Are you ready for SA Showvivor?

[PeteMugg]

Took Zenyatta. Would have felt foolish had I not chose her and missed the board.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I made it past today, too, Pete.

I'll be choosing from these 3 tomorrow:

1. Indian Firewater
4. Magical Fantasy
8. Zenyatta

Despite the fact that all 3 of those horses finished 2nd or better, 73 people were eliminated yesterday leaving just 477 of the original 3713. Here are the leading picks from yesterday, according to the website:

266 people selected #05 Zenyatta in race 8

83 people selected #02 Indian Firewater in race 1

43 people selected #01 Magical Fantasy in race 4

21 people selected #06 New Bay in race 3

18 people selected #10 Excellent News in race 5

15 people selected #01 Noblety in race 3

11 people selected #03 Privilaged in race 1

6 people selected #09 Cowboy Cal in race 6

5 people selected #04 Black Mamba in race 4

3 people selected #10 Whatsthescript in race 6

2 people selected #07 Get My Fix in race 10

I'm leaning toward Differentkindagreat in the 2nd today.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'm leaning toward Differentkindagreat in the 2nd today.

Between that one and Ruffled Feathers in the 3rd.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Stayed with Differentkindagreat for today's pick.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Stayed with Differentkindagreat for today's pick.

Differentkindagreat won, but so did pretty much every fav yesterday. Yet amazingly enough, another 53 people dropped by the wayside leaving 424 players.

Lots of short fields today. I'm probably going with Talktoomuch in the first.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Lots of short fields today. I'm probably going with Talktoomuch in the first.

178 of us chose Talktoomuch. I watched the race and thought my contest was finished. Talktoomuch fell back into 4th place with the wire maybe 25 yards away--then the unbelievable happened. The horse running 2nd took a couple of awkward steps and lost the rider, allowing Talktoomuch to finish 3rd.

56 more people dropped out today. Now just 368 of the original 3713 are left. My tournament equity hits double figures: 3713/368 = $10.

--Dunbar

[PeteMugg]

true to form, I get below 500 and run fourth.

it's up to you, Dunbar, bring it home

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

My tournament equity hits double figures: 3713/368 = $10.

Brain f**t. The equity is 5000/368 = $13.59

--Dunbar

PS--Sorry you're out, Pete!

[Dunbar]

Traveling all day today. Have to pick before seeing scratches.

Sam's Special in the 2nd. Go Mullins!

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Traveling all day today. Have to pick before seeing scratches.

Sam's Special in the 2nd. Go Mullins!

Still in. 40 more dropped out yesterday, leaving 328.

Tough day today. I like Cardiff Giant in the 8th, but there were 2 scratches from the 2nd, leaving just 5 horses--meaning I only need to beat 2 of them to stay alive.

I can see the 2 most likely to finish out of the money, but it wasn't at all obvious to me which of the other 3 is the safest bet. Went with Langfuhrious. Will probably regret deserting Cardiff Giant.

--Dunbar

[mbahadur]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Tough day today. I like Cardiff Giant in the 8th, but there were 2 scratches from the 2nd, leaving just 5 horses--meaning I only need to beat 2 of them to stay alive.

I can see the 2 most likely to finish out of the money, but it wasn't at all obvious to me which of the other 3 is the safest bet. Went with Langfuhrious. Will probably regret deserting Cardiff Giant.

--Dunbar

I also originally had Cardiff Giant, but with him coming off short rest, I decided to switch to the 5-horse 2nd race with the 2 weak 12-1 shots. I selected Fog Alert out of the 3 who had the best chance to finish in the money, although the blinkers on, the layoff, and the slower works do concern me. I don't see much pace in this 2nd race.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by mbahadur

I also originally had Cardiff Giant, but with him coming off short rest, I decided to switch to the 5-horse 2nd race with the 2 weak 12-1 shots. I selected Fog Alert out of the 3 who had the best chance to finish in the money, although the blinkers on, the layoff, and the slower works do concern me. I don't see much pace in this 2nd race.

We got another scratch in that race, leaving just 4 horses. There was no show betting, but our picks still counted.

We would have been okay with Cardiff Giant in the 8th, too--finished 1st.

39 people dropped out yesterday, leaving 289 of the original 3713. Equity per player has climbed to $17.

Today I'm leaning toward Raiding Party in the 3rd. But I have to leave for another road trip before I'll get to see the scratches.

--Dunbar

[mbahadur]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

We Today I'm leaning toward Raiding Party in the 3rd. But I have to leave for another road trip before I'll get to see the scratches

Nice call - Raiding Party finished second.

I took Silent Stalk who held on for 3rd by a head. It may be a while before I select another Showvivor horse from a race going down the hill. My other option for today would have been the Baffert horse that held on for 3rd by less than a length in the fourth race. Probably another day where alot of players will move on.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by mbahadur

Nice call - Raiding Party finished second.

I'd forgotten that Raiding Party was also my horse one week earlier!

Originally Posted by mbahadur

I took Silent Stalk who held on for 3rd by a head. It may be a while before I select another Showvivor horse from a race going down the hill. My other option for today would have been the Baffert horse that held on for 3rd by less than a length in the fourth race. Probably another day where alot of players will move on.

Right. Only 18 dropped by the wayside yesterday. The previous lowest number of dropouts was 39. There are 271 of us left.

If I'd started with a $100 bet and reinvested my winnings, after 11 days my bank would have grown to $366, plus $3 in roundoff change. (+$269)

I looked hard at today's 2nd race after a scratch reduced it to 5. But I couldn't settle on one runner that was that much better than any of the other 4. Tempted by Via Verde in the 4th, but 1st time on grass. Leaning toward Niger River in the 3rd.

--Dunbar

[mbahadur]

Went with Oliver in the 2nd race.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by mbahadur

Went with Oliver in the 2nd race.

Oliver is the 2nd most popular pick today. (58 players chose Oliver). I usually have one of the 2 most popular picks, but today my pick isn't even in the top 10. At most 2 other players picked Niger River. Another horse from Race 3, Union Soldier, is the #1 pick today.

7 players are already eliminated after Race 1.

Good luck with Oliver!

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Good work, mbahadur. Nice show payoff, too. Even though Oliver went off as the 9/5 fav, he had less than 1/3 the show money that the 2-1 2nd fav had. And he had just 2/3 the show money of the 5/2 3rd choice. $2.60 is pretty nice on the fav in a 5 horse race!

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

A surprising 33 people dropped out yesterday, leaving 238 players. I'm listed as #236 because of my measely 2 winners in the 12 races. But the actual tiebreaker, if necessary, will depend on highest show prices.

My hypothetical $100 starting bankroll has climbed to $439 after 12 races.

There are several short fields today. My pre-scratch pick is the 2nd ML fav in the 5-horse 3rd: Star Redeemer.

--Dunbar

[mbahadur]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

There are several short fields today. My pre-scratch pick is the 2nd ML fav in the 5-horse 3rd: Star Redeemer.

Going the same route with Star Redeemer in the 3rd, which is now a 4 horse race due to a scratch.

[gorvy]

This is a true survivor contest, too bad I missed it. I miss the NYRA ones too, although that one usually comes down to tie breakers. In my opinion, they should start the survivor contests at the beginning of each meet so that there would be no need for ties unless someone lasts the ENTIRE meet without running out.