Least & Most Vulnerable Favorites?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Most Vulnerable
Zenyatta
Rightly So
Tell a Kelly
Uncle Mo
Workforce
Girolamo

I think just about every favorite is vulnerable. If I had to pick three that are least likely to lose, it'd probably be Winter Memories, Midday and either Goldikova or Giant Oak.

I dont like Giant Oak at all.....
Rightly So I agree, but Im not sure she will be favorite.
Tell a Kelly totally agree, but is she going to be favorite over GOAT and Euro?
Uncle Mo looks tough.
Workforce looks really tough.
Girolamo looks strong to me also.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I can't possibly fathom someone leaving Winter Memories out of a Pick 4 completely. She's easily the most likely winner IMO, and even if you don't think so, if you get 3/4 because you left out a $6 horse, you really should be smacked.

Im not sure of my pick 4 strategy yet, but I might be tossing her in pick 3's and trying to press the Euros... Who simply might be better.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Im not sure of my pick 4 strategy yet, but I might be tossing her in pick 3's and trying to press the Euros... Who simply might be better.

Which euros 'might' be better and why?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I think Midday is going to lose and she'll be 4-5.

I dont think she will be 4-5. She wont fall under 1-1.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Which euros 'might' be better and why?

Food Plain,Together and Theyskens Theory.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I dont like Giant Oak at all.....
Rightly So I agree, but Im not sure she will be favorite.
Tell a Kelly totally agree, but is she going to be favorite over GOAT and Euro?
Uncle Mo looks tough.
Workforce looks really tough.
Girolamo looks strong to me also.

Uncle Mo doesn't do it for me. Obviously very talented, but he's yet to show he can rate and it's tough to take that kind of price on a horse with two starts against a lot of speed. Workforce, likewise, has raced five times since debuting last September, won one of the weaker Arcs I can remember, now has to turn around relatively quickly and ship across the pond. Not for me. I'll use defensively, but I'll try to beat him with Behkabad and to a lesser extent Debussy and Winchester.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Food Plain,Together and Theyskens Theory.

Theyskens' Theory is running in the JF, Flood Plain is nothing special and did you watch Together's Tattersalls race? Not the kind of performance I want to take a short price after. Tale Untold's the only Euro that interests me, but Winter Memories wins rather easily in my mind.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Theyskens' Theory is running in the JF, Flood Plain is nothing special and did you watch Together's Tattersalls race? Not the kind of performance I want to take a short price after. Tale Untold's the only Euro that interests me, but Winter Memories wins rather easily in my mind.

Maybe Im reaching? Im just not thrilled at taking even money on a 2yr old american grass filly. Tale Untold is the one I dont like.

I know we are not supposed to use turf beyers, but dident Allure D' Amour run almost the same race as Winter Memories?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Maybe Im reaching? Im just not thrilled at taking even money on a 2yr old american grass filly. Tale Untold is the one I dont like.

I know we are not supposed to use turf beyers, but dident Allure D' Amour run almost the same race as Winter Memories?

She won't be anywhere near even money, and she's scary good. I think it's more likely More Than Real beats her than Together or Flood Plain.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Uncle Mo doesn't do it for me. Obviously very talented, but he's yet to show he can rate and it's tough to take that kind of price on a horse with two starts against a lot of speed. Workforce, likewise, has raced five times since debuting last September, won one of the weaker Arcs I can remember, now has to turn around relatively quickly and ship across the pond. Not for me. I'll use defensively, but I'll try to beat him with Behkabad and to a lesser extent Debussy and Winchester.

Uncle Mo has shown perfectly well that he can rate. He rated very easily on the lead in both starts. Especially last time, he had that other horse trying for the lead, but he was very well within himself, then drew off.

[JerseyJ]

If Giralamo goes off favored I think he is the most vulnerable favorite on the card on Saturday. I think I can make a case for pretty much anyone in the Sprint other than Pashito the Che and Wise Dan. I think whomever wins that race is going to have to have a bit of a rating gear and I am going to bet a little on Hamazing Destiny who has been pretty damn good when running over a fast strip at 6F with a reasonable break. If he can get that and run his "A" race he should be right there off his 107 figure at CD at 6F.

As for least vulnerable favorite on Saturday I don't really see any way that Workforce loses as long as he shows up with his normal races, except for the dud he threw in the King George, his Epsom Derby and Arc are just way too good, and in a P4 situation he is a stand horse for me. Goldikova is a close second but not first because although Paco Boy has never beaten her, he's been closer to her than the others have been to Workforce.

As for horse who I think is the most likeliest winner on Saturday I would say it's Grand Adventure, who I think crushes if he runs back to his Nearctic or Connaught Cup. I think Frostad has found what he wants to do and that's sprint on the grass, he can run any way you ask him to and yeah he lost to Silver Timber last year but this year's Silver Timber has lost a step while this year's Grand Adventure has clearly improved big time.

On Friday, I think the most vulnerable favorite is Winter Memories if she goes off at the odds most expect. In fact I think the Juvenile Fillies turf may the be the most open race on the entire card on Friday, and think it's a scramble with Allure D'Amour, Fancy Point, Flood Plain, Kathmanblu, More Than Real, New Normal, Quiet Oasis, Tale Untold, and Together all having races that are as good as Winter Memories. I have to say I like New Normal's progression and think her last was very, very good.

I think the least vulnerable Friday favorite is Midday who's best race is probably too good for all in here, including Red Desire, and North America's best hope, which to me is Miss Keller who I will be using in both slots underneath Midday with various others. I just think if Midday shows up with her best, it's going to be awfully tough to beat her. To me Plumania is just ok, and our F&M Turf horses are just not very good to be quite frank.

I think the most likeliest winner on Friday is obviously Midday but the decent priced horse who I think has the best upset chance on Friday is Secret Gypsy who fired a big shot the last time she went 7F at Churchill Downs and is in very good form coming in, and should sit a really nice trip in here off Rightly So and can power home in the stretch and make them come get her in a wide open renewal of the Filly and Mare Sprint.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Uncle Mo has shown perfectly well that he can rate. He rated very easily on the lead in both starts. Especially last time, he had that other horse trying for the lead, but he was very well within himself, then drew off.

Rate behind horses. It's foolish to assume they can do it, especially when they're so lightly raced. I disagree that he rated so well by the way in the Champagne. He could've easily let I'm Steppin' it Up go on with it, but he didn't want to. If he goes :22 and :45 in the Juvy, he'll get dusted in the stretch.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Rate behind horses. It's foolish to assume they can do it, especially when they're so lightly raced. I disagree that he rated so well by the way in the Champagne. He could've easily let I'm Steppin' it Up go on with it, but he didn't want to. If he goes :22 and :45 in the Juvy, he'll get dusted in the stretch.

He looked pretty relaxed though, which is a good indicator that he'll be able to rate, if needed.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

He looked pretty relaxed though, which is a good indicator that he'll be able to rate, if needed.

He appears to have a high cruising speed, and I have to look at the pace in the Juvy more closely, I'm just saying if he's under the gun from the start because he wants to go, it won't be Mountain Town trying to reel him in. He's got a boatload of talent, but at 6-5 or so, I think he's poor value.

[keithting]

Most vulnerable - Goldikova

Least vulnerable - Blind Luck

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

He appears to have a high cruising speed, and I have to look at the pace in the Juvy more closely, I'm just saying if he's under the gun from the start because he wants to go, it won't be Mountain Town trying to reel him in. He's got a boatload of talent, but at 6-5 or so, I think he's poor value.

No doubt the value won't be there. That race looks pretty hard to play.

The Peruvian horse is interesting though. I read somewhere that he beat three year olds in his last start, which is pretty unusual!

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Maybe Im reaching? Im just not thrilled at taking even money on a 2yr old american grass filly. Tale Untold is the one I dont like.

I know we are not supposed to use turf beyers, but dident Allure D' Amour run almost the same race as Winter Memories?

I'm sure everyone saw the Miss Grillo. Winter Memories was running second to last in the 1-1/16 race, when they were went an ordinary 49 and change for the half. She had to go 6 or 7 wide and still effortlessly won.
She doesn't even have to move up off of that performance to win next Friday, if you ask me. She already proved she doesn't need a perfect trip to win.

[Clip-Clop]

Least-
Uncle Mo
Blind Luck
Most-
Zenyatta (way past vulnerable)
Goldi (still the likely winner, just a tough looking race)

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I know we are not supposed to use turf beyers, but dident Allure D' Amour run almost the same race as Winter Memories?

I want to believe you know better than this.

[richard]

I'm comfortable with Quality Road as a solid fav .