Bridge jumper on Zenyatta - Page 2

The Indomitable DrugS · #21 07-06-2008, 01:09 PM

They can put up to four $250 bets on one ticket.

at 1K a ticket - it wouldn't take but two minutes to punch 100K worth of tickets on a horse.

dalakhani · #22 07-06-2008, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Never thought I'd see the day where bridgejumping was defended on Derby Trail.

Instead of closing your mind to it altogehter and dismissing it as amatuerish, wouldnt it be better to understand the logic and statistics on a particular bet first?

ELA · #23 07-06-2008, 01:30 PM

Interesting how the disucssion includes "how much" for "how little" and the validity of the logic behind such a bet.

Eric

ArlJim78 · #24 07-06-2008, 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Instead of closing your mind to it altogehter and dismissing it as amatuerish, wouldnt it be better to understand the logic and statistics on a particular bet first?

what statistics?

SentToStud · #25 07-06-2008, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

what statistics?

What logic?

dalakhani · #26 07-06-2008, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ELA

Interesting how the disucssion includes "how much" for "how little" and the validity of the logic behind such a bet.

Eric

Personally i think the risk was minimal and paid handsomely in regards to the amount of the risk.

Basically he risked 200k that a horse would not get injured for an instant 5% return that is tax free.

Granted not all bridgejumping scenarios are like this. There are plenty of odds on bets that are horrible bridge jumping plays.

But to dismiss any and all bridge jumping bets as bad is closeminded in my opinion.

The Indomitable DrugS · #27 07-06-2008, 01:49 PM

Jesus.

Bigsmc · #28 07-06-2008, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud

What logic?

What mind?

hi_im_god · #29 07-06-2008, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud

What logic?

you know. all winning bets are smart after that fact. that logic.

GPK · #30 07-06-2008, 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

you know. all winning bets are smart after that fact. that logic.

Therein lies the key to this whole thread.

SentToStud · #31 07-06-2008, 01:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

They can put up to four $250 bets on one ticket.

at 1K a ticket - it wouldn't take but two minutes to punch 100K worth of tickets on a horse.

$200,000 in $100 bills is a stack about two feet high.

I suppose you can punch the tickets, but how do you count the money in a minute, or 5 minutes?

The Indomitable DrugS · #32 07-06-2008, 01:54 PM

I've seen several VERY controversial DQ's involving bridgejumped horses over the last two years.

Someone bet over 150K to show Nicole's Dream in a small stake at Mountaineer. She won in hand by 8 or 9 in course record time but was DQ'd for a phantom call.

Proud Spell was DQ'd just last week. She needed only to beat two mediocre allowance horses.

Outcashem - who had won something like 12 races in a row - was DQ'd in a hapless starter allowance race at Timonium that led to blockbuster show payoffs.

dalakhani · #33 07-06-2008, 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

what statistics?

What is the percentage of odds on favorites that finish in the money?

What is that percentage in stakes races?

What is the percentage in races where horses are facing similar company to the last?

What is the percentage for horses racing in similar conditions (ie track, distance, company) as last?

I bet when you break all of it down, without even taking into account what type of uber talent Zenyatta has or how bad those particular horses were, that the percentage is extremely high.

The Indomitable DrugS · #34 07-06-2008, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud

$200,000 in $100 bills is a stack about two feet high.

I suppose you can punch the tickets, but how do you count the money in a minute, or 5 minutes?

I would think it would be a situation where the bettor would talk to a manager hours in advance of making the bet.

hi_im_god · #35 07-06-2008, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

What is the percentage of odds on favorites that finish in the money?

What is that percentage in stakes races?

What is the percentage in races where horses are facing similar company to the last?

What is the percentage for horses racing in similar conditions (ie track, distance, company) as last?

I bet when you break all of it down, without even taking into account what type of uber talent Zenyatta has or how bad those particular horses were, that the percentage is extremely high.

even if the horse could be projected to be itm 99/100 times that's still far less value than finding a horse you think is 3/1 to win going off at 10-1.

it's just stupid on so many levels.

dalakhani · #36 07-06-2008, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I've seen several VERY controversial DQ's involving bridgejumped horses over the last two years.

Someone bet over 150K to show Nicole's Dream in a small stake at Mountaineer. She won in hand by 8 or 9 in course record time but was DQ'd for a phantom call.

Proud Spell was DQ'd just last week. She needed only to beat two mediocre allowance horses.

Outcashem - who had won something like 12 races in a row - was DQ'd in a hapless starter allowance race at Timonium that led to blockbuster show payoffs.

No show betting in the Proud Spell race.

Outcashem...again, the race was in a bull ring at a fair that runs for about a week. Who in their right mind would bridge jump in such a situation?

I didnt see the Nicole's dream race, but I believe what you say. Its mountaineer. I live near charlestown and stuff like that happens all the time at smaller tracks (although they tend to swallow the whistle a little more at charlestown).

Again, im not saying one should make a living bridge jumping. Im just saying, they can be pretty darn good bets if you pick your spots.

ArlJim78 · #37 07-06-2008, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

What is the percentage of odds on favorites that finish in the money?

What is that percentage in stakes races?

What is the percentage in races where horses are facing similar company to the last?

What is the percentage for horses racing in similar conditions (ie track, distance, company) as last?

I bet when you break all of it down, without even taking into account what type of uber talent Zenyatta has or how bad those particular horses were, that the percentage is extremely high.

don't you need to know the answer to those questions first before taking a stand on whether or not its a wise wager?

Bigsmc · #38 07-06-2008, 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

No show betting in the Proud Spell race.

Place pool:

1 - $5,931
2 - $149,445 - Proud Spell
3 - $7,169
4 - $13,217

dalakhani · #39 07-06-2008, 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

even if the horse could be projected to be itm 99/100 times that's still far less value than finding a horse you think is 3/1 to win going off at 10-1.

it's just stupid on so many levels.

Yeah, and that is such a great bet? What are the statistics behind that bet? How often does that win? What percentage would you have to hit in order for that to be profitable for YOU? And just because your bet is a good one (and im not saying its not) what makes the bridge jumper's bet so stupid?

ateamstupid · #40 07-06-2008, 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

even if the horse could be projected to be itm 99/100 times that's still far less value than finding a horse you think is 3/1 to win going off at 10-1.

it's just stupid on so many levels.

Not to mention that the percentage of odds-on favorites that finish in the money has to be way less than 99%.