Any horses/win bets in this year's BC - Page 2

Gander · #21 10-13-2009, 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

There's almost always $$ to be made trying to beat speedballs like Zensational in the BC Sprint. I'll be staying the heck away from him. If he wins that race with his style, he'll have to be an absolute monster. Maybe he is?

I doubt he is. For a horse with such excellent early speed, he sure does have a tendency to not break alertly, but use his speed to rush up and get the lead shortly thereafter. He hasnt faced anybody with any good early speed, so the jury is still very much out. To me, this is a horse you have to bet against, or just watch and have a hot fudge sundae.

Hard to envision a wire to wire win if the field is as big and as loaded with early speed as it has been rumored.

RolloTomasi · #22 10-13-2009, 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

How can Gayego be a near lock? What about Zensational?

I would be looking to beat Zensational even if he was pointing for the Damascus (3yo, 7f) on the undercard.

RockHardTen1985 · #23 10-13-2009, 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

I doubt he is. For a horse with such excellent early speed, he sure does have a tendency to not break alertly, but use his speed to rush up and get the lead shortly thereafter. He hasnt faced anybody with any good early speed, so the jury is still very much out. To me, this is a horse you have to bet against, or just watch and have a hot fudge sundae.

Hard to envision a wire to wire win if the field is as big and as loaded with early speed as it has been rumored.

I think he rolls and is 100% the goods...
And what the f on Sunday?

NTamm1215 · #24 10-13-2009, 04:17 PM

Horses like Zensational who have a lot of hype and not a great deal of substance are the very type that you can make a great deal of money beating.

In the Pat O'Brien he faced a woefully bad field of five where the next best horse was Noble Court, whose biggest accomplishment in 2009 was a win in the Ack Ack, a race that featured one of the most remarkable pace collapses in the history of racing. Zensational was the only speed and got away with a first quarter in :23.

In the Bing Crosby he once again faced a pace-challenged field as Delta Storm was the only horse who could keep him even remotely honest. He ran hard to clear and stayed clear in a solid effort.

The race that impressed me from him more than any other was the Friday night optional claimer where he stalked and took over through maniacal fractions. That, however, can't look as good when you consider the caliber of horses he was holding off late.

He's going to face incredible early pressure from the word go even if the other speed is simply Fatal Bullet. I am very interested in betting against him if he's going to be asked to withstand early pressure and still stand up late.

NT

Gander · #25 10-13-2009, 04:37 PM

I like Church Service in the Marathon. I think the euros will be greatly overbet in here given one won this race last year (and Muhannak is right back to defend his title). Watch the finish of Church Service from last year.
Big Booster also has to be mentioned but I think Church Service is a bit better on this surface.

NTamm1215 · #26 10-13-2009, 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

I like Church Service in the Marathon. I think the euros will be greatly overbet in here given one won this race last year (and Muhannak is right back to defend his title). Watch the finish of Church Service from last year.
Big Booster also has to be mentioned but I think Church Service is a bit better on this surface.

He's not running...

No repeat bid for Church Service

Church Service finished second in the 2008 Breeders' Cup Marathon here, but will not start in that race this year, Mitchell said. Church Service is winless in five starts this year, including an eighth-place finish in the Washington Park Handicap at Arlington Park last month.

"He needed a break," Mitchell said. "I would have loved to have run him in the Marathon, but he came back from Chicago kind of beat up and worn out."

http://www.drf.com/news/article/107837.html

NT

RockHardTen1985 · #27 10-13-2009, 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Horses like Zensational who have a lot of hype and not a great deal of substance are the very type that you can make a great deal of money beating.

In the Pat O'Brien he faced a woefully bad field of five where the next best horse was Noble Court, whose biggest accomplishment in 2009 was a win in the Ack Ack, a race that featured one of the most remarkable pace collapses in the history of racing. Zensational was the only speed and got away with a first quarter in :23.

In the Bing Crosby he once again faced a pace-challenged field as Delta Storm was the only horse who could keep him even remotely honest. He ran hard to clear and stayed clear in a solid effort.

The race that impressed me from him more than any other was the Friday night optional claimer where he stalked and took over through maniacal fractions. That, however, can't look as good when you consider the caliber of horses he was holding off late.

He's going to face incredible early pressure from the word go even if the other speed is simply Fatal Bullet. I am very interested in betting against him if he's going to be asked to withstand early pressure and still stand up late.

NT

I really dont see a sceniro where he gets beat. We shall see.

Kasept · #28 10-13-2009, 04:44 PM

Isn't Zensational similar to Henny Hughes? Henny was viewed as a very likely winner in his BC Sprint, and it took exactly the time for the latch to spring for his race to be over.

RockHardTen1985 · #29 10-13-2009, 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

I like Church Service in the Marathon. I think the euros will be greatly overbet in here given one won this race last year (and Muhannak is right back to defend his title). Watch the finish of Church Service from last year.
Big Booster also has to be mentioned but I think Church Serviasce is a bit better on this surface.

People always talk about the Euros being overbet, they are 90% of the time just flat out better.... Look at last year, I belive an Americans best shot in the turf is Just as Well and best shot in the Classic is Zenyatta, and that is not saying much.

Gander · #30 10-13-2009, 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

He's not running...

No repeat bid for Church Service

Church Service finished second in the 2008 Breeders' Cup Marathon here, but will not start in that race this year, Mitchell said. Church Service is winless in five starts this year, including an eighth-place finish in the Washington Park Handicap at Arlington Park last month.

"He needed a break," Mitchell said. "I would have loved to have run him in the Marathon, but he came back from Chicago kind of beat up and worn out."

http://www.drf.com/news/article/107837.html

NT

Ugh, thanks for the update.

Gander · #31 10-13-2009, 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

People always talk about the Euros being overbet, they are 90% of the time just flat out better.... Look at last year, I belive an Americans best shot in the turf is Just as Well and best shot in the Classic is Zenyatta, and that is not saying much.

I wasnt talking about the turf or the Classic. Just the Marathon. And I dont think much of last year's winner coming back with another dream trip win like that.

Gate Dancer · #32 10-13-2009, 05:00 PM

I was interested in Family Foundation in the Bourbon Stakes last Saturday and will stay interested in him in he goes in the Juv Turf.

RockHardTen1985 · #33 10-13-2009, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gate Dancer

I was interested in Family Foundation in the Bourbon Stakes last Saturday and will stay interested in him in he goes in the Juv Turf.

This is the race that IMO is ripe for a Euro... With this Pletcher horse getting a ton of attention, I am excited to see the Euros for this.... I also think Todd has another horse, a Giants Causeway that might be pretty dam good.

randallscott35 · #34 10-13-2009, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Isn't Zensational similar to Henny Hughes? Henny was viewed as a very likely winner in his BC Sprint, and it took exactly the time for the latch to spring for his race to be over.

Ding ding ding. Huge play against for me.

the_fat_man · #35 10-13-2009, 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Isn't Zensational similar to Henny Hughes? Henny was viewed as a very likely winner in his BC Sprint, and it took exactly the time it took for the latch to spring for his race to be over.

I think this horse is better than HH. But it's hard to tell how good he really is because when I watch his races, I'm always left thinking that he didn't win 'cleanly' and that he'd have won much easier and by a wider margin with a cleaner trip. Even his last race, where he changed leads and stayed righty the entire stretch, he was drifting periodically on the backstretch and switching leads early. His footwork seems to be getting better, however. Though, Espinoza is definitely NOT the jock I'd want up on him. Doubtful this horse is able to stay straight on the backstretch in a large field which could compromise his chances.

I don't know who else is pointed for the Sprint but if there's some more pace in the race, and they decide to go with Z, rather than rate him just off it, I don't see why Noble Court wouldn't have as good a chance as any of the others. (Assuming he's going, of course.)

brianwspencer · #36 10-13-2009, 06:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gate Dancer

I was interested in Family Foundation in the Bourbon Stakes last Saturday and will stay interested in him in he goes in the Juv Turf.

Interesting. I think he's the goods, so I'm with you.

RockHardTen1985 · #37 10-13-2009, 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I think this horse is better than HH. But it's hard to tell how good he really is because when I watch his races, I'm always left thinking that he didn't win 'cleanly' and that he'd have won much easier and by a wider margin with a cleaner trip. Even his last race, where he changed leads and stayed righty the entire stretch, he was drifting periodically on the backstretch and switching leads early. His footwork seems to be getting better, however. Though, Espinoza is definitely NOT the jock I'd want up on him. Doubtful this horse is able to stay straight on the backstretch in a large field which could compromise his chances.

I don't know who else is pointed for the Sprint but if there's some more pace in the race, and they decide to go with Z, rather than rate him just off it, I don't see why Noble Court wouldn't have as good a chance as any of the others. (Assuming he's going, of course.)

I told someone earlier I thought Z was better "faster" then LITF and HH and the person told me I was crazy.

RolloTomasi · #38 10-13-2009, 07:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gate Dancer

I was interested in Family Foundation in the Bourbon Stakes last Saturday and will stay interested in him in he goes in the Juv Turf.

You can trace just about every stakes horse Glen Hill Farm ever bred in that horse's pedigree, top and bottom.

randallscott35 · #39 10-13-2009, 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I told someone earlier I thought Z was better "faster" then LITF and HH and the person told me I was crazy.

He's never run a figure close to either. Not one.

RockHardTen1985 · #40 10-13-2009, 07:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

He's never run a figure close to either. Not one.

I think your confused... This is also the synthetic era now, and Z is a freak on it. I think Zensationals top beyer is a 111... I dont remember LITF running anything that high.