7/4-5 (HOL): American H. (G2); American Oaks (G1); Triple Bend (G1) - Page 2

NTamm1215 · #21 07-05-2009, 06:11 PM

Aside from the Dermot Weld and first lasix angles, which are usually overbet, I'm not seeing what there is to like about Rare Ransom. The Rooftop race just did not look very impressive and she beat a field that didn't quicken on a boggy course.

Adding a quarter of a mile to the farthest she's ever gone is also a problem in my opinion. I doubt she'll struggle with the distance in the end, but it's a concern. Her last win also came on the pace and she's not going to get the lead here.

I think, like last year, this is a B list group of imports and the Americans will hold up well.

NT

brockguy · #22 07-05-2009, 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Aside from the Dermot Weld and first lasix angles, which are usually overbet, I'm not seeing what there is to like about Rare Ransom. The Rooftop race just did not look very impressive and she beat a field that didn't quicken on a boggy course.

Adding a quarter of a mile to the farthest she's ever gone is also a problem in my opinion. I doubt she'll struggle with the distance in the end, but it's a concern. Her last win also came on the pace and she's not going to get the lead here.

I think, like last year, this is a B list group of imports and the Americans will hold up well.

NT

You could well be spot on. I was telling Bigs earlier on this week that I didnt really see either as a true G1 filly. Weld said she compared favourably to Dimitrova but I dont see it that way! I suppose it all depends how good the local team are.

eajinabi · #23 07-05-2009, 06:43 PM

Third Dawn looks like he may run a good race. Sadler takes an ambitous turn with this one but has run in the money 6 of 7 starts with his bad one was a horrible break from the gat at Keeneland. I will take a shot here.

The Bet:
$100 WP Third Dawn

Gander · #24 07-05-2009, 07:10 PM

I like Street Magician in the Triple Bend.

dalakhani · #25 07-05-2009, 07:34 PM

I like Magical Affair at 8-1. Someone tell me why that is a bad bet.

hockey2315 · #26 07-05-2009, 07:35 PM

She shouldn't be 8-1.

Gander · #27 07-05-2009, 07:36 PM

Theres no bad bet in here. Good luck. If you cash in here, you'll get paid.
I'm taking a shot with Mrs Kipling, who is also a pretty fair price.

Sightseek · #28 07-05-2009, 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I like Magical Affair at 8-1. Someone tell me why that is a bad bet.

Cause I like her too.

the_fat_man · #29 07-05-2009, 07:52 PM

When you see Kent ride patiently, getting in position on the turn but just sitting there, not going after the leaders because it makes no sense at that point, you wonder about all his (and other jocks') premature moves.

hockey2315 · #30 07-05-2009, 07:52 PM

Nice, Julien.

10 pnt move up · #31 07-05-2009, 07:56 PM

Rosario could have grabbed a popcorn he was so far out to the outer rail.....Kent D won the race on the turn, the 2 could have been right there.

dalakhani · #32 07-05-2009, 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Nice, Julian.

LOL. Well put! Maybe the Fat Man can expound on that a little for us.

blackthroatedwind · #33 07-05-2009, 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Nice, Julian.

She couldn't have been worse than 2nd.

hockey2315 · #34 07-05-2009, 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

She couldn't have been worse than 2nd.

No doubt.

NTamm1215 · #35 07-05-2009, 08:01 PM

Gozzip Girl has blossomed into a nice filly. She seems to go wherever and do whatever her jockey wants.

NT

the_fat_man · #36 07-05-2009, 08:05 PM

First class headon replay by HOL. You can really dig into a race with such comprehensive video.

CSC · #37 07-05-2009, 08:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

LOL. Well put! Maybe the Fat Man can expound on that a little for us.

I'll try, Julien made the mistake of following a tiring horse and ended running up that horse's azz. Picked the wrong horse to follow was his epitaph today.

the_fat_man · #38 07-05-2009, 08:12 PM

Seems like quite a few here went down with the 2. Too bad. Would've loved to have seen her get a clear run. Now we have to wait for next time with her to see what she's made of (well, not really).

JerseyJ · #39 07-05-2009, 08:13 PM

The race was won by Desormeaux's move into the stretch. Great ride by him to get first run in the best spot on everyone...Heady rides more often than not are the difference on the grass, case and point, Elvis Trujillo yesterday on Presious Passion, who clearly has the ability to go fast on the front end in a marathon. Rather than try and wrangle him back, he let him roll and do what he does best on the front end, and look what happens. Heady ride by Kent today to not get stuck in behind horses breaking from the rail in a 14 horse field.

dalakhani · #40 07-05-2009, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

I'll try, Julien made the mistake of following a tiring horse and ended running up that horse's azz. Picked the wrong horse to follow was his epitaph today.

Surely he is much too smart to follow a 20-1 shot that made an early move. No?