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#21
06-05-2009, 03:20 PM
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what if the guy hit say MTB in the derby , wouldn't that push his ROI % or if he scored with a 1ster at toga that paid $80 , then went cold for a while and then went on a chalk fest run to boost his win % but not pumping up the roi as much??? 
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#22
06-05-2009, 03:23 PM
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LOL gales. I've got a nice bridge to sell you also!
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#23
06-05-2009, 03:27 PM
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#24
06-05-2009, 03:27 PM
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kaspet blackthoratwind dahoss rootdog bigmc rudeboyelvis hovvesupsideyourhead gpk - maybe not this year scav - ok he's in the 99.9% but at least he has fun 
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#25
06-05-2009, 03:29 PM
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#27
06-05-2009, 03:33 PM
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Question for you, would it even be possible to have a positive ROI by making win bets only? Or is multi-race bets the only way?
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#29
06-05-2009, 03:37 PM
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Its not my business whether those people have positive ROI's or not... but the only way I'd believe someone who told me they made money betting would be to see their tax forms. Edit: mistergee makes a very good point. Rebates can give you a chance at a positive ROI.
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#30
06-05-2009, 03:47 PM
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Personally, I think investing a (relatively) significant amount of money to get back 6-10:1 (or less, as is usually the case) is not the way to go. I believe that it's easier to make money betting to win. And, additionally, it's a bit harder to win betting limited number (2 plays max) exotics (exactas and doubles). But the real problem, assuming one has the skill, is actually believing you can do it. Let's say, for example, that I have a 25% hit rate with a 25% ROI over 60 win bets. At what point do I start believing that I can do this consistently? Over how many races do I need to show similar numbers? 100, 500, 1000? And, additionally, how am I showing this return: are my prices consistent or do I have a number of huge longshots? Do I count on 5 'scores' over the year to make my money, like the exotic player, or do I have consistent returns? It's a mind game thing. 
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#31
06-05-2009, 04:54 PM
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Jockey Kerwin Clark has ridden over 3,000 mounts in his career at Evangeline Downs ... and his ROI is above $2.40. So, he's over 20% profitable from a 3K + sample size .. and he doesn't have nearly as much freedom as a bettor does to pick and choose.
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#32
06-05-2009, 05:04 PM
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Ole' Timer says to another leaving Keystone Race Track (Philly ) ...""Its a good thing I broke even today, I really needed the money """!!!! Gotta Love Horse Racing !!
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#33
06-05-2009, 05:10 PM
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Some guy from California who has done seminars with none other than Aaron Hesz.
He claims a prominent California breeder asked him to take over his ranch and breed his horses but he declined.
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#34
06-05-2009, 05:31 PM
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My top selection in the paper this year is winning at 28.5% with a $2.13 ROI My top two selections in an exacta box have connected 22-for-144 - so 15.3% with a $3.61 ROI My top three selections in a Tri box have connected 11-for-123 - so 9% with a $1.98 ROI .. on 21 occasions one of my top 3 was scratched.
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#35
06-05-2009, 05:50 PM
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if you are hitting 35% of win bets with a high ROI you are good enough to be questioned (or are really lying) , and at the same time you are saying that you don't understand the parimutuel system.
the goal in a parimutuel market is to pick low priced losers. Then you search all the available pools and find the highest percentage play that returns your minimum value demand. If your bankroll is $1000, you might bet about $20-40 on the play. Usually your are limited to WPS and DB Ex. If you are willing to gamble risk of ruin for higher payout you can use the multi race wagers.
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#36
06-05-2009, 08:53 PM
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#38
06-05-2009, 09:36 PM
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Your lowish ROI for win bets, given your fine hit rate, is probably due to being constrained to provide a daily best bet opinion at this particular venue. I have no doubt that if you were providing a daily best bet (or bets) covering a number of tracks, allowing you to better pick your spots, your ROI would probably be around $2.40 or so. I haven't played PID much at all, as I'd said I would. I get the sense, however, that it's every bit as difficult, if not more so given the quality of horses, than WO. And, GG, HOL, SA, and TP, are ****in snacks compared to WO.
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#39
06-05-2009, 09:57 PM
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Does this have anything to do with Youbet now showing users their ROI and % on almost any bet they've made?
For example, apparently I've placed one (must have been drunk) wager on jockey Chad Murphy for an ROI of 1145%. And 8 bets on Patrick Husbands for an ROI of -100%. WOW...Ramon Dominguez 28 bets, -100%. Ramon and I are 0-28 on Youbet the last 11 months!
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#40
06-05-2009, 10:07 PM
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What's hilarious to me is Doug's ROI, writing for the Erie Times-News, is so much better than the biggest racing coverage newspaper in the country's daily 5 handicappers (who all average worse than the takeout on their BEST meets, and play into an infinitely larger pool.)
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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