Weekend Beyers (Genl Qrtrs 95; Papa Clem 101)

[NTamm1215]

Rosier was the one from the HBO special.

Tim Ice also went out on his own at Louisiana Downs last May/June and began very slowly while training mostly claimers. He has clearly stepped up his game in 2009 winning at a 18% clip.

NT

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Ok so if Spectacular Bid beat Seattle Slew and Affirmed on dirt then Seattle Slew and Affirmed went on to win grass races, you wouldn't give Bid a longer look in his grass debut?

Nobody is saying it's any kind of certainty that Pioneer will handle the dirt. I have no clue whatsoever. Let me ask you how big of a part does class handicapping play when you are looking at a race? For example, let's say Rail Trip went out and beat Commentator in the Met Mile in his next race then they decide to put him on grass for his next start. I don't know how Rail Trip will handle the grass but I do know that he's a good horse to beat Commentator. Perhaps Papa Clem and IWR both suck on synthetics and are 8-10 lengths better on dirt. Entirely possible. Same could be true of Pioneer. I'm just saying that while the synthetics can mute the form of some horses and raise the form of others, it's USUALLY not going to make bad horses beat good horses. I just think that it's not a negative that he beat them and it's not meaningless. It can only be a plus. How big of one is what's to be determined.

no

i think my biggest problem about synthetics is most of those cali horses won't ever get a shot to run on anything else. maybe none of them really like it-but someone has to win, finish second, etc.

take the big cap-einstein was the class of the field, but since he had prior turf form, i thought he would be able to handle the surface and the competition-which turned out to be the case.

then you have a horse like sulamani-seemingly the class of the field. but the distance wasn't his best, and he didn't care for firm turf. he ran third in the arlington million, but moved up when stevens' horse veered out af the finish. but all of those factors combined were too much for the horse to overcome.

we've all seen a good horse who detested a surface overcome everything and manage to win. but i think far more often, you have a horse with proven ability on one surface who just can't get it done on another. curlin proved able only to win on dirt. he hit the board in his attempts on other surfaces-a testament to his ability i'm sure. but i think wagering wise, i'd take a horse proven vs competition and proven to be good on a surface over one who has never run on-especially if it's the derby.

also, keep in mind that every horse dapples out, works well and looks great-best shape ever! when leading up to the derby.

pioneer may end up doing just fine at churchill-but i'll take a horse that doesn't have more questions than answers.

[randallscott35]

I agree with Steve on POTN. Just b/c other Cal horses have done well on the real thing doesn't mean anything about how he will do on it...I will be playing against POTN more as a hunch than anything else.

[Hoist Her Flag]

And I will play against Quality Road because of the "surface" he ran on.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Hoist Her Flag

And I will play against Quality Road because of the "surface" he ran on.

care to expand on your own opinion with facts or just follow blindly behind what one ranting, disappointed trainer had to say in the heat of the moment?

[Hoist Her Flag]

My Opinion is not based on The Robot at all. I watched every race at Gulfstream this meet. I have also watched every race at Santa Anita this meet. I'm not fooled by all those "closers" at Santa Anita like Evita, Stardom, Pioneer, and many other horses who were ridicously in last place half way down the stretch and found a way to win. No other track in the country can you do that! The move that Just Ben made in that first race that day a huge move to open up a quick 3 length lead and then hold on to the victory told me something was up. No I do not believe that Big Drama is that game of a horse, I also think the Quality Road race was a 2 horse race. Dunkirk did his think from behind and Q. Road got a paid workout. I will bet 2 horses 2 win in the Derby. One of them will not be Quality Road.

[slotdirt]

If Curlin had kept on turf, I'd bet dollars to doughnuts he would have won a GI race in the United States before he ended his career last year.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Kasept

This continues to be the most bizarre conclusion being drawn and totally indefensible. The results of different animals on a different surface has no influence on what should be expected from Pioneerof the Nile when he goes to that different surface. The factors are unrelated.

The performances don't even flatter POTN as a synthetic surface performer because all we can conclude is that Papa Clem and I Want Revenge may be less competitive on sythetic. Their efforts simply cannot be a precursor of what POTN himself will do on dirt. Why is this so difficult for people to grasp? He may move up. He may be the same. He may be worse. We won't know until he runs a race or two on dirt.

Not 100% sure this isn't a bit to black and white..While I certainly agree with most of this, you do have to give POTN a few class points.. This was the party line on Zenyatta as well until she won the Apple Blossum.. I am thinking we are all dissing POTN to much and although many don't want ANY part of him I am thinking he is at least 4th choice.. I think his last is a pretty good indication he has some class. That was a horror show and weird trip and although he was not in any MOTO trouble he certainly was way out of his desired element.. The problem is he will be overbet because of Baffert and his record in the Derby.. At 10 to 1 or better he would certainly be betable

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

If Curlin had kept on turf, I'd bet dollars to doughnuts he would have won a GI race in the United States before he ended his career last year.

So did Good Reward... The grass stock in the states especially the handicap division SUX

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Hoist Her Flag

My Opinion is not based on The Robot at all.

"The Robot"... That's great.






I laughed.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Hoist Her Flag

My Opinion is not based on The Robot at all. I watched every race at Gulfstream this meet. I have also watched every race at Santa Anita this meet. I'm not fooled by all those "closers" at Santa Anita like Evita, Stardom, Pioneer, and many other horses who were ridicously in last place half way down the stretch and found a way to win. No other track in the country can you do that! The move that Just Ben made in that first race that day a huge move to open up a quick 3 length lead and then hold on to the victory told me something was up. No I do not believe that Big Drama is that game of a horse, I also think the Quality Road race was a 2 horse race. Dunkirk did his think from behind and Q. Road got a paid workout. I will bet 2 horses 2 win in the Derby. One of them will not be Quality Road.

I have no probs with the opinion of standing against Quality Road if you do so. However, the explanation that GP was strongly speed biased based on how a 3/2 shot who was 4-5 lengths better than his field on paper won easily in the first is flimsy at best.

One horse paid more than $10 on Fl Derby day ($10.20 2nd choice in the Nicanor race.) You will see this phenomenon a lot on the Aqu IDT- favorites win race after race and it appears to be biased towards frontrunners when in fact the horses chasing them just weren't very good, and are just as inept when moving back to the main track that doesn't have the supposed bias that day had. Keep this in mind when judging the performances on Fl Derby day.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

"The Robot"... That's great.






I laughed.

It's a great nickname. Watching an interview of him, you half expect someone to be pressing buttons on his back with canned responses.

[Linny]

If we assume that PC and IWR were "latent" dirt horses spinning their wheels (albeit very quickly) on the synthetics, why can we not make the leap of faith that POTN might be also?
Were the improvements shown by PC and IWR surface driven or just the progression of good 3yo's improving well under good care? When you take into account that some players who use and analyze figs feel that Beyers are about 4-5 points too low on Syth, in general, them those two colts really didn't leap forward very much.

I understand that handicappers are negative on POTN in part because they have no data on which to assess him as a Derby horse with the surface switch. If this was one of last season's leading Euro 2yo's and he was coming to the KY Derby we'd be faced with the same challenge. We'd have to do what we always do. What are the trainer's stats with this move? Has he done this before? How is the horse bred? Does his running style suit the switch? Most of all, what is an acceptable price relative to risk?

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Ok so if Spectacular Bid beat Seattle Slew and Affirmed on dirt then Seattle Slew and Affirmed went on to win grass races, you wouldn't give Bid a longer look in his grass debut?

Nobody is saying it's any kind of certainty that Pioneer will handle the dirt. I have no clue whatsoever. Let me ask you how big of a part does class handicapping play when you are looking at a race? For example, let's say Rail Trip went out and beat Commentator in the Met Mile in his next race then they decide to put him on grass for his next start. I don't know how Rail Trip will handle the grass but I do know that he's a good horse to beat Commentator. Perhaps Papa Clem and IWR both suck on synthetics and are 8-10 lengths better on dirt. Entirely possible. Same could be true of Pioneer. I'm just saying that while the synthetics can mute the form of some horses and raise the form of others, it's USUALLY not going to make bad horses beat good horses. I just think that it's not a negative that he beat them and it's not meaningless. It can only be a plus. How big of one is what's to be determined.

Just look at Curlin... was a monster on dirt and not the same on grass or synthetics.

that basically proves was Kasept and Ziggy are saying.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Just look at Curlin... was a monster on dirt and not the same on grass or synthetics.

that basically proves was Kasept and Ziggy are saying.

This is silly though. You can't take one horse and say that's proves anything. I could just as easily say "just look at Zenyatta, who was a monster on both" or Midnite Lute or Tiago or Indian Blessing. All of them were good enough to win graded stakes on synthetics and on real dirt. All of them appear to be better on dirt. Why is it automatic that Pioneer can't be is all I ask? I also don't think it's fair to say that Curlin was a monster on dirt. Those last few races were FAAAAR from monster efforts and his losses on grass and synthetics weren't exactly to claiming horses.

Saying one horse proves something........I might as well say that all horses trained by Servis can win the Derby because Smarty Jones proved that.

[Diver67]

I'm hoping Pioneer is the real deal as he is my hometown horse but I do acknowledge the concerns over the surface switch and his "slow" Beyers. But it is almost comical how all the experts declare that IWR and PC are "obviously" better on dirt--and that Take the Points (also beaten by Pioneer) is "obviously" worse on synthetics. I could understand being cautious about Pioneer until he runs on dirt, but I don't understand the wide disregard for him given the horses he's beaten.

And don't get me started on some of the love-fests for Chocolate Candy, who will also "obviously" move up on dirt.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Papa Clem is about as good on dirt as he is on synthetic tracks. Even though his sire Smart Strike is also the sire of confirmed synthetic track haters Curlin and Fabulous Strike ... and both Papa Clem's dam and 2nd were Grade 1 winners on real dirt.

Take the Points is also as "good" on synthetic as he is on dirt.

I Want Revenge is light years better on dirt than synthetic. I would load up on Take the Points against IWR on a syn track.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

This is silly though. You can't take one horse and say that's proves anything. I could just as easily say "just look at Zenyatta, who was a monster on both" or Midnite Lute or Tiago or Indian Blessing. All of them were good enough to win graded stakes on synthetics and on real dirt. All of them appear to be better on dirt. Why is it automatic that Pioneer can't be is all I ask? I also don't think it's fair to say that Curlin was a monster on dirt. Those last few races were FAAAAR from monster efforts and his losses on grass and synthetics weren't exactly to claiming horses.

Saying one horse proves something........I might as well say that all horses trained by Servis can win the Derby because Smarty Jones proved that.

you are being silly. I said "and that proves was Kasept and Ziggy were saying"

Which was... you dont know whats going to happen.

And the Curlin example does prove that.

I never said or implied that the Curlin example means all horses who run well on dirt will suck on synthetics.. or vise versa.

Nobody knows what POTN is going to do on dirt. He could love it, like it, or hate it. But you cant say just because IWR and Papa Clem like the dirt that means POTN will...

that is what my post was about.


Edit: So basically.. the people who bet on POTN in the Derby will have no idea how this horse will take to the surface (like DrugS said, water is wet). Its a bigger gamble than betting on horses who already have established their dirt form. But than again betting is a risk vs reward situation... and POTN odds may be to low to be worth the risk.

[FATPIANO]

The unknown factor, POTN has beaten both Papa Clem and IWR, they have both come back to win big races, but on dirt, So to me common sense says take a good long look at POTN on Derby Day, no guarantees here, but HE does deserve a good long look, and if Baffert works him at Churchill Downs and he works like he does at Home, WATCH OUT

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

This is silly though. You can't take one horse and say that's proves anything. I could just as easily say "just look at Zenyatta, who was a monster on both" or Midnite Lute or Tiago or Indian Blessing. All of them were good enough to win graded stakes on synthetics and on real dirt. All of them appear to be better on dirt. Why is it automatic that Pioneer can't be is all I ask? I also don't think it's fair to say that Curlin was a monster on dirt. Those last few races were FAAAAR from monster efforts and his losses on grass and synthetics weren't exactly to claiming horses.

Saying one horse proves something........I might as well say that all horses trained by Servis can win the Derby because Smarty Jones proved that.

i never said it was automatic. i said that people making the claim that IWR and papa having dirt form somehow flatters POTN is incorrect. it tells us nothing about how pioneer will handle dirt. i said i wouldn't use him, because i think all things being equal or relatively so class-wise, that i would use a horse with proven dirt ability over one who has no proof. that i wouldn't use a horse having to do too many 'firsts' in a race like the derby.


when you consider the thousands of horses who race on poly vs how many try dirt, and how many make it on dirt, i think you'd find that horses like zenyatta are an anomaly. she is a good horse-moreso because she has handled more than one surface. but not all good horses on one surface are good on all surfaces, just because some are.