Zito: Commentator passing BC; Targets '09 season

[SniperSB23]

Lava Man was very good for a 2 race stretch in '05 and then was nowhere in Commentator's league. He lucked out with one of the weakest handicap divisions in California history. I still fully believe that were Lava Man the one with balls instead of Borrego, that Borrego would have won every single race that Lava Man won after his retirement. And no one is going to confuse Borrego with Commentator.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Lava Man was very good for a 2 race stretch in '05

It was actually a 3 race stretch - and it was clearly one of the best 3 consecutive race stretches by any horse this decade. It was from June to Aug of '05

* 116 Beyer win in Gr 2 Californian

* 120 Beyer win in Gr 1 Hollywood Gold Cup. Winning by 8.75 lengths in 1:59.60

* 112 Beyer defeat in the Pacific Classic - missing by less than a length after hooking up with Surf Cat head to head through an insane 45 and change half mile. Lava Man was vanned off after that race ... in what really was an under appreciated performance.

I do agree though - he was never really as good before or after those 3 straight races.

[cakes44]

Somewhat off topic, but who was the last horse Zito sent to California for anything?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

It was actually a 3 race stretch - and it was clearly one of the best 3 consecutive race stretches by any horse this decade. It was from June to Aug of '05

* 116 Beyer win in Gr 2 Californian

* 120 Beyer win in Gr 1 Hollywood Gold Cup. Winning by 8.75 lengths in 1:59.60

* 112 Beyer defeat in the Pacific Classic - missing by less than a length after hooking up with Surf Cat head to head through an insane 45 and change half mile. Lava Man was vanned off after that race ... in what really was an under appreciated performance.

I do agree though - he was never really as good before or after those 3 straight races.

I originally called it a three race stretch but changed it to two in hopes that someone would correct me and I'd have ammo for the Borrego argument since Borrego beat Lava Man during his peak.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Aren't you clever.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm honestly confused.....which isn't in which one's league? I assume you mean Lava Man, as he was defeating Big Booster and Commentator was defeating future HOY Saint Liam and drowned Student Council who won last year's Pacific Classic.

Now, I don't think that's totally fair, as on his homecourt, Lava Man was vary good. But on raw talent? It's probably not that close.

That's pretty much how I meant it. However, I don't really see that horse being anything special, homecourt or not (lava man). He was lucky enough to be running in an era of historically bad older horses. If he'd have been running against horses from the mid 90s, he'd probably have been an allowance horse at best.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Anybody that thinks Nick wouldn't like to take a shot in the BC Classic with Commentator isn't really thinking. What trainer wouldn't take a shot with a horse under 10:1 in a $5 Million race that could well earn his horse Horse of the Year with a victory?

The simple fact is he needs real time between his races to do his best running and the BC comes a little too soon for Commentator. Obviously, polytrack and California are part of the equation, but even with all that, if this horse was absolutely prepared he would be going. His connections are well aware of what's at stake.

I guess then the Mass Handicap "America's Race" or Suffolk Downs "the birth place of CHAMPIONS" precluded the 5 million dollar race? Explain not running in an earlier dated/carded stake and heading to BCC if Zito knows the horse needs 120 days between starts?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I don't get it.

If the BC was the ultimate aim, why 'risk' running in SUF if the horse needs extra time between races?

And, given the EASY time of it he had at SUF, why the extra time to recover?
Here's a case where a horse (physically) bounced.

Apparently the horses is as sound as I am sober.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I guess then the Mass Handicap "America's Race" or Suffolk Downs "the birth place of CHAMPIONS" precluded the 5 million dollar race? Explain not running in an earlier dated/carded stake and heading to BCC if Zito knows the horse needs 120 days between starts?

I'm confused Freddy....he ran Commentator in the Mass Cap because it was exactly seven weeks after the Whitney. That was how long he felt the horse needed......he would not have been ready for a race at an earlier date. He's a gelding, so winning a Graded race isn't of real importance, and the Mass Cap was a perfect spot ( hard to argue with that in result ). Now the BC is six weeks from that race and he feels the horse needs more time.

What am I missing?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm confused Freddy....he ran Commentator in the Mass Cap because it was exactly seven weeks after the Whitney. That was how long he felt the horse needed......he would not have been ready for a race at an earlier date. He's a gelding, so winning a Graded race isn't of real importance, and the Mass Cap was a perfect spot ( hard to argue with that in result ). Now the BC is six weeks from that race and he feels the horse needs more time.

What am I missing?

12 drinks?

[smuthg]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

* 112 Beyer defeat in the Pacific Classic - missing by less than a length after hooking up with Surf Cat head to head through an insane 45 and change half mile. Lava Man was vanned off after that race ... in what really was an under appreciated performance.

That race alone was enough to make me a Lava Man fan... but, Commentator, when right, is as good as anyone this decade, especially at 9 furlongs.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Lava Man has Commentator 7-to-2 in Grade 1 wins. He's won Gr 1's on dirt, turf, and synthetic. He's also got a big figure (120 Beyer) that came without a dreamy trip when he won the Hollywood Gold Cup by 9 lengths with next out Pacific Classic and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Borrego checking in 2nd.

But he's also a horse who stuggled mightily as a claimer prior to Doug O' Neill claiming him - and with O'Neill - he failed in a miserable way all five times he ran outside of California.

Commentator currently has lost 6 of his last 8 Graded Stake attempts - is markedly less effective when pressured early - and needs a bunch of time between starts.

Commentator is obviously in the same league as Lava Man. He doesn't match up as well on accomplishments though ... but he remains sharp and carefully managed while LM is retired.

Both of them did the bulk of their damage at a time when the quality of racing was at it's lowest. I'd say they are pretty even - and both a little overrated.

Thats pretty much what I was getting at. I respect both horses but think their success was a combination of circumstance and incredible timing.

I dont think the switch to synthetic helped Lava Man at all.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by smuthg

That race alone was enough to make me a Lava Man fan... but, Commentator, when right, is as good as anyone this decade, especially at 9 furlongs.

I honestly dont know the answer to this, but who is the best horse Commentator has beaten?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

By when right - I assume you mean when loose on the lead.

Clearly Commentator's best lifetime performance saw him desperate to hold off Saint Liam at 9fs - and Saint Liam was one of the lowest rated HOY's this decade in my opinion.

He's a 3 time Graded Stakes winner in his entire career - and his best race is nowhere near a Ghostzapper or Candy Ride's best race.

Commentator's talent at best is on par with a horse like Medeglia D' Oro - and he was nowhere near as consistant as MDO.

[KirisClown]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Somewhat off topic, but who was the last horse Zito sent to California for anything?

That's a good question.. Id love to know the answer to it...

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I honestly dont know the answer to this, but who is the best horse Commentator has beaten?

St. Liam

Horse of the year St Liam and should have beat him twice.

He has also beat Student Council, Grasshopper and First Defense.... One could argue that the top 4-5 horses Commentator has ever beat are clearly better then anything Big Brown has ever defeated.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Commentator's talent at best is on par with a horse like Medeglia D' Oro - and he was nowhere near as consistant as MDO.

I agree on the pure talent part, but at the same time I can't imagine any situation where MDO wouldn't punish Commentator at 9f and up. If MDO were running today, he would look like Spectacular Bid with the competition in the older horse division.

Drugs, your post does a very good job of putting today's horses into perspective.

[smuthg]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I honestly dont know the answer to this, but who is the best horse Commentator has beaten?

I'd go with St. Liam also, but, and I honestly don't know the answer, but has anyone other than Ghostzapper run a faster Beyer figure than Commentator since 2000?