Thoughts on Dunkirk's first race this year?

[eajinabi]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Because you never freaking said he was going to win a stakes, so why on earth would you deem it necessary to fellate yourself if he does?

Oh Brother. We will take a wait and see approach.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Obviously the only thing anyone should be talking about regarding the MSW race Dunkirk came out of is the extreme fast pace.

I had the pace 25 points faster than the final time - so a 102-77 if you want to use the Beyer #.

In those rare extreme races like that - you obviously want to upgrade the performances by the horses who showed speed on the killer pace - and you want them either cutting back or coming back at 7f in a paceless race.

You certainly want to run away from horses like Dunkirk - who was basically staggering home - but opening up big because everyone else was stopping badly.

Pletcher is historically much better 2nd time than 1st with debuters at GP ... but Dunkirk's performance was extremely unimpressive and worse than looked.

If anyone wants to go gaga over a debuter on that card - go look at Indy's Sonata's debut win!!

While 3/5ths slower than Dunkirk's - keep the following in mind

* She is a filly, he is a colt

* She is trained by Mike Matz - who had lost 77 consecutive dirt races with FTS prior to her win. He is trained by Pletcher - who may not always fully crank them for a debut - but he has them ready.

* She had a trip - broke inward and hit the gate - rushed up from last to first in a blink of an eye. He had a pace meltdown in front of him.

Also - look at Golden Sonata's pedigree. She is by A. P. Indy, the sports best stamina sire. Her dam broke her maiden at 12 furlongs in Europe - and once won a Graded Stake in North America by closing from more than 20 lengths out of it after a half mile. She has an ultimate endurance pedigree.

I haven't been that impressed with a horse who ran a Beyer in the 60's in a very long time. Too bad the field she beat sucked - and she couldn't have caught a loaded field to camofluage her for next time out.

Let's just keep it simple and look at the splits for the two horses

the filly:

23.48 23.07 25.63 13.49

the colt:

22.93 22.95 26.57 12.55

If one were to ground his analysis on TIME, as you surely are, then one would 'notice' that the filly basically walked early and SHE was the one 'staggering' late. So while the fact that she dropped the other pacesetters appears impressive, it was the off the pacers in her race that got the worst of it.

And, while the colt ran a very slow 3rd split, he accelerated (projected) the last 1/8th. While the pacesetters in his race got the worst of it, there were others in a similar position to his that could've picked it up late. BUT, they were 'wiped out' as well.

Not saying I want him back but I certainly wouldn't get too excited about her.

[NTamm1215]

Dunkirk is in on Thursday at Gulfstream.

8th (4:42)

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Allowance | Purse: $42,000

Post # Horse Jockey Weight Claim Price Equip. Med.
1 More Than Willing Desormeaux K J 122 L
2 Warrior's Reward Borel C H 122 FTL
3 Jet Set Vinny Trujillo E 120 L
4 They're Late Bravo J 120 L
5 Alma d'Oro Prado E S 122 L
6 American Dance Lezcano J 120 L
7 Sincero Leparoux J R 120 L
8 Dunkirk Gomez G K 120 L
9 Stately Character Garcia Alan 120 L
10 Saint Reade McAleney J S 120 L


Gomez coming east for the mount.

NT

[Linny]

That looks like a decent race. Alma d'Oro was a nice winner thought the horse he beat (Dubinsky) didn't impress next out. Warrior's Reward won the "Nicanor" race from further back than any horse on the dirt that day, not that he closed from far back, but... That might have been Dubinsky's next.
More Than Willing looked good but McPeek's 3yo's have hit a wall. American Dance is a 1/2 to St Liam and could improve with time.
Nice race.

Doesn't seem like it's worth the risk to fly east for that. Afterall these planes are dropping like flies.

[Bobby Fischer]

Dunkirk was lugging in a little bit even with the left hand whip, actually looked better to me on the replay tonight than I remember from the 24th. For a $3.7 yearling he was not at all impressive in the paddock. No negative signs that i noticed, he just wasn't a bo jackson oozing with athletic talent. Amazing how being much the best in the stretch can make you look a little bigger and more talented. Will be fun to watch this race. At 9 furlongs he could be even better and draw off from these.

Stately Character is kind of fun horse for me. I remember going into the HolyBull that he had improved or maintained position(order) at every call. Don't see any reason for him to improve much, maybe he is a single for 4th in the super

[tiznowthegreat]

Extremely nice race for a Thursday. Quite a few in here with potential that I could see making an impact on the derby trail. Really looking forward to seeing American Dance.

[eajinabi]

DENVER is running saturday at GP going 1 mile MSW.
Worked out in tandem with Dunkirk prior to thier FTS and had identical workout times. Not sure if that makes a difference but Dunkirk did win his first two races if its any indication. He is 12/1 ML and Velasquez has the mount. Lets see.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by eajinabi

DENVER is running saturday at GP going 1 mile MSW.
Worked out in tandem with Dunkirk prior to thier FTS and had identical workout times. Not sure if that makes a difference but Dunkirk did win his first two races if its any indication. He is 12/1 ML and Velasquez has the mount. Lets see.

Not that this is necessarily the case, but often the workmates are slower horses, and it would hardly surprise me if this horse was ridden hard, as a target for Dunkirk, while Dunkirk wasn't used as much.

I'm not saying this is the case but this is a major reason just finding workmates, without seeing the works, is a deceptive handicapping angle.

[eajinabi]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Not that this is necessarily the case, but often the workmates are slower horses, and it would hardly surprise me if this horse was ridden hard, as a target for Dunkirk, while Dunkirk wasn't used as much.

I'm not saying this is the case but this is a major reason just finding workmates, without seeing the works, is a deceptive handicapping angle.

That does make sense but DENVER is probably one of those horses that breaks slow and makes one final run which makes me think he is not suited for sprints but for routes.

[eajinabi]

Matter of fact 2nd,3rd,4th,5th place finishers behind Dunkirk in his MSW victory runs tommorow in the 6th and 10th race