5/2 (CD): Kentucky Derby (G1)

[philcski]

Originally Posted by CSC

I prefer Regal Ransom from a pace perspective, there really wasn't much difference between the 2 from their Dubai preps if you exclude the middle race where DP won by 4 1/2, but the best way to decide is view the replays for yourself. I'm going to work both of them into my picks, they are my main plays this year because they offer excellent value, I'll throw in a saver somewhere also.

In the middle race, RR contested a very hot pace and DP rolled by late. In terms of actual performance there was not much difference.

Originally Posted by tjfla

Desert Party will be about 7/1 as the wiseguy horse

Dunkirk and Friesan Fire should drop

You can bet Desert Party at philcski.com fixed odds 7/1 any time you want.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I agree. If I make a win bet, it'll be on Regal Ransom.

he's got nice odds on him as well.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by CSC

Dunkirk's not impossible, however 4-1 is very short. I would have no interest other than a saver exotic bet with him. Looks like his odds are drastically shorter with QR's defection.

agreed... if the lines stay line the Morning lines are... I'll only play Dunkirk on top of an exacta with some longshots I like...

Dunkirk over West side bernie, Hold me back, Chocolate Candy, General Quarters and Desert Part.

If the odds stay similar I'll also probably bet Desert Party to win (though if he is the wise guy horse his odds will probably fall)

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

agreed... if the lines stay line the Morning lines are... I'll only play Dunkirk on top of an exacta with some longshots I like...

Dunkirk over West side bernie, Hold me back, Chocolate Candy, General Quarters and Desert Part.

If the odds stay similar I'll also probably bet Desert Party to win (though if he is the wise guy horse his odds will probably fall)

I think if you are playing any of the alternatives(I consider the Godolphin pair alternatives) you have to play either 1 of either IWR, Dunkirk, or POTN as a saver. The odds on these as win bets are not exciting possibilities so you have to hope you can catch the exacta/tri with them. There will be some good horses at outrageous prices so putting a few on huge overlays can't be a bad idea. No one's talked about the Mott horse for instance, so there are plays for sure.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I agree. If I make a win bet, it'll be on Regal Ransom.

Regal Ransom isn't all that much and has to be considered very suspect at 10fs.

He barely beat Desert Party with a dream trip over a gold rail speed track last time.

[miraja2]

I actually don't see this race as that wide open after the defection of Quality Road. Anything better than 7/2 on I Want Revenge would be a gift in my opinion.
I think my only play here will be I Want Revenge to win, and a Pioneerof the Nile/I Want Revenge exacta box.

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I actually don't see this race as that wide open after the defection of Quality Road. Anything better than 7/2 on I Want Revenge would be a gift in my opinion.
I think my only play here will be I Want Revenge to win, and a Pioneerof the Nile/I Want Revenge exacta box.

Can I book that bet?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by kgar311

Can I book that bet?

Unlike many people, I don't have a real strong opinion one way or the other on Pioneerof the Nile. I wouldn't be shocked if he was in the exacta, and I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't finish in the top half. How can anyone really know one way or the other how he'll handle a new surface under race conditions?
His final odds are difficult to predict, and he might end up being overbet, but for me his pedigree and works over the track lead me to believe that he might actually like the dirt. If he does, he is one of the very few horses in the race that I think might have a shot at beating I Want Revenge....who I see as a very solid favorite.

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Unlike many people, I don't have a real strong opinion one way or the other on Pioneerof the Nile. I wouldn't be shocked if he was in the exacta, and I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't finish in the top half. How can anyone really know one way or the other how he'll handle a new surface under race conditions?
His final odds are difficult to predict, and he might end up being overbet, but for me his pedigree and works over the track lead me to believe that he might actually like the dirt. If he does, he is one of the very few horses in the race that I think might have a shot at beating I Want Revenge....who I see as a very solid favorite.

I say he might be the favorite and I also say he finishes 16th

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by kgar311

I also say he finishes 16th

Are you talking about I Want Revenge or Pioneerof the Nile?
If Pioneerof the Nile....you could be right.
If I Want Revenge....I think you're insane.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Unlike many people, I don't have a real strong opinion one way or the other on Pioneerof the Nile. I wouldn't be shocked if he was in the exacta, and I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't finish in the top half. How can anyone really know one way or the other how he'll handle a new surface under race conditions?
His final odds are difficult to predict, and he might end up being overbet, but for me his pedigree and works over the track lead me to believe that he might actually like the dirt. If he does, he is one of the very few horses in the race that I think might have a shot at beating I Want Revenge....who I see as a very solid favorite.

I think if you are sold on I want revenge... but not sold on POTN, you should play more than just an exact box with POTN... You should key I want revenge over a few horses that you think could run in the money.. and add some horses underneath who have some value.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Regal Ransom isn't all that much and has to be considered very suspect at 10fs.

He barely beat Desert Party with a dream trip over a gold rail speed track last time.

To be fair only 2 of the 5 winners on dirt could be truly termed golden rail trips, naturally pace horses. The other 3 dirt races the winners didn't ride the rail for the entire trip that evening.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The Sprint was a straight away - with Indian Blessing breaking from the far outside.

The three real Dubai Cup races on dirt were all won by the inside speed. Two Step Salsa, Regal Ransom, and Well Armed

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The Sprint was a straight away - with Indian Blessing breaking from the far outside.

The three real Dubai Cup races on dirt were all won by the inside speed. Two Step Salsa, Regal Ransom, and Well Armed

Two Step Salsa didn't ride the rail the entire trip that I am sure of.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I think if you are sold on I want revenge... but not sold on POTN, you should play more than just an exact box with POTN... You should key I want revenge over a few horses that you think could run in the money.. and add some horses underneath who have some value.

I am.
As I said, I am also betting I Want Revenge to win. That is where probably 75-80% of the money I'll bet on the race will go. I feel more confident that he will win this race than any horse I can remember in the Derby since Point Given (of course, we remember how that turned out).
I will probably just use the other 20-25% on the exacta box because POTN is the horse that seems the most likely of the rest to perhaps come up with a big effort and beat I Want Revenge. But for this race, a straight win bet seems the best bet for me, because I can't really distinguish between Dunkirk, Papa Clem, Desert Party, Friesan Fire, Mr. Hot Stuff, West Side Bernie, etc. when it comes to filling out the underneath portions of a tri or super.

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I am.
As I said, I am also betting I Want Revenge to win. That is where probably 75-80% of the money I'll bet on the race will go. I feel more confident that he will win this race than any horse I can remember in the Derby since Point Given (of course, we remember how that turned out).
I will probably just use the other 20-25% on the exacta box because POTN is the horse that seems the most likely of the rest to perhaps come up with a big effort and beat I Want Revenge. But for this race, a straight win bet seems the best bet for me, because I can't really distinguish between Dunkirk, Papa Clem, Desert Party, Friesan Fire, Mr. Hot Stuff, West Side Bernie, etc. when it comes to filling out the underneath portions of a tri or super.

Use 'em all swing for the fences!!

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

Use 'em all swing for the fences!!

A lack of makes that approach problematic.
A straight win bet means I don't have to worry about some slug sucking up for third and costing me a respectable cash.
Now if something strange happens and I Want Revenge is somehow 9/5, well, that changes things. But that seems unlikely.

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by miraja2

A lack of makes that approach problematic.
A straight win bet means I don't have to worry about some slug sucking up for third and costing me a respectable cash.
Now if something strange happens and I Want Revenge is somehow 9/5, well, that changes things. But that seems unlikely.

I was just kidding...I wish I had the restraint you do.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by CSC

Two Step Salsa didn't ride the rail the entire trip that I am sure of.

Two Step Salsa was on the lead, but just off the rail in the two path.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Regal Ransom isn't all that much and has to be considered very suspect at 10fs.

He barely beat Desert Party with a dream trip over a gold rail speed track last time.

I think he is a decent horse, but if the UAE Derby was 10 furlongs, Desert Party was going to win by more than a length.