State by State

[jwkniska]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

so like i said to kev...

if there's no way mccain wins ohio, why are the dems campaigning so hard there?

McCain will win Ohio easily, since he picked Palin. Obama's campaigning there, as he doesn't want to lose by as wide a margin as it will probably be (so that it doesn't look to the west coast, CA, OR, etc that he doesn't have a chance before their polls close... also holds true for the mountain/central time zones, whose polls close after Ohio's). That will help all the local dems in those areas, as it'll make more of their base go to the polls west of Ohio (could easily get deterred if he's already predicted the loser). Actually smart on their behalf (I hope it doesn't work!!!), as the dems want to have the congress if McCain gets elected... to try to counter him.

If Dean and the democrats think they can win OH without Hillary, they're way out of touch with reality. The republican women vote could have gone to Obama if they picked Hillary (which probably would have been enough for Obama to win about 52-48), but without a woman on the ticket, they're sunk as any of the rural areas will not vote for a black guy. I'd say McCain wins OH 55-44 (always have to throw a percent or 2 for some crazy 3rd party).

I lived in rural OH for 24 years... trust me, I know the area and their voting habits well.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

270 electoral votes needed to win it.

These 4 states are close: CO(9) OH(20) VA(13) NV(5)



I'll call the other 46 (because I can easily handle such a task.)



Pro-Obama States (TOTAL: 264 electoral votes)

PA CA DE HI MI NH OR NJ WA IA WI NM
CT MN IL ME MD MA NY RI VT...don't forget D.C.(3 ELEC. VOTES....BELIEVE IT OR NOT.)

Pro-McCain States (total:227 electoral votes...of course...the predominant thing in common is most of the states that had slavery ain't having OBAMA.)

AL AZ AR FL SD AK
GA NC ND ID IN KS MO
KY LA MS MT NE OK
SC TN UT WV WY TX



NH,AND NM could be soft,but I think Obama will take them. Florida could be soft, but I expect it's McCain's. If Florida or Ohio go for Obama, then JohnnyCat, you are dead. Funny how 2 states that are normally battleground states(Missouri,and Arkansas) aren't even close when a brotha is involved.

still a lot of racism down here, but i doubt i'm telling anyone something they don't know. they painted the picture today in the paper that this state is solidly behind mccain/palin due to the vp pick, but i doubt that's the case. altho we are a mainly democratic state, there are many who won't vote for obama based on his race, and a lot of misinformation.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by jwkniska

McCain will win Ohio easily, since he picked Palin. Obama's campaigning there, as he doesn't want to lose by as wide a margin as it will probably be (so that it doesn't look to the west coast, CA, OR, etc that he doesn't have a chance before their polls close... also holds true for the mountain/central time zones, whose polls close after Ohio's). That will help all the local dems in those areas, as it'll make more of their base go to the polls west of Ohio (could easily get deterred if he's already predicted the loser). Actually smart on their behalf (I hope it doesn't work!!!), as the dems want to have the congress if McCain gets elected... to try to counter him.

If Dean and the democrats think they can win OH without Hillary, they're way out of touch with reality. The republican women vote could have gone to Obama if they picked Hillary (which probably would have been enough for Obama to win about 52-48), but without a woman on the ticket, they're sunk as any of the rural areas will not vote for a black guy. I'd say McCain wins OH 55-44 (always have to throw a percent or 2 for some crazy 3rd party).

I lived in rural OH for 24 years... trust me, I know the area and their voting habits well.

Want to bet? Thankfully a good portion of Ohio isn't in the rural areas. McCain could win the state (and still the election) but I can't see him getting 50% of the vote and 55% is completely impossible.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Want to bet? Thankfully a good portion of Ohio isn't in the rural areas. McCain could win the state (and still the election) but I can't see him getting 50% of the vote and 55% is completely impossible.

9.4 million of the 11.5 million people in Ohio live in urban areas.
Thankfully, statistics overrule poorly devised opinion when properly researched.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Want to bet? Thankfully a good portion of Ohio isn't in the rural areas. McCain could win the state (and still the election) but I can't see him getting 50% of the vote and 55% is completely impossible.

Was about a 3% loss by Keary in Ohio in 2004. OBAMA is a better candidate, but it's one thing to make it closer, and another to win it. Cincy doesn't have the greatest race relations etc. I think much of the state is a little racist, and it's an uphill fight for Obama to actually win it. I think he might barely win Virginia(instead.) I think he will hold these states he has small leads in(like MN, AND NM, WI,) and he will then only need to win eitherColorado, Ohio, or Virginia to get the 270. Winning just Nevada would get him a tie(269-269.) I do think McCain has to win all these states, and he very well may do that.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/virginia.html

Poll after poll shows that state is virgin tight. Don't you have a Democrat running away with the senate race? This is the one state where the "Black vote" could make a difference, because it is (for sure) very close.

Yeah....Mark Warner is killing Jim Gilmore in the polls here. Gilmore (Rep) was one of the more inept Gov's in the history of the Commonwealth. Warner (Dem) suprised me and turned out to be a great leader for Virginia during his term.

All that is fine and dandy, but I still don't see Obama carrying Virginia. There is too big of a rural vote throughout the Commonwealth and many of those people are gonna have a VERY hard time punching that ticket on election day for a black man. It's the same thing when Doug Wilder (black man) was elected Gov of Virginia. Every poll from here to eternity had him with an insurmountable lead...it was a given he was gonna win. He only ended up winning by a few thousand votes. So what people tell pollsters and what ticket they end up punching when noone else is looking does not always jive.

McCain picking Palin will carry him a long way in Virginia. A woman that hunts and that has a son and nephew getting ready to be deployed to Iraq...the men and women throughout the rural areas will identify with her and cling to her as someone that will look out for things that mean the most to them. They resist change a great deal and there is not alot for them to identify with when it comes to a Ivy League black man and a pompous know it all from the Northeast.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Jim, please UPS ground me an ounce of whatever you are smoking. Thanks in advance.

not smoking anything, trust me on this. since predicting presidential elections i've only been wrong once.

[GPK]

I will be interested to see how the southeast corner of Virginia is voting, more specifically the military personnel. Every branch of the military has a huge presence down there and the local economy relies heavily upon that presence and the jobs it creates, both directly and indirectly.

[TheSpyder]

I think the Southeast is going to be pivotal as neither side has picked candates to really capture this area. VA, NC, SC, GA, FL. I have not seen the polls but whoever gets this area will win.

Still a lot of time to see changes and with little attention thus far I say it's wide open. Can't wait until the debates. I think that will settle this election and see the biggest shifts in votes.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by Danzig

still a lot of racism down here, but i doubt i'm telling anyone something they don't know. they painted the picture today in the paper that this state is solidly behind mccain/palin due to the vp pick, but i doubt that's the case. altho we are a mainly democratic state, there are many who won't vote for obama based on his race, and a lot of misinformation.

I think there is more racism down here than people realize. The rural areas of the Southeast are incredibly racist.

I agree, there are many that won't vote for Obama based on race....they just won't admit it publicly in the primary exit polls or any of the current polls. It is easy for a person to say they'd vote for him and race doesn't matter, but when they go behind that curtain, will they really pull the lever?

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

not smoking anything, trust me on this. since predicting presidential elections i've only been wrong once.

8/22 polling...hard to believe things have gotten worse for the RED team

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...college_update

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

not smoking anything, trust me on this. since predicting presidential elections i've only been wrong once.

Then you are risking a mediocre record.
I will assume you did not predict Ike, due to age concerns.
1960- Kennedy (good job it was close)
1964 -Johnson (landslide, very easy)
1968 -Nixon (easy with wallace pulling from Humphrey)
1972 - Nixon (If you missed this, your prognostication was severly retarded)
1976 - Carter (great job, very close)
1980 - Reagan (If you missed this, your prognostication was severly retarded)
1984 - Reagan (ditto)
1988 - Bush (ditto)
1992 - Clinton (you had to get this one also)
1996 - Clinton (ditto)
2000- Bush (good job)
2004 - Bush (not as good as 2000 but good)

So you are 3-1. Now you risk going 3-2 in elections that actually required
some thought. Dont do it man.



This could easily swing either way.

Look back at the electoral map.

Those states that are contested
could swing either way in the next two
months, very easily.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

I think there is more racism down here than people realize. The rural areas of the Southeast are incredibly racist.

I agree, there are many that won't vote for Obama based on race....they just won't admit it publicly in the primary exit polls or any of the current polls. It is easy for a person to say they'd vote for him and race doesn't matter, but when they go behind that curtain, will they really pull the lever?

My point I was trying to make.

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by GPK

My point I was trying to make.

It happened in NYC and it happened in Los Angeles.... Bradley Affect (or is it Effect)

Originally Posted by pgardn

Then you are risking a mediocre record.
I will assume you did not predict Ike, due to age concerns.
1960- Kennedy (good job it was close)
1964 -Johnson (landslide, very easy)
1968 -Nixon (easy with wallace pulling from Humphrey)
1972 - Nixon (If you missed this, your prognostication was severly retarded)
1976 - Carter (great job, very close)
1980 - Reagan (If you missed this, your prognostication was severly retarded)
1984 - Reagan (ditto)
1988 - Bush (ditto)
1992 - Clinton (you had to get this one also)
1996 - Clinton (ditto)
2000- Bush (good job)
2004 - Bush (not as good as 2000 but good)

So you are 3-1. Now you risk going 3-2 in elections that actually required
some thought. Dont do it man.



This could easily swing either way.

Look back at the electoral map.

Those states that are contested
could swing either way in the next two
months, very easily.

You probably did not predict Kennedy? way back...

That would make you 2-1.
Take it back.

Originally Posted by geeker2

It happened in NYC and it happened in Los Angeles.... Bradley Affect (or is it Effect)

I think its Effect...
Cause I think you used in as a noun.

Forget it. What the hell do I know about
the English language...

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

not smoking anything, trust me on this. since predicting presidential elections i've only been wrong once.

what was the one you missed?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

I think there is more racism down here than people realize. The rural areas of the Southeast are incredibly racist.

I agree, there are many that won't vote for Obama based on race....they just won't admit it publicly in the primary exit polls or any of the current polls. It is easy for a person to say they'd vote for him and race doesn't matter, but when they go behind that curtain, will they really pull the lever?

i remember people complaining about jeremiah wrights comments that there is rampant racism still in this country. i disagreed with him, as i didn't think that was the case (people tend to think everyone feels as they do, and i'm not racist)...then i go to work, and elsewhere, and listen to others who are upset. then you listen more, and they prove his point, as they are the racists he was talking about. it was shocking to me...this is the bible belt, these people go to church three times a week and listen to 'love your brother', 'god created us all in his image', and then my ex(thankfully) coworker tells me she thinks 'blacks should go to their own church, whites to theirs'. it's CRAZY!!! and scary. she also believed that bullsh!t email that made it's way all over the country that said obama was a muslim. so i had to explain to her that not everything people forwards you is TRUE. hello!!
we've come a long way, but still a ways to go. but my kids and their friends make me hopeful, as most are so much more accepting then their parents.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I laughed.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i remember people complaining about jeremiah wrights comments that there is rampant racism still in this country. i disagreed with him, as i didn't think that was the case (people tend to think everyone feels as they do, and i'm not racist)...then i go to work, and elsewhere, and listen to others who are upset. then you listen more, and they prove his point, as they are the racists he was talking about. it was shocking to me...this is the bible belt, these people go to church three times a week and listen to 'love your brother', 'god created us all in his image', and then my ex(thankfully) coworker tells me she thinks 'blacks should go to their own church, whites to theirs'. it's CRAZY!!! and scary. she also believed that bullsh!t email that made it's way all over the country that said obama was a muslim. so i had to explain to her that not everything people forwards you is TRUE. hello!!
we've come a long way, but still a ways to go. but my kids and their friends make me hopeful, as most are so much more accepting then their parents.

I had a project about an hour from where I live in a rural area. We hired some "locals" to work for us. One 18yr old kid broke his wrist, so he was on light duty and was going to help me out in the office. He came into work his first day back and as he sat down to talk to me, I noticed Nigger in 2" letters written on his cast. I threw a Sharpie at him and told him to cover it up or he didn't work for me any more. He laughed and said it was just a joke. I told him I wasn't joking. I felt sick, I was stunned. This kid actually thought he could work side by side with people (black, white, hispanic) with that crap on his cast.

Like you, I naively felt like others felt the same way as me. Not so.