Thorograph Derby figs

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmfhb411

someone other than me watches the NHL Network.

The what?

[Riot]

After the initial phase of establishing a base figure from the running times (+/- variant effect), there are nuances that each individual figure maker may utilize in their formulation. Weight, ground loss, wind effect, etc., can make up the 10% 'art' if you're allowing for the 90% science.

It's that 10% "art" that makes all figures, in the end, highly-educated opinions.

If a calculated number comes back that seems off in the opinion and experience of the figure maker, it's adjusted. That makes a human mind and opinion the final assessment of a performance to ensure the figures make logical sense. That is opinion (granted, an extremely experienced one).

Figure makers will even adjust previously given numbers weeks later based upon subsequent performance - so the figures within a PP fit their experienced perceptions of the quality of the previous and subsequent performances of the field.

When Jerry Brown wrote that the Derby was relatively easy to make figures for, he means that once he established a fig for the top two finishers,

As soon as the race finished, before he even looked at the figures, didn't he announce it was the best Derby figure earned by a horse, ever? Rags disagrees (I think), Beyer disagrees.

Figures are never "an educated opinion",

Guess we'll just have to disagree. I think figures are obviously always a highly educated opinion. Handicappers choose which opinion they think most accurate (TG, Sheets, Beyer, etc) and there are still guys that make their own.