DOWNS DAWN PATROL (4/21): Lookin at Lucky sparkles.. - Page 2

slotdirt · #21 04-21-2010, 04:18 PM

I say this with all due respect, but this is the first time I've ever heard someone say that clipping heels is basically no big deal in the context of lost momentum.

NTamm1215 · #22 04-21-2010, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I say this with all due respect, but this is the first time I've ever heard someone say that clipping heels is basically no big deal in the context of lost momentum.

Every time it happens it's different but the amount that Gomez had to compensate for the actual occurrence was minimal, he did a great job and the horse is athletic. The difference between his heel clipping in the Rebel and when he was shut off in the SA Derby is gigantic.

NT

Thunder Gulch · #23 04-21-2010, 04:24 PM

His loss of ground in the Rebel wasn't huge as you say, but it appeared he did have momentum and was unwinding to go by others when it happened. Actual loss maybe a length or two, but that's not the real story. Just my opinion.

the_fat_man · #24 04-21-2010, 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I say this with all due respect, but this is the first time I've ever heard someone say that clipping heels is basically no big deal in the context of lost momentum.

Here's what I suggest. Seriously. Get a track bike and head over to your local park or velodrome. Hook up with a peloton and position yourself behind and between a pack of cyclists. Note how much easier your trip is when you're drafting as opposed to when you're going without cover. Sooner or later you'll get cut off, be forced to 'check'. If you're behind/between, and it's during a 'break', you'll be surprised how it doesn't really matter, as you're:

1) still being carried along by the draft
2) able to make up whatever difference was lost easily, as those breaking before you have only a finite amount of energy and they've used it before you.

In fact, 'checking' is an ADVANTAGE in these cases.

If you're outside and not drafting, and you're dropped because you're forced to check, it's a lot harder to make up. Of course, it really depends on how intense the 'break' was. If they went too hard, you still have an advantage -- especially if the 'race' collapses and favors late runners.

If you're going to remark that cycling is not horse racing, I will point you to Mr Dominguez and how he rides them like track bikes.

P.S. The reason this isn't obvious is because of the BIAS on dirt tracks. DIRT goes against PHYSICS.

herkhorse · #25 04-21-2010, 09:06 PM

dirt goes against physics?

blackthroatedwind · #26 04-21-2010, 09:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Not surprised by Esken's condition.

Every since your clever prognostication from November 9, 2006, I always pay careful attention to your opinions on Derby contenders....

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Thorograph has their numbers posted for the entire card on Saturday. I encourage you to take a look at it.

One number jumped out. A Negative 2 by Street Sense in the juvenile even while being checked on the turn in the race.

I will go on record as saying this horse will not run a negative number in his entire 3 yr old year and very likely not again in his career. I am no fan of numbers like that this early. Mind you also that front wraps were added for this start as well. The ultimate squeeze the lemon scenario and I think he is finished. He is a bet against from here on out.

randallscott35 · #27 04-21-2010, 09:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Every since your clever prognostication from November 9, 2006, I always pay careful attention to your opinions on Derby contenders....

Nothing like going back 4 years for effect....I did choose Hard Spun in said Derby. I also said I was obviously dead wrong about Street Sense at the time as well. Some horses you get right, some you get wrong. When you finish in the Top 50 in the national tourney like I have you let me know Andy.

AeWingnut · #28 04-21-2010, 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Never won when he didn't get a better trip than the winner...from the department of redundancy department.....
That Rebel was a great trip, well, after clipping heels with the horse in front and almost going down and all.

Don't Crush that Dwarf
Hand Me The Pliers

Scav · #29 04-21-2010, 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Every since your clever prognostication from November 9, 2006, I always pay careful attention to your opinions on Derby contenders....

Scav · #30 04-21-2010, 09:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Nothing like going back 4 years for effect....I did choose Hard Spun in said Derby. I also said I was obviously dead wrong about Street Sense at the time as well. Some horses you get right, some you get wrong. When you finish in the Top 50 in the national tourney like I have you let me know Andy.

OMG!

Top 50? You want a lollipop?

OMG!

Sightseek · #31 04-21-2010, 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

OMG!

Top 50? You want a lollipop?

OMG!

Scav · #32 04-21-2010, 09:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Seriously, I tend to take things way too far most of the time, but touting top 50 on something is absurd.

AeWingnut · #33 04-21-2010, 09:52 PM

I'll take you on

you just name the place

teasing

ateamstupid · #34 04-21-2010, 09:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Nothing like going back 4 years for effect....I did choose Hard Spun in said Derby. I also said I was obviously dead wrong about Street Sense at the time as well. Some horses you get right, some you get wrong. When you finish in the Top 50 in the national tourney like I have you let me know Andy.

He hardly needs me to defend him, but seriously? You think your handicapping accomplishments > his? What channel can I catch you on again?

randallscott35 · #35 04-21-2010, 09:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Seriously, I tend to take things way too far most of the time, but touting top 50 on something is absurd.

Apparently you forget how one gets their....My winning total in NY is still the highest total ever in 20 contests in their history and I am still the youngest person to ever win one of their tournaments as well. But ok Scavs.

randallscott35 · #36 04-21-2010, 09:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

He hardly needs me to defend him, but seriously? You think your handicapping accomplishments > his? What channel can I catch you on again?

Its not about accomplishments at all in fact its about money. And you don't make money in this game routinely betting favorites. I took a stand on a horse 4 years ago and was wrong. If Andy had more of a life he wouldn't be digging up 4 year old posts. Says more about him than me but whatev.

Scav · #37 04-21-2010, 09:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Apparently you forget how one gets their....My winning total in NY is still the highest total ever in 20 contests in their history and I am still the youngest person to ever win one of their tournaments as well. But ok Scavs.

Ok, so you swallowed a horse shoe and **** gold, congrats on the moons aligned for a day.

randallscott35 · #38 04-21-2010, 09:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Ok, so you swallowed a horse shoe and **** gold, congrats on the moons aligned for a day.

That must be it.

Scav · #39 04-21-2010, 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

That must be it.

It is it, when you get one of these let me know.

randallscott35 · #40 04-21-2010, 10:01 PM

And as to the wrap issue, it is my fault for not paying attention to Nafzger/Wilkes horses who almost always wear wraps, therefore it is a non-issue. Quite different from trainers who rarely use them...As to the neg 2 at the time, still the highest fig for a 2 year old who came back to be a champ 3 yr old. He was surely the exception....