Keeneland Sale

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Linny

Azeri's baby went for $7.7mil.

Several from the Courtly Dee family (mares like Aishah, Aurora, Altesse etc) including one for $1.7m, by Empire Maker.

Any Rock Hard Tens ?

[PSH]

No real surprise that the top end of the yearling market remains strong....
Just a continuation of what we saw at Saratoga in August.
The fifteen or so buyers that dominate the high end market are obviously not affected by what is going on in the real world for the rest of us folk...

So, no real need to show up at the sale until Book 3 or Book 4 this coming weekend. Hopefully, and one would suspect, with 5500 yearlings to be auctioned that there will be bargains to be found at that point in the sale onward.

PSH

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by PSH

No real surprise that the top end of the yearling market remains strong....
Just a continuation of what we saw at Saratoga in August.
The fifteen or so buyers that dominate the high end market are obviously not affected by what is going on in the real world for the rest of us folk...

So, no real need to show up at the sale until Book 3 or Book 4 this coming weekend. Hopefully, and one would suspect, with 5500 yearlings to be auctioned that there will be bargains to be found at that point in the sale onward.

PSH

Agreed..top and bottom should be about the same, but hoping to find some value in the middle

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by GBBob

Agreed..top and bottom should be about the same, but hoping to find some value in the middle

I actually think this sale is way off as compared to previous years. The number of RNA's is seemingly relatively low considering the prices are pretty soft. Several consignors told me that this was going to be way worse than they expected. I think tomorrows book may be a little stronger horses but there were not nearly as many buyers there as usual. It is a strong buyers market.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

Actually Azeri's colt was a buy back. It's the most expensive one in Keeneland sale history. http://auctions.bloodhorse.com/article/46970.htm I wanna see a picture of him. How close did they get to the reserve? They acted like he looks pretty good. Will they keep him or is this gonna be a private sale kind of deal?

I doubt were real bids on this horse. People who would bid $7.6 million would know what it was going to take to buy the horse. I dont think they had any intention of selling this horse.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I doubt were real bids on this horse. People who would bid $7.6 million would know what it was going to take to buy the horse. I dont think they had any intention of selling this horse.

I agree. You could just tell from the bidding that there wasn't a lot of play here. I wouldn't be shocked if someone said there was a live bid or two after $7m, but this very easily could have been a "valuation" play. At this level, I think there are only 2 players -- besides the owner -- maybe a third and that would be a longshot new player (think new hubby, LOL), but I doubt it.

I think, regardless of the RNA #'s, the sale will be down substantially. A boutique sale like the Spa has consignors "standing their ground" so to speak. This sale tends to have a different dynamic. With 5500 horses being sold, the "faces in the crowd" are in much more abundance. I don't know the RNA #'s yet, and I haven't looked at the first session #'s either, but I think this year's first session had less horses for sale -- maybe 10%.

Eric

[ELA]

Originally Posted by GBBob

Agreed..top and bottom should be about the same, but hoping to find some value in the middle

Everyone seemed to be concerned about the so called "bottom" and that the middle might weaken. If the top remains the same, the trickle down effect has to occur. The people in the 100 to 300 marketplace are the real buyers and that market has softened. At the Spa, you had real trouble selling horses under 100 -- strictly due to sellers expectations. That should change here.

Eric

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ELA

I agree. You could just tell from the bidding that there wasn't a lot of play here. I wouldn't be shocked if someone said there was a live bid or two after $7m, but this very easily could have been a "valuation" play. At this level, I think there are only 2 players -- besides the owner -- maybe a third and that would be a longshot new player (think new hubby, LOL), but I doubt it.

I think, regardless of the RNA #'s, the sale will be down substantially. A boutique sale like the Spa has consignors "standing their ground" so to speak. This sale tends to have a different dynamic. With 5500 horses being sold, the "faces in the crowd" are in much more abundance. I don't know the RNA #'s yet, and I haven't looked at the first session #'s either, but I think this year's first session had less horses for sale -- maybe 10%.

Eric

The final numbers were the avg was off $30k and the median stayed the same. The gross was off $11 million with far fewer sold than last year. There were lots of RNA's that would have dragged the avg down even more. I suppose one could argue that the Azeri horse could have made up a large chunk of the deficit but the guy was simply pricing his horse and trolling for a partner, i doubt there was any intention to let him go.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I actually think this sale is way off as compared to previous years. The number of RNA's is seemingly relatively low considering the prices are pretty soft. Several consignors told me that this was going to be way worse than they expected. I think tomorrows book may be a little stronger horses but there were not nearly as many buyers there as usual. It is a strong buyers market.

BTW, not sure if there were any that "slipped through the cracks" so to speak. There certainly doesn't seem to be as many buyers -- but that could also be a function of the sellers side of the market. As we know, at the Spa, there were buyers for horses under 100 -- there just weren't sellers.

Eric

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ELA

Everyone seemed to be concerned about the so called "bottom" and that the middle might weaken. If the top remains the same, the trickle down effect has to occur. The people in the 100 to 300 marketplace are the real buyers and that market has softened. At the Spa, you had real trouble selling horses under 100 -- strictly due to sellers expectations. That should change here.

Eric

It would be a boon for buyers and the trickle down effect would be that breeders have less cash to spend on stud fees and cheaper mares which could lead to lesser mares being taken out of circulation and stud fees being reduced. Which would be a positive for everyone except stallion owners.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ELA

BTW, not sure if there were any that "slipped through the cracks" so to speak. There certainly doesn't seem to be as many buyers -- but that could also be a function of the sellers side of the market. As we know, at the Spa, there were buyers for horses under 100 -- there just weren't sellers.

Eric

Only fools like me hover around on the first day looking for horses in book 1 that are less than 100k and have both lungs still intact..

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The final numbers were the avg was off $30k and the median stayed the same. The gross was off $11 million with far fewer sold than last year. There were lots of RNA's that would have dragged the avg down even more. I suppose one could argue that the Azeri horse could have made up a large chunk of the deficit but the guy was simply pricing his horse and trolling for a partner, i doubt there was any intention to let him go.

Median means little to nothing here. $11m is a big # to be off, but how many is far fewer? If we are talking about 10 to 20 horses, than it's a huge # perhaps. I guess it depends on who is looking at it and how you are looking at it.

I agree that the the RNA's would bring the # down and yes, the arguement could be made that the Azeri yearling could have been a "large chunk" -- but in reality it is not. There was no seller so the final # is the final #. It couldn't have been that large a chunk based upon his expectation, want price, etc. It could only be based upon what the last live bid was at.

Thanks for the comments.

Eric

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Only fools like me hover around on the first day looking for horses in book 1 that are less than 100k and have both lungs still intact..

LOL. The slipped through the crack horse(s) might not be under a 100, LOL. Who knows? We can all talk about it next year at the Spa.

Eric

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ELA

LOL. The slipped through the crack horse(s) might not be under a 100, LOL. Who knows? We can all talk about it next year at the Spa.

Eric

If we all survive till then!!!

[Cannon Shell]

Foreign buyers purchased roughly 1/3rd of the ones sold by my unofficial count.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by philcski

I'd like to know the culprit on this naming:

0005 DB/BR.F. Ghostzapper -- Oh Nellie Morning Wood Farm 185,000
Four Star Sales, Agent
I laughed.

That's Baffert

[Riot]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I dont think they had any intention of selling this horse.

Ditto - and isn't that bull? He said the last live bid was 7.5 mil, he went 7.7, but the colt is described as an RNA? And he is working on "partners" so he can be part of racing him?

Bah.

And I just realized Keeneland wouldn't care, as don't they still get their commission?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Riot

Ditto - and isn't that bull? He said the last live bid was 7.5 mil, he went 7.7, but the colt is described as an RNA? And he is working on "partners" so he can be part of racing him?

Bah.

And I just realized Keeneland wouldn't care, as don't they still get their commission?

yeah there was a "mystery" buyer at $7.5 million. Sure there was... Keeneland does get a commission though I'm sure they will take a less than usual considering the circumstances

[ELA]

BTW, interestingly enough, according to reports -- the RNA's were up from 24% to 29%.

Eric