Thorograph's Promo: Race of the Week-Spectacular Bid

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

If any of you TG people want to pick a "race of the day", this week and explain what you see I would be down with that. Thanks for everyone's help!

Sheets are a very lazy handicapping method and frankly shouldnt even be considered handicapping. Sheets are a tool that one could use to help the process.Once they become the process they are exposed as the lazy man's cliff notes. Read the book then after you have read it the cheat sheets make more sense!

[phystech]

Originally Posted by Scav

Big Megilla: No idea who Sydney Dutrow is but obviously someone related to Dicky. See the horse as slow unless Sydney has better stuff then Dicky
IMO

FWIW - Sydney Dutrow, aka Chip, is Ricky's younger brother. He works for Rick.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by phystech

FWIW - Sydney Dutrow, aka Chip, is Ricky's younger brother. He works for Rick.

Already? He most recently had been working for Tony and then late last month he decided to go on his own (again). He started out with two horses that Frankel gave him (I think Frankel owned them as well), and had a few more on the way.

Eric

[phystech]

My info was second, or third hand. You may have more up-to-date info than I do.....

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Tom,

In the world of handicapping using Thoro-Graph, Collooney County sticks out as an include in the 4th because he is sporting very close to the notorious "0-2-X" pattern. 0-2-X is a pattern read originally noted by TG's Julian Weinberg 20 years ago that suggests that a horse that runs a big isolated top (like a "0"), regularly regresses to a slight off performance in their next start (like a "2"), before falling apart in the third start of the cycle (an "X", perhaps a a number like a "12" or "15").

These horses then typically will come back to the original performance level with some rest. Because the horse in question, like a Collooney County, looks like he's a bum going in the wrong direction, these runners are frequently outrageously good bets and are the scores that I watch Jerry Brown, Alan Benewitz, Weinbrg and Bill Spillane regularly cash at Saratoga at the Carolina Barbecue each summer.

Collooney County ran a 14.5 in the 10/2 Belmont sprint off the layoff (our "0"), followed by the 17.25 on 11/6 in the Belmont turf route (our "2"), followed by the 24.5 in the 11/23 Aqueduct sprint (our "X"). If worried about fitness, he had a slow 5f work 12/6, just 13 days after his last race, and then a fast half mile blow 10 days later. Looks OK... And on top of everything else, he's the only runner here dropping from MSW company to a low maiden claiming price... only the game's most potent dropdown.

The 14.5 makes Collooney County as fast as anyone in the race except Living Out a Dream (top of 11.75 last out). If he snaps back in classic 0-2-X fashion returning to around the 14, he can hit the board and juice the exotics. If the other, more obvious players faulter, he has a modest shot to win with that level of effort, (and an even better shot to win with a new 'top').

He's not a certainty to win or even hit the board, but as a potential $20-$30 mutuel, he is an ideal and significant representation of the kind of horse/situation/pattern that is a wagering opportunity presented when using TG.

G/L today!

Steve, isn't R Clear Victory a perfect example of this designated 0-2-x pattern?? (8th race at AQ Sunday)
However, TG stats only give him a 3% chance to run a top. Thanks!!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Steve, isn't R Clear Victory a perfect example of this designated 0-2-x pattern?? (8th race at AQ Sunday)
However, TG stats only give him a 3% chance to run a top. Thanks!!

V/J,

Absolutely.. R Clear Victory ran the 0.50, the 2.5 and the 7.0. Has had nearly 6 weeks and should return to near his top. But look at Mor Chances for the example of the 0-2-X followed by the return to the top... New top of 3 (in slop); regression to 5.25; bounces to 10.5 (complicated slightly by race being on grass where he's not as strong); returns to the top of 3 on 6 weeks rest at bonus mutuel of 7-1.

Back to R Clear Victory though... Recognize that the 'Thoro-Pattern' is the universe of horses in the database that have been in a similar circumstance as R Clear Victory:

570 starts in Nov-Jan where a horse 5yo or older was coming into a race off a similar pattern: Top-Off-X.

3% (New Top); 16% (Pair Up); 28% (Off Effort); 54% (X's)

Yes, only 3% got a new top.. But think about this.. would you expect most 5yo's to be consistantly running new tops the way you might expect a healthy, upswinging 3yo to run one? At the same time, note Victory Gallop's Sire Index for 5+. It's the best figure average for him. Overall? 11.75. But 5+? 9.75! Victory Gallop progeny are still improving as older horses, and R Clear Victory's entire campaign as a 5yo supports that.

This is a very sound horse. Note how even when he reacts to efforts (the 15 in 12/07, the 8.5 in 2/08, the 6.75 in 7/08) he snaps right back to pair up. And note how tight the progression line is for him. The 3% new top makes a lot of sense here (late season universe of Nov.-Jan. for older horses) given how R Clear Victory has already set 3 new tops during this season:

4.50/4.75 in Jan/Feb
2.5 in April
0.5 in August

It would appear that R Clear Victory is more likely in this particular case to project to the more reasonable 2.5 range than all the way back to the top. After all, while he's only 3% likely to run better than the 0.5 top, he's 44% likely to Pair Up or go Off, which is a range of about 0.5-4.

Asmussen would do well to give him a nice winter break of 60-75 days after this race as he's had a great year and could repeat it in '09 with a deserved rest. Very interesting horse to look at and a fascinating race too... Have to look at the rest, but at a glance, and without the PP's or ML, one horse that may be a price play in there is Almighty Silver.

[VOL JACK]

Thanks Steve, I also like Almighty Silver at a price. I've just always liked RCV because he is such a honest horse, and this looks like a time to catch him at a price. Great betting race!

[Pedigree Ann]

R Clear Victory looked good winning at $23.80. Maybe there is something in this gobbledegook after all.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

R Clear Victory looked good winning at $23.80. Maybe there is something in this gobbledegook after all.

Yes he did, both Assmu winners @ AQ helped my bankroll for the start of Gulfstream.
That was a difficult post position to overcome for RCV, (but helped his price) and Stewy Elliott did a good job working out a trip.

[sumitas]

my immediate impression of the race shapes are that brisnet covers that in their pp when they denote the horse's running style . E, EP, P, S. i have always liked the quik sheets to view the horse's race pattern . i focus on that . ideally, comparing the quik sheets to the brisnet pp is the best way to go for those big days . those t-graphs are pricey.

[Kasept]

Thoro-Graph Race of the Week is the Spectacular Bid:
http://www.thorograph.com/ROTW/20090...px0103r_09.pdf

This gives you a written analysis weekly of a stakes race with full page style TG sheet of each horse and the abbreviated style. The comments, usually done by TG's Alan Benewitz, will help novices understand the concept of pattern recognition.

We can discuss the ROTW here weekly if people are interested...

[TheSpyder]

Now I understand why you're up at 4am. Just kidding, very interesting stuff and a lot of it.

What does a square on the running line mean instead of a number? Could not find that info?

Thanks Steve.

Spyder

Originally Posted by Kasept

Thoro-Graph Race of the Week is the Spectacular Bid:
http://www.thorograph.com/ROTW/20090...px0103r_09.pdf

This gives you a written analysis weekly of a stakes race with full page style TG sheet of each horse and the abbreviated style. The comments, usually done by TG's Alan Benewitz, will help novices understand the concept of pattern recognition.

We can discuss the ROTW here weekly if people are interested...

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by TheSpyder

Now I understand why you're up at 4am. Just kidding, very interesting stuff and a lot of it.

What does a square on the running line mean instead of a number? Could not find that info?

Thanks Steve.

Spyder

Spydee,

The box/square means not enough info is available to make a figure.. Frequently seen with 2yo's or from days where there were significant changes in the track. Rather than publish a potentially inaccurate fig, TG will wait until some horses run back from a race to get a better read on what the number should be from the inconclusive race.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Thoro-Graph Race of the Week is the Spectacular Bid:
http://www.thorograph.com/ROTW/20090...px0103r_09.pdf

This gives you a written analysis weekly of a stakes race with full page style TG sheet of each horse and the abbreviated style. The comments, usually done by TG's Alan Benewitz, will help novices understand the concept of pattern recognition.

We can discuss the ROTW here weekly if people are interested...

One thing I really like about Thorograph is I can see when a horse might be set up to run a new top big race, and with 2yo's and newly turned 3yo's that's much more important than with older horses. Silent Valor is NOT that horse at 2-1 and worth a bet against. His consistent 6-7's look like a horse that just isn't that fast and has limited upside. It's going to take better than a 5 or 6 that he figures to run to win this race.

You Luckie Mann has certainly run races that would win here but it concerns me that he regressed significantly going 7f with no apparent excuse versus his big figs at 5.5f. Again, not a runner I'd take a short price on, but a must use in multirace bets.

I like Jazzandthemagician at 6-1 or higher, which I expect him to be. His paired 9's aren't fast enough obviously, but the sprint-route pair then back to sprint with young horses is a pattern I've noticed often produces a top result. Plus, given the time off and some nice works he could jump up at a price. To be clear, I'm not big on the patterns in general.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Spydee,

The box/square means not enough info is available to make a figure.. Frequently seen with 2yo's or from days where there were significant changes in the track. Rather than publish a potentially inaccurate fig, TG will wait until some horses run back from a race to get a better read on what the number should be from the inconclusive race.

hard to believe that Rampillions first race still doesnt have a number

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by sumitas

my immediate impression of the race shapes are that brisnet covers that in their pp when they denote the horse's running style . E, EP, P, S. i have always liked the quik sheets to view the horse's race pattern . i focus on that . ideally, comparing the quik sheets to the brisnet pp is the best way to go for those big days . those t-graphs are pricey.

I use Bris PPs also, but I don't trust their assignment of styles with E, etc because they never seem to re-assess. So often if a horse goes up with with the leaders on a slow pace (especially if in its debut), it can get an E assignment, even if it runs from mid-pack in its next 15 races. And some horses who sit behing the pace in sprints (P) can become a front-runner around two turns. After I analyse the horses individually, I use the pace figures to try to find out who will run where during the race. See if there is lone speed or if a 'ton o' speed' melt-down is likely.