Perfect Drift in 18 minutes

[stonegossard]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

when is he racing again and against what field? don't you have to know that first before saying he's a huge bet against?

I think wherever he ends up he will take dumb money. This horse has a history of burning up mountains of tickets. Now he runs an average 4th in a Grade I. When he drops down to a Grade III and goes off 9-5 there will be money to be made betting against him. There always has been when PD runs. He is a big name way way past his prime and like Lava Man is his last few, will take stupid money. Personally I hope they run him until he's 11 so I can keep betting against him.

He has been a huge bet against for the last 2 yrs..those who have , are probably extremely profitable betting against PD.

[stonegossard]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Jim you obviously haven't been reading the threads around here recently.
If you continue to suggest that one should wait until a race is drawn before you handicap it, you too will be called a "degenerate," and an "elitist," and an "a-hole."

Are trying to say that this horse hasnt been routinely overbet in his career? You might want to check out his pp's over the last few yrs. I made a HUGE score agianst him on the grass at KEE a few yrs ago. He took an incredible amount of stupid money.

In a case like PD, you really dont have to be a brain surgeaon to know he will take money....I am sorry if you cant grasp the fact that horses like him (and Lava Man) will continue to take money even though they are past their prime.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by stonegossard

I think wherever he ends up he will take dumb money. This horse has a history of burning up mountains of tickets. Now he runs an average 4th in a Grade I. When he drops down to a Grade III and goes off 9-5 there will be money to be made betting against him. There always has been when PD runs. He is a big name way way past his prime and like Lava Man is his last few, will take stupid money. Personally I hope they run him until he's 11 so I can keep betting against him.

He has been a huge bet against for the last 2 yrs..those who have , are probably extremely profitable betting against PD.

kinda like brass rat..lol

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by stonegossard

I think wherever he ends up he will take dumb money. This horse has a history of burning up mountains of tickets. Now he runs an average 4th in a Grade I. When he drops down to a Grade III and goes off 9-5 there will be money to be made betting against him. There always has been when PD runs. He is a big name way way past his prime and like Lava Man is his last few, will take stupid money. Personally I hope they run him until he's 11 so I can keep betting against him.

I don't assume that the future will be exactly like the past. don't you think there is even a remote chance that he will run better for Mandella?
how tough do you think GR III's are in California? not very tough. hell most of the GR1's are won by reformed claimers. what I saw yesterday makes me think he'll be winning races soon. we'll see.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by stonegossard

Are trying to say that this horse hasnt been routinely overbet in his career? You might want to check out his pp's over the last few yrs. I made a HUGE score agianst him on the grass at KEE a few yrs ago. He took an incredible amount of stupid money.

In a case like PD, you really dont have to be a brain surgeaon to know he will take money....I am sorry if you cant grasp the fact that horses like him (and Lava Man) will continue to take money even though they are past their prime.

We all know that Perfect Drift tends to hang, and has seemingly lacked (over the last few years) the will to win. That isn't exactly breaking news. Believe me, I have been accused of "bashing" this horse several times in the past for even mentioning these obvious facts.
Personally I have had a decent amount of success (at least by my standards) using Perfect Drift underneath in exactas and trifectas over the last few years.
Depending on what race he runs in next, he might be a good exotics add, or he might be a complete toss. I don't know that I agree with ArlJim that he'll be "winning races soon" but against the right field, with the right pace scenario, it is at least possible.
To me, the larger point is just that this horse could be running on any number of surfaces, at any number of distances, against any type of field in his next start. Those types of facts are typically helpful in determining who to bet on and who to toss.

[horseofcourse]

I have a feeling Mandella has liked what he's seen in this horse. I thought that race was an insane spot for his first out in 11 months, and it also appeared to me he ran pretty well. His run yesterday was already better than any he had last year.

[stonegossard]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

kinda like brass rat..lol

Exactly like Brass hat in his last two. I think there was one time to bet him this year...at GP. After that he was a fade. And a fade he was.

[stonegossard]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I don't assume that the future will be exactly like the past. don't you think there is even a remote chance that he will run better for Mandella?
how tough do you think GR III's are in California? not very tough. hell most of the GR1's are won by reformed claimers. what I saw yesterday makes me think he'll be winning races soon. we'll see.

If anyone can do it , it definitely is Mandella. No doubt. But this horse has a LONG history of disappointing. I just feel that from a betting standpoint he will offer no value and is a good fade.

He has faced some very suspect fields before and failed. Dont see this changing.

[stonegossard]

Originally Posted by miraja2

We all know that Perfect Drift tends to hang, and has seemingly lacked (over the last few years) the will to win. That isn't exactly breaking news. Believe me, I have been accused of "bashing" this horse several times in the past for even mentioning these obvious facts.
Personally I have had a decent amount of success (at least by my standards) using Perfect Drift underneath in exactas and trifectas over the last few years.
Depending on what race he runs in next, he might be a good exotics add, or he might be a complete toss. I don't know that I agree with ArlJim that he'll be "winning races soon" but against the right field, with the right pace scenario, it is at least possible.
To me, the larger point is just that this horse could be running on any number of surfaces, at any number of distances, against any type of field in his next start. Those types of facts are typically helpful in determining who to bet on and who to toss.

I agree with ya and most of the time of course it is nuts to throw out a horse before his next start is determined....but in PD's case I think it's safe to say he wont offer value, unless he is once again racing way over his head. He has a long history of failing.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I say this with a lot of respect for Mandella as a trainer, but how much do we expect he's going to get a 9 year old to improve? He looked like the same Perfect Drift to me yesterday. Earning checks and just not having enough. Now that I say this, he'll probably win the Hollywood Gold Cup.

That race was much better than what he did last year. He was horrid his last few starts...did you see the Califronian? You mean the two years ago version? He has already gotten a 9 year old to improve. Maybe not to 4 or 5 year old version, but much better than the 8 year old version. He stunk last year. He did not stink yesterday.

[SentToStud]

Aside from getting a speed fig, can someone please tell me what was good or promising about Perfect Drift's race? He passed a cheap fading forward running horse and Thousand Words who didn't run especially well.

To me, he just sucked along and got a little piece without contending at all.

Glad he's back and all but he didn't finish in front of much.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I disagree. I remember last year after his comebacker at Keeneland. I was called every name in the book for saying same old Perfect Drift. Well we saw how that ended up. Look, in this day and age it's great to see a horse still out there running at 9. But let's not go overboard after another lackluster finish.

He ran 4 races last year. You're picking his best one and comparing that. I'm looking at the 3 after that, and he was much better than that horse yesterday. Maybe he will repeat that pattern of running one decent race then collapsing the rest of the year.

[alysheba4]

he got routed..........turn him into a pony or show him the respect he deserves and let him live out his days on a farm.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Aside from getting a speed fig, can someone please tell me what was good or promising about Perfect Drift's race? He passed a cheap fading forward running horse and Thousand Words who didn't run especially well.

To me, he just sucked along and got a little piece without contending at all.

Glad he's back and all but he didn't finish in front of much.

In the end it is simply a glass half full/glass half empty scenario with this horse. For those encouraged you had a 9 year old horse coming off an 11 month layoff running in a spot not really his specialty...a grade 1 one mile turf race. He is now in the barn of a pretty well established top notch trainer. To those they saw this horse run less than 3 lengths behind 3 really good turf horses this year in which the winning time was a 1:33.44 mile clip. WE look at the very high quality of the horses he ran behind.

For those not imprsessed, they saw a 9 year old horse finishing 4th ahead of 3 suspect horses and surface and trainer didn't really matter much. They saw a horse who never could beat good horses...still can't beat good horses, and will only run good enough to occasionally pick up a check.

To each his own pretty much. I am simply hoping he continues to run well with Mandella the remainder of the year.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by alysheba4

he got routed..........turn him into a pony or show him the respect he deserves and let him live out his days on a farm.

Interesting concept. A non turf horse loses a grade 1 turf mile by 2 1/2 lengths (a rout) and should become a pony. I guess that's one way to fix racing...cull it to about 55 active horses. (maybe you were joking!).

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

Interesting concept. A non turf horse loses a grade 1 turf mile by 2 1/2 lengths (a rout) and should become a pony. I guess that's one way to fix racing...cull it to about 55 active horses. (maybe you were joking!).

Perfect Drift is a multiple winner on turf, his only OTB finishes I believe have been in Grade 1s (a couple of Arlington Millions and Woodford Reserves). Off of that info, he's simply not a Grade 1 horse (at least on turf). Be that as it may, there's nothing to suggest he's a synthetic horse either, unless you call finishing 2nd to Stream Cat or Ball Four on the stuff evidence to the contrary.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Scav

I agree, and he was checked late in that race on the final turn. It will be some story when he does win...

Not only did he check at the quarter pole, he was in tight that whole final quarter of a mile. He didn't really have anywhere to go that final 1/16th of a mile. I think he had at least 1-2 lengths of trouble. With a clean trip, I think he would have had a shot to run 2nd.

In addition, a mile is not his best distance and this was a very fast race. All things considered, I think he ran great.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Not only did he check at the quarter pole, he was in tight that whole final quarter of a mile. He didn't really have anywhere to go that final 1/16th of a mile. I think he had at least 1-2 lengths of trouble. With a clean trip, I think he would have had a shot to run 2nd.

In addition, a mile is not his best distance and this was a very fast race. All things considered, I think he ran great.

you seem to be one of the few that pay attention to minor details like speed. he attended the pace in a way that he hasn't done in many years. to me the improvement was striking.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Not only did he check at the quarter pole, he was in tight that whole final quarter of a mile. He didn't really have anywhere to go that final 1/16th of a mile. I think he had at least 1-2 lengths of trouble. With a clean trip, I think he would have had a shot to run 2nd.

In addition, a mile is not his best distance and this was a very fast race. All things considered, I think he ran great.

Perfect Drift did not check at any point in the race. He moved inside entering the far turn, waited briefly entering the stretch, there was plenty of room inside Mast Track straightening up and his jock angled to the rail, grinded past that rival and Espinoza appeared to stand up the final yards at best because Hyperbaric put him away for 3rd money or at worst because he didn't like what he felt late. Certainly he didn't stand up because Ever A Friend (2 lengths in front of him) was blocking his path.

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

Interesting concept. A non turf horse loses a grade 1 turf mile by 2 1/2 lengths (a rout) and should become a pony. I guess that's one way to fix racing...cull it to about 55 active horses. (maybe you were joking!).

.....yeah, im funny that way hughhh.