because he's a very poor fit for the race style wise.

I can't even imagine how far out there people have to be to think there is another horse who's best race is as good as his best race.

I'm very excited to bet Pyro - but he has no individual race that rates competitively with any of Big Brown's.

Drugsy, you are saying exactly what I'm what I'm saying. If he can't rate, and runs off with Desormeaux, he won't win, or if he's not really a mile and a quarter horse he won't win. But for anyone to claim there's been a better prep than the Florida Derby (which could have been a 113 Beyer, at that) they're fooling themselves.

Is betting a horse at 7/2 in the Derby exciting? Absolutely not, which is why everyone's lining up to take shots at his chances.

[hockey2315]

What do you mean it could have been a 113 beyer?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

But for anyone to claim there's been a better prep than the Florida Derby (which could have been a 113 Beyer, at that) they're fooling themselves.

Oh, there have been better preps than the Florida Derby this year for sure - just not a better performance by the winner.

If you look at what was fractured in behind him ... there wasn't much at all.

Though, Smooth Air and Tomcito both clearly had better trips than Big Brown did.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

What do you mean it could have been a 113 beyer?

If they hadn't run another nine furlong dirt race an hour later the fact that the track was rapidly sped up after the Bonnie Miss would have been concealed.

[hockey2315]

Right. Figured that's what he meant. Just don't see the relevance.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Oh, there have been better preps than the Florida Derby this year for sure - just not a better performance by the winner.

If you look at what was fractured in behind him ... there wasn't much at all.

Though, Smooth Air and Tomcito both clearly had better trips than Big Brown did.

Agree- however the race has been verified as the three runners that came back so far, Hey Byrn (won the Holy Bull), Nistle's Crunch (won an allowance @ KEE), and Tomcito (ran better than his Fl Derby figure despite finishing 6th), all have run acceptably well.

Let's face it, this is a putrid group. Colonel John would have finished 5th in the '05 SA Derby... and that was probably the worst SA Derby ever. And he's probably going to be the 2nd choice in the Derby...

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

Agree- however the race has been verified as the three runners that came back so far, Hey Byrn (won the Holy Bull), Nistle's Crunch (won an allowance @ KEE), and Tomcito (ran better than his Fl Derby figure despite finishing 6th), all have run acceptably well.

Let's face it, this is a putrid group. Colonel John would have finished 5th in the '05 SA Derby... and that was probably the worst SA Derby ever. And he's probably going to be the 2nd choice in the Derby...

You can't use Nistle's Crunch, completely different circumstance...Hey Byrn beat a bunch of cows in that race, and I kinda agree that Tomcito is a crow

Bad example IMO, although I do like the winners out of a race angle.

But you are right, putrid is being kind I think....

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

You can't use Nistle's Crunch, completely different circumstance...Hey Byrn beat a bunch of cows in that race, and I kinda agree that Tomcito is a crow
Bad example IMO, although I do like the winners out of a race angle.

But you are right, putrid is being kind I think....

They're ALL crows! What stellar field prep did I miss?!?

Pyro and maybe Z Fortune are the only other two horses I've seen make anything resembling a Derby winning run in this whole mess.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Nistle's Crunch totally ran off with the blinkers and would have more than ran with him if Julian hadn't resorted to a choke hold.

With Georgie Boy gone, who's run individual races even remotely as good as Big Brown?

People are playing pretend with themselves if they don't think Big Brown goes into the Derby as by far the best horse.

The reason to not like Big Brown's Derby chances is because he's a very poor fit for the race style wise.

I can't even imagine how far out there people have to be to think there is another horse who's best race is as good as his best race.
I'm very excited to bet Pyro - but he has no individual race that rates competitively with any of Big Brown's.

Im probaly gonna end up betting Pyro, as well, Im just not that excited about it.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

They're ALL crows! What stellar field prep did I miss?!?

Pyro and maybe Z Fortune are the only other two horses I've seen make anything resembling a Derby winning run in this whole mess.

ok true....I am going to watch Z Fortune's race again and see what I saw, because I forgot....I looked his breeding the other day and starting to question that a little.

I mean, someone HAD to close into that pace last time, so it might have looked better then it was....To the replay cave

[Scav]

Alright, I just watched Z Fortune's race, he got a good trip I think but I have another concern, and I really can't tell because the video is kinda choppy

Was Gayego boreing in and out, or did Z Fortune bore in at about the sixteenth pole, looks like he took a real funny step or something, or was completely tired right about there.

He did finish up pretty well though, in front of Gayego......

He is going to get a real big number from TG, 4w5w...my guess is he might get the same number at Gayego actually....

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Scav

He is going to get a real big number from TG, 4w5w...my guess is he might get the same number at Gayego actually....

Scav, dude,

if he was two paths wider than Gayego on both turns - he will have given away 4 lengths in ground on both Ragozin figures and TG figures.

He was beaten less than a length... and they both carried 122.

Whatever number the sheet makers come up with - rest assured Z Fortune's number will be a little more than 3 lengths faster than Gayego's number.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Scav, dude,

if he was two paths wider than Gayego on both turns - he will have given away 4 lengths in ground on both Ragozin figures and TG figures.

He was beaten less than a length... and they both carried 122.

Whatever number the sheet makers come up with - rest assured Z Fortune's number will be a little more than 3 lengths faster than Gayego's number.

yeah, which is the reason I rewatched it, and that means he ran real big, like probably a top in the negative range, because Gayego moved forward, and he was already close. I am probably off the horse now, especially given that he bounced off his previous top pretty bad, so what the hell is he going to do if he ran a minus number....

[whodey17]

This tells me that trainers are over paid.

[jpops757]

BBs Fla Derby was against slow horses yet one of these is the most prepared and ready to beat him. How can you justify"the sheets" that says this? the same posters that knock BB use his fla derby race to flatter Smoth Air. I guess this proves that you can use facts and distort them to mean anything you want. Kip Deville ptobably hasnt become a 100k stud but Kipling has doubled his value.

[HaloWishingwell]

Just in defense of ARAZI, don't crap on the horse. He was finished once they took him across the ocean and the finishing touch was the knee surgery at the end of his two year old year.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Scav, dude,

if he was two paths wider than Gayego on both turns - he will have given away 4 lengths in ground on both Ragozin figures and TG figures.

He was beaten less than a length... and they both carried 122.

Whatever number the sheet makers come up with - rest assured Z Fortune's number will be a little more than 3 lengths faster than Gayego's number.

Z Fortune ran farther and looks more likely to get 10f based on pedigree and running style. If a son of Gilded Time wins the Derby I may have to get out of the game.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by Linny

Z Fortune ran farther and looks more likely to get 10f based on pedigree and running style. If a son of Gilded Time wins the Derby I may have to get out of the game.

When you run your best effort to date, and need to come back in three weeks and top that, you really think this is a good sign? Can his tactical speed and late Kick over come a short rest this time?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Linny

Z Fortune ran farther and looks more likely to get 10f based on pedigree and running style. If a son of Gilded Time wins the Derby I may have to get out of the game.

Gilded Time has thrown some routers Linny, but most of them have been on the lawn, at least in my handicapping experience.

That being said, I think he reacts pretty badly in this race, ran pretty big last out

[Gander]

The thing that concerns me about Z Fortune is why couldnt he get by a tiring Gayego in the Ark Derby? He had every chance too and still couldnt even make the finish close. Hes been getting a lot of press, actually both horses are. You really think the extra furlong will make the difference?
He'll have more to deal with than just getting by Gayego.