If anyone knows off the top of their head....

[Handicappy]

Don't have to research it. Lucas had a maiden run in the Belmont in 2005, Nolan's Cat. Finished third and I had the tri for something like $1300.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by justindew

Both Birdstone and Lemon Drop Kid's Grade I wins came at age 2.

When Tale of Ekati surges past Casino Drive in deep stretch to win, you can thank me.

IF that happens, I don't think the word surges would be accurate!

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by justindew

I just thought it was worth noting that some of the recent Belmont upsets were pulled off by horses that were the only/among the only Grade I winners in the field, besides the favorite. I'm a tad surprised that no one else finds this notworthy, but whatever.

What about Victory Gallop or Touch Gold or Colonial Affair? None were Grade 1 winners prior to the Belmont.

It's fairly obvious you are trying to make a case for Tale of Ekati, so why don't you just present your case for his chance instead of having us back into it for you?

And likening TOE with LDK and Birdstone off a single trait (a Grade 1 win) is not enough support the idea that TOE has what it takes to pull off the upset. Both LDK and Birdstone, unlike TOE, were in many ways coming into top form just prior to the Belmont. Lemon Drop Kid made a belated 3yo debut in a Gulfstream allowance, registering an easy win. His next start was the Blue Grass, were he made no impression. He started in the Derby anyways (as part of the mutual field), despite appearing on paper not to have the proper conditioning, promptly drew the extreme outside post, and proceeded to pick off tired horses to split the field in 9th. One could easily suggest in retrospect that the effort was a mere tune-up for later. LDK made another start before the Belmont, in the Peter Pan, and ran another "prep" like race, showing more speed than in the Derby, making a middle move, and then hanging the last bit to be a close 3rd to Jerkens' Best of Luck and the Phipps' Treasure Island. Whereas in the Derby, LDK had just 2 preps in him, he now had 4 leading into the Belmont (the same track where he had earned his Grade 1 at 2) where he put it all together. He held his form beyond that race, too, placing in the Jim Dandy and taking the Travers before hitting a brick wall versus his elders.

Birdstone, too, gave up a lot of short-term conditioning on the Derby trail, making a late February 3yo debut with an easy allowance win. At the time, he was the winterbook favorite for the Derby. His next start was a total disaster, coming in the Jim Beam, where the track was sealed in anticipation of a rainstorm. Birdstone ran so horrible that he went from Derby favorite to goat in one shot. He really dropped off the face of the Earth when Zito didnt bring him out for another prep prior to the Derby. In the Derby itself, Birdstone at 20-1 ran a race similar to LDK, picking off a few down the lane to split the field in 8th. Returning to the scene of his 2yo Grade 1 win (the Champagne), he fulfilled the promise many had anticipated just a few months before by taking the Belmont. Sparsely campaigned (odd for a Zito horse really), he returned to win the Travers.

TOE's road to the Derby, similarly light in races like the other two, seems to have been a bit of a rush job. Training poorly in FL, he was sent to the wolves first out in the LA Derby and got trounced. Shipped to NY, he came to hand quickly apparently, and was able to grind out the Wood win. The race, however, was unceremoniously bashed by just about everyone timewise and, visually, the horses were staggering to the wire. TOE came back in the Derby and ran a decent race to be 4th, but given his pedigree and the fact that he appeared to be in peak form at the time of the Derby (and doesn't now with that horrendous 1:18+ 6f drill), one can't really anticipate the upside the LDK or Birdstone had.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

What about Victory Gallop or Touch Gold or Colonial Affair? None were Grade 1 winners prior to the Belmont.

It's fairly obvious you are trying to make a case for Tale of Ekati, so why don't you just present your case for his chance instead of having us back into it for you?

First of all, I don't like Tale of Ekati at all. You're wrong. I like Casino Drive as the most likely horse to upset Big Brown, and I have posted that here a billion times. However, I will probably use TOE on some tickets.

I think I worded my original question poorly, because this thread, as simple as I thought it was, seems to be confusing a lot of people. My fault. Let me try again....

Birdstone: Big-price upset winner of the Belmont. One of two horses in the field with a prior Grade I win (the other being the favorite).

Lemon Drop Kid: Big-price upset winner of the Belmont. One of three horses in the field with a prior Grade I win (the other being the favorite and a filly who had never run against boys).

Empire Maker: Non-favorite winner of the Belmont. One of two horses in the field with a prior Grade I win.

I was asking people if they knew of other similar situations. Yes, I am aware that it is possible to win the Belmont without a prior Grade I win. But I am curious to know if there have been other years where a big favorite was upset by a horse at a price who happened to be the only other Grade I winner in the field. And yes, I considered 2-1 a big price on Empire Maker.

[estreetposse]

You could have just researched this by now and found your answer...how in the world does KD website allow you to post your blog on their site with some of the drivel you spew on here?

[justindew]

Originally Posted by estreetposse

You could have just researched this by now and found your answer...how in the world does KD website allow you to post your blog on their site with some of the drivel you spew on here?

I'm too lazy, and I don't care enough to do the work myself. Nor do I expect anyone else to. Thus, the title of this thread.

I'm not sure I follow your logic regarding my blog on the Derby site. Have you read my blog? If so, do you find it objectionable or not worthy of being read? If so, let me know what problems you have with it. I'm happy to listen.

And saying my unpopular opinions that I express here should somehow keep me off the Derby site also seems silly. That's like your boss firing you becuase you don't help your wife around the house.

Also, feel free to point out my "drivel", other than the stuff about the economy. I'm done with that issue.

[estreetposse]

I'm too lazy and I don't care to look up your past posts myself...

Nice signature...

[justindew]

Originally Posted by estreetposse

I'm too lazy and I don't care to look up your past posts myself

Gutless.

[hockey2315]

"With the bankroll at $74, let's swing for the fences.
$20 to win on Gayego.
$5 exacta box Gayego, Monba, and Visionaire.
$1 exacta Monba over ALL
$15 to show on Anak Nakal"

From 2007 - something to the effect of

"Hard Spun is crippled"

[justindew]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

"With the bankroll at $74, let's swing for the fences.
$20 to win on Gayego.
$5 exacta box Gayego, Monba, and Visionaire.
$1 exacta Monba over ALL
$15 to show on Anak Nakal"

From 2007 - something to the effect of

"Hard Spun is crippled"

So taking a chance at cashing a big ticket with longshots, while at the same time admitting in my blog that the race went through Big Brown, counts as drivel? Interesting.

And mentioning that a professional clocker thought that, in his professional opinion, Hard Spun looked sore also counts as drivel?

[Handicappy]

I may not have written a response in the right place but Nolan's Cat was third in the Afleet Alex Belmont. The Lucas trained 3 year old was a maiden.