Weak Jim Dandy field

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Scav

You are obviously not familiar with the bounce theory. This horse ran HUGE last night. At the 3/5 or 4/5 he is going to be this coming weekend, he is a great play against IMO...when I say HUGE, I MEAN HUGE....I would be willing to say that horses that run as huge as he did fail about 75% to get anywhere near that number again and bounce (regardless of time between races) heavily

Huh..he was supposed to bounce in the Preakness...horses that have almost 2 and a half months off tend not to bounce....

[Scav]

A perfect example of this is that Dubai escapade filly that bounced like a superball last out at Calder, that horse had run a monster race, degressed slightly and the TOO THE MOON she went, didn't even hit the board....

Not saying he is a guarantee to bounce but from an investment angle, get your money in against him

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Huh..he was supposed to bounce in the Preakness...horses that have almost 2 and a half months off tend not to bounce....

mace, have you seen the number he ran in the Preakness?

I am telling you, it is a number that says "Don't play me again for a year"

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Scav

A perfect example of this is that Dubai horse that bounced like a superball last out at Calder, that horse had run a monster race, degressed slightly and the TOO THE MOON she went, didn't even hit the board....

Not saying he is a guarantee to bounce but from an investment angle, get your money in against him

She did not have as much time off between races....

[Scav]

She had enough going into this race, like 60 days, and 60 in between the other I think, I will have to look it up, but I am telling you, instead of exacta keys it is exacta boxes. The other thing is like they really care about the Jim Dandy, they care about the Travers, he isn't cranked fully....play against him

[Downthestretch55]

Originally Posted by Scav

A perfect example of this is that Dubai escapade filly that bounced like a superball last out at Calder, that horse had run a monster race, degressed slightly and the TOO THE MOON she went, didn't even hit the board....

Not saying he is a guarantee to bounce but from an investment angle, get your money in against him

Scav,
I remember a day at Saratoga about three or four years ago.
Every race was won by a long shot.
People were tearing their hair out cause they were playing the tote and getting it wrong every time.
You know what I mean.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Scav

mace, have you seen the number he ran in the Preakness?

I am telling you, it is a number that says "Don't play me again for a year"

yes I have, he's a developing 3yo and they gave him time off, he'll be fine...

Originally Posted by Scav

You are obviously not familiar with the bounce theory. This horse ran HUGE last night. At the 3/5 or 4/5 he is going to be this coming weekend, he is a great play against IMO...when I say HUGE, I MEAN HUGE....I would be willing to say that horses that run as huge as he did fail about 75% to get anywhere near that number again and bounce (regardless of time between races) heavily

No bounce here. In fact, I don't think he was even working too hard to win the Preakness, which is scary. That is how good he is. And I hate the Darley horses.

[2MinsToPost]

Yeah Wayne look at the late Pick 3 yesterday

Originally Posted by Downthestretch55

Scav,
I remember a day at Saratoga about three or four years ago.
Every race was won by a long shot.
People were tearing their hair out cause they were playing the tote and getting it wrong every time.
You know what I mean.

Originally Posted by Pointg5

yes I have, he's a developing 3yo and they gave him time off, he'll be fine...

Exactly. He has been off for over two months.

[Unbridled]

Originally Posted by boldruler

Exactly. He has been off for over two months.

I agree, he's had plenty of time to recover plus he's so lightly raced. He walks all over this field

[SentToStud]

I'd rather look for another race where I can get a decent price in a 10-horse field than to bet this race with a 4/5, 5/2 qnd 7/2 to choose from. Looking forward to watching though.

[Downthestretch55]

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

Yeah Wayne look at the late Pick 3 yesterday

Curt,
That's what's so interesting about Saratoga. You have people pounding chalk all day long. They never look at how the track is playing, just watch the odds on the tote board.
So when you score on a longshot, you really score.
It's called "the grave yard of champions" for a good reason.
One of the best places to make something if you bet against the favorite.

I'm not kidding about that day when longshots won every race. And the chalk got pounded right up to the 9th race.
I made money that day. Others were shaking their heads.
I learned something that day....even though you capped the whole card, so did many others. When you see favs getting beat badly in the first three races, it's not too late to readjust your strategy rather than "hanging tough".
Hope that makes sense.

Originally Posted by Scav

A perfect example of this is that Dubai escapade filly that bounced like a superball last out at Calder, that horse had run a monster race, degressed slightly and the TOO THE MOON she went, didn't even hit the board....

Not saying he is a guarantee to bounce but from an investment angle, get your money in against him

I still think DE hurt herself in that race. She didnt look well turning for home. I think we wont see her for a few months if at all.

[hockey2315]

I like Oh So Awesome and Bernardini here. . . It might be a little too short of a distance for Oh So Awesome but I think his performance in the Belmont was sneaky good. He got left at the gate and still got up for fifth. His works have been kind of strange leading up to this in my opinion. He worked 3F today I think and 7F before that. I can see the 3F as just a way to keep him loose, but 7F seems like kind of a strange distance for a work. Maybe it'll be to his advantage though. Any thoughts?

Also, the field in the Diana (G1) is tiny too. It's like the same problem with Belmont and Hollywood all over again. . .

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I still think DE hurt herself in that race. She didnt look well turning for home. I think we wont see her for a few months if at all.

Harty says she came out fine. No excuses he said but also hinted that all he could think of was she didnt like the track, but he said he didnt want to use that as an excuse because he hates when other trainers say it, if that makes any sense. SHe goes next in the Ballerina at Saratoga...

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

As of right now, I wouldnt read too much into the field sizes. What the Diana lacks in size, it makes up for in quality. The Jim Dandy is what I'd expect of a prep featuring the best three year old in teh country. Not that anyone wants to take on Bernardini with the Haskell, WV Derby, etc. just around the corner. All roads lead to the Travers, whihc should be awesome!

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May

As of right now, I wouldnt read too much into the field sizes. What the Diana lacks in size, it makes up for in quality. The Jim Dandy is what I'd expect of a prep featuring the best three year old in teh country. Not that anyone wants to take on Bernardini with the Haskell, WV Derby, etc. just around the corner. All roads lead to the Travers, whihc should be awesome!

yo dude you want the drf for the washington >
send me a message with your email

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I still think DE hurt herself in that race. She didnt look well turning for home. I think we wont see her for a few months if at all.

Dubai Escapade needs the lead and wasn't the quickest horse in that race.
I'm just saying it had more to do with pace than it did "bounce"

I haven't looked at the Jim Dandy yet but I can't imagine a pace scenerio tht would allow that plodder Hemingway's Key to get around 2 horses let alone all of them

[2 Dollar Bill]

Maybe they could put up the fences for this race...and then see who can Jump the best.. LOL...... < Just kidding>