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#23
06-30-2008, 10:39 PM
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#25
06-30-2008, 10:44 PM
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Thanks for this Steve!!!! ive always wondered how some on here look at races. Just from the initial posts here looks like a lot of people use the replays but i have a hard time finding them and being able to look at them and finding sites. Which one has the best "quaility" replays not grainy etc etc. im willing to pay but want to know which one is the best. I'll look at the race myself and post my thoughts as well. i like the idea of doing this with a "normal" race. ONce again thanks steve great idea!!!
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#26
06-30-2008, 10:46 PM
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This looks like a pretty non-descript NW1X allowance. In a race that looks to have a lot of speed, I'd be inclined to look for a closer, but most of those are the horses that just broke their maidens for a tag.
I generally like to avoid the horses that have disappointed in stakes when they drop down to allowance company at a shortish price, but The Darp looks like the most likely winner. Purchased for a solid (for a Proud Citizen) $130,000 as a yearling, he was obviously well regarded from the beginning of his career (broke slow from the rail in a well-bet debut against subsequent SW Eaton's Gift), and he quickly advanced through the maiden ranks. After two failed, two-turn stakes attempts at the Fair Grounds, he ran in a far stronger NW1X in his last, when defeated by the Keeneland-loving, stakes-placed St. Joe. He draws a favorable outside post and should be able to stalk the early leaders under Albarado and pounce when the real running begins. Of the likely closers, I'd probably take a shot at price with the steadily improving War Ruler. Given the typical Wilkes/Nafzger education in his career debut, he had a wide trip from an outside post in a "live" maiden race at Keeneland in his second career start (runner-up, Cherokee Artist, broke his maiden next out on Derby Day). Throw out a failed try on turf. Wilkes dropped him to $50,000 maiden claimers and added blinkers, and War Ruler responded with a strong close to win going away over next-out winner (and rival Wednesday) Niobara. If the speed collapses, he should be running late at a nice price for a trainer that has had a real strong meet. Of the others: Sinister has been running in weak starter allowances; Niobara pressed very soft fractions in a maiden claiming 7F last out and faces much tougher task from class and pace perspective; E Z Phone Home's lone win came in an off-the-turf event at Belmont last fall, and while he could hit the board, I wouldn't take a short price on a horse that figures to be part of a strong pace; Dr. Nick was outrun in return and Romans, who has not been setting the world on fire, uses Hebert, not a positive sign; Knock Out Cat has the pedigree and connections to improve but he would need to improve significantly - and at an extended sprint distance - so taking a short price is not warranted; and Siena Canyon and Fit for a Fight look like pace factors (although I could take a shot with the improving Siena Canyon off his line against recent blow-out winner I. M. Boomer).
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#27
06-30-2008, 10:50 PM
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I like War Ruler too, 3rd start on conventional dirt and 2nd with the shades. It looks like there is a lot of speed in the race and I think he could sit off it and wait for the race to fall apart.
__________________
Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!"
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#28
06-30-2008, 10:56 PM
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Quote:
 's
__________________
"I guess it comes down to a simple choice, really. Get busy livin' or get busy dyin'."
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#29
06-30-2008, 10:58 PM
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#30
06-30-2008, 11:39 PM
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#31
06-30-2008, 11:46 PM
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Kids in the Hall get the credit.
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#32
07-01-2008, 12:08 AM
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__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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#33
07-01-2008, 12:22 AM
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Heck I will give my novice opinion
Sinister - 2-2 at Churchill. 14 pt bump in speed rating from his last race. post 1 is sucking at churchill this meet. not impressed with his works. good trainer and Lep picks the 2 over this one. I dont think there will be enough pace for this horse to close into - PASS War Ruler - I like Wilkes as a trainer (29%). Cannot post back to back decent speed figs. 2nd place horse from the 5/31 race came back and won. Like the 1, will need a good pace but will not get it - PASS Coach Ryan - Amoss (40%) is having a great meet. Most consistent speed figs. Should be close to the lead and in good position since he has closers to the inside of him. Shortens up in distance which I think is a good move. Seems to be in good form. Horses from the 5/18 race have come back to do rather well - TOP PICK Niobrara - Best form of the field. 1 for 1 at the distance. Not a published work since his last race is a bit of a concern. Good speed figs the last two races. Should also get a stalking trip. Prob will get first jump, but I think that Coach Ryan will run him down. EZ Phone Home - Returns back to a sprint which should be good. Fits with this bunch at this level. Should get the lead or being extremely close. I do not think he will be able to finish - PASS Dr Nick - Well this is more personal because I lost a few dollars on him in the past. 2nd off the layoff is a good sign. Hebert gets the mount and he isnt having a good meet at all. I think the horse needs another race to show that he is healthy once again - PASS Knock Out Cat - Bridgmohan has been pretty good the past few weeks. The workouts arent that great. The pace will not be fast enough for KOC to close into. Debut was impressive, but I think the step up might be a little too much - PASS That is it for now because I am tired. But my pick is the 3 horse.
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#34
07-01-2008, 12:49 AM
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I dont see how you can have a serious opinion about this race without seeing the prices. There is no standout, some pace but no confirmed front runners, a lot of maiden breakers and a few contenders with bad work patterns. I dont like the Darp at all. He was actually a weanling purchase that looks like a pinhook gone bad seeing who the owners are. He is off of a short layoff but it the 2 races before the layoff that concern me. He seemingly has lost his tactical speed which was a key element of his in his good races. even though he was overmatched in the Risen Star he never really had anything and his next race on the cutback was dull also. Although you never really know the whole story with works, he didnt work for a month after that race.Then didnt work again for 12 more days when he went a slow 1/2. Then he has another gap in his works till June 6th. He worked on regular 7 day intervals, albeit slow for a trainer that isnt afraid to let them work strong. His pokey 104 was followed up 5 days later with a slow 3 furlng work. He is really suspect in my eyes.
Fit for a Fight also has a suspect workout pattern, not showing a work since his last race almost 3 weeks prior to this race. Michele is a brand new trainer and new trainers rarely will not work horses unless they are not 100%. She did a good job getting the horse ready off of a brief series of steady works but I'm guessing that whatever made the horse miss 11 months is still there. There isnt anything really wrong with Knock Out Cat but I am not convinced that the group that he beat is very good. Dr. Nick wasnt very good last time. Looks a lot like one of those 2 yo in training horses that are fast but burn out early. EZ Phone home is one of those overraced, cheap speed horses that I let beat me. I dont think he shakes loose on an easy lead which looks like the only way he will win at this level. Niobrara raced 3 times in 30 days, caught a soft maiden 80 and IMO will regress off of his efforts. i wonder if the improvement was due to Blinks added, lasix on or dry tracks. Maybe a bit of each? I wouldnt play him unless he was really long. the fact that he has no work doesnt bother me as much as Fit fot a fight because he was raced so hard. Coach Ryan had a perfecto last time in the short field. Obligatory improvement off the trainer change. may get a perfect trip once again. Amoss really wants to win the training title if that means anything. War ruler was closer early with the addition of blinkers. Looks like some of the other in here. price matters. I would throw Sinister underneath in exotics simply because he will be a long price and even though he isnt great he arguably fits well in here. By the way i am only up handicapping this race because my tooth is killing me and I cant sleep, so dont give my thoughts any credence.
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#35
07-01-2008, 01:07 AM
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Quote:
I soldiered through serious nerve pain in my tooth for months that would start every night when I layed down - because I didn't way to pay a dental bill. I finally gave in - and after a root canal or two - I was golden. Brand new.
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#36
07-01-2008, 01:10 AM
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Hooves had surgery via the phone last week it worked out fine. 3 kids is plenty don't you think!!
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#37
07-01-2008, 09:32 AM
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9 Fit for a Fight - on the 30 pt move up off the layoff/barn change - 3 startilingly impressive works and the strong effort 6/11 might signal a bounce to some, but he can also easily lay over this bunch - Best Value
10 The Darp - looks to me as the most logical, I don't mind the outside going 7/8ths, in fact prefer it. His two stakes efforts were commendable performances and I'll gladly toss the poly try. - Most Likely 8 Siena Canyon - Has the win going the distance over the track through some pretty honest fractions in MSW victory 5 EZ Phone Home - Zayat hanger rounds out the exotics.
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#38
07-01-2008, 10:55 AM
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pp 8 sierra c winner imo..8 hole also 18 perc..[best post] with trouble
pp 5 easy ph home show me another horse in here that backed up a no cuts back pp 2 war ruler..capt obv
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#39
07-01-2008, 11:02 AM
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Early Notes
1. Sinister, tardy start, perfect setup, up wide with hard drive Leparoux. Terrible premature ride on Cape Romain. Like that Sinister closed over the keeneland track 2back. + He actually won a race with sterling! May struggle at this class. 2. War Ruler. tossing all but last. A.Smith/Kee/Turf...6fMC <70seconds That is the way you are supposed to enter the stretch! This may be a real race horse. Something I didn't like about his left front. Very minor stride abnormality. 32 days isn't alarming, and i get the feeling that Wilkes has em' pain free, and carefully spotted (he would rest were there an issue). Works give no clues with this one and guess is that in the morning he has been starting slow and finishing with energy. win Contender 3.Coach Ryan. 2nd race under Amoss showed much improvement. Respectable time (95.54). He was much better than his opposition. Borel kind of peeked a nose in at the rail / swung 5 wide behind trafic to easily draw away when clear. I like that Borel is aboard here, and I like that he started in Special weight before the change of hands moved him up. Contender, but you get the feeling that he is simply going to run solid and not spectacular. 4.Niorbara = showed he could run half decent in the war ruler race, and then showed he could do it again next out in a slightly weaker MC. 5. EZ Phone Home - Romans can't get him right. Horse has a ton of speed and good talent. Chavez had it right- if they aren't going to train him, then get him 5 clear entering the stretch and maybe he doesn't stop breathing. LOL @ the exclamation point after "tired" in the bris PPs. wouldn't completely shock if he wins, but you want 8 or 9-1 on this guy and you probably get 9-2 or worse. 6. Dr. Nick - will have to prove he can return with same talent and overcome his problems. Dr Nick must be seeing Dr. Nick and being trained by him. dr nick rides (Hebert up). 7. Knock Out Cat= was so green in his debut. Shied away from rail opening. had to be swung out. Was still much the best. 4 works since and you get the feeling that Asmussen will have him much more relaxed off the pace. Closing today. He has the look of one of those crazy looking greys that absolutely bolt home in the stretch at 6 or 7f. Maybe he hasn't shown his real kick yet, being so green and closer to the pace than he will be today? Expect the increase in maturity but it isn't a guarantee. A mature K.O. Cat may draw off, a green one should be competitive. 8. Sienna Canyon - not a bad horse. Jockey of IamBoomer saw that Sienna Canyon was passing, so he swung out and fouled him. Trainer Baker is hot and this horse has two decent races. Sterling is a bad one, but this guy could go off long odds again and get 3rd or something. 9. Fit For A Fight- hey this bastard isn't by Fit To Fight??, speed horse, a little cheap, fell apart and was all over the lane in 1st try for Nihei/CD 10.The Darp - has sure been in a lot of races that he had no chance to do what he was asked. In the 2 races he was given a reasonable task, he was 2nk and 1st9.25. Still you have to think they were over-excited off the weak maiden company trouncing to enter in the Lecomte. After seeing where they really were and having time to reflect =Maybe they just wanted to have a horse entered in the Risenstar? but was it really Werner that thought a 2nd try at Keeneland was a good idea? He didn't know by then that 7furlongs on that poly was too much to ask? I wouldn't be surprised if this guy quits today or if he runs a "game" 3rd or 4th. Doesn't look like a win contender to me.
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#40
07-01-2008, 12:28 PM
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morning line
1Sinister (FL)8/1
2War Ruler (KY)6/1 3Coach Ryan (KY)8/1 4Niobrara (KY)10/1 5E Z Phone Home (FL)6/1 6Dr. Nick (KY)12/1 7Knock Out Cat (KY)5/1 8Siena Canyon (KY)12/1 9Fit For A Fight (KY)9/2 10The Darp (KY)7/2 GREAT ml odds. Fit for a Fight as 2nd choice is baffling.
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