What are they waiting for? Nominate her to the Matriarch

[DaTruth]

In Tiznow's Classic at CD, the half was in 47 2/5. The remaining splits were
24 3/5, 24, 24 3/5.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by DaTruth

In Tiznow's Classic at CD, the half was in 47 2/5. The remaining splits were
24 3/5, 24, 24 3/5.

Being MOTO as hell - but the 24 flat 4th quarter there is a great indication that the speed was still strong after six furlongs.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Being MOTO as hell - but the 24 flat 4th quarter there is a great indication that the speed was still strong after six furlongs.

Yeah but the track was lightning that day. Chiluki set a track record and I think kona gold did as well.

The splits in the classic were slow. No?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Rupert-

Certainly not taking sides here but couldn't his reasoning for betting against the speed have been more because of quality and have less to do with pace? And if that were the case, wouldn't the reasonable fractions be of little importance?

Andy was on Steve's show this week talking about the race. He was asked about the race and he basically said that Zenyatta's performance was a little better than he expected but that it was not that big of a surprise based on the way the race was run and that people should not be that impressed that she came from so far back because it was actually an advantage for her to be over 20 lengths back.

So I was simply asking him if he would have predicted the speed horses would totally quit and Zenyatta would come flying if he knew that First Dude would be leading by a length in :47. I think it was a fair question but he obviously didn't because he refuses to answer it.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Make no mistake, :47 is a solid half for a 10f race at CD, even for the BC Classic.

The mistake that you're making is assuming that a simple analysis of the numerics is going to lead you to a conclusion on the outcome of the race. Have you looked at the pace figures for the Classic? It was a strong pace. It also completely collapsed. Even if you don't think the half-mile time itself was fast you can't deny that the pace took a mighty toll on the horses contesting it. When you have a pace, specifically in a route race that collapses, the late runners are going to benefit.

Don't get me wrong. I think that :47 was a good, solid pace. I just don't think it was a suicide pace that gave Zenyatta a big advantage.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

The splits in the classic were slow. No?

10fs at CD is a distance where I don't have pars to make a pace figure - it's not a commonly run distance.

But yeah, the 2000 Classic pace was certainly a lot slower than this years.

The 4th quarter fraction is often a pretty good tell in races at that distance. That's the part of the race where stretch runners need to start making up considerable ground. It's a hell of a lot easier a task for stretch runners when that 4th quarter is in 26 flat - when it's in 24 flat - they better have a rocket up their ass.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Don't get me wrong. I think that :47 was a good, solid pace. I just don't think it was a suicide pace that gave Zenyatta a big advantage.

The dynamics of the race were in her favor. That much is indisputable. Does it take away from her overall performance? Not really in my opinion but it's still a fact.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Did you read what he wrote? He bet closers, which obviously means he anticipated a strong pace that would favor late runners.

Is the crusade you're embarking on to get BTW or any other "hater" to admit that Zenyatta ran a better race than we might believe?

How exactly does one bet 'closers' in that race and leave Z out? I thought Fly Down would run a huge race. (I even suspected he'd change leads. ) I also thought that Blame was suspect going 10F and would get run down late by a 10F horse. I certainly didn't think that any of the speed would hold on OR that Looking at Lucky qualified as a 10F 'closer'.
Which doesn't really leave much else for the tri.

I ask the question again: how does one bet 'closers' and not include Z? Would that 'hater' thing come into play here?

I know one thing, BRO. If I'd have shot my mouth off for 6 months and it came down to my horse getting it done by a HEAD, I'd STFU. A HEAD, the (fortuitous) difference between SITTING on a DUNCE CAP or continuing on that Napoleonic path.

I'll be back tomorrow, maybe, for the 'coherent' reply. And I thought it couldn't get any worse than the POTN Derby SPIN.

ha ha ha

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

The dynamics of the race were in her favor. That much is indisputable. Does it take away from her overall performance? Not really in my opinion but it's still a fact.

I will ask you the same question that I asked BTW. You say, "The dynamics of the race were in her favor". Are you saying that in hindsight or would you have said that 5 minutes before the race if you knew that First Dude would have a 1 length lead in :47?

[Dahoss]

What a difference a head makes. When certain horses get beat a head they are getting bent over. Zenyatta is beat a head and those that correctly predicted the race are supposed to act like they were wrong? Interesting logic....even for a psycho.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I will ask you the same question that I asked BTW. You say, "The dynamics of the race were in her favor". Are you saying that in hindsight or would you have said that 5 minutes before the race if you knew that First Dude would have a 1 length lead in :47?

Who gives a s.hit what I would have said before the race? What I said before the race was I hope Blame wins. I thought he was going to get as good a pace setup as Zenyatta, had an advantage in terms of positional speed and I had no doubt he'd get 10fs. Thus, I bet Blame and Zenyatta (not a redboard).

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I will ask you the same question that I asked BTW. You say, "The dynamics of the race were in her favor". Are you saying that in hindsight or would you have said that 5 minutes before the race if you knew that First Dude would have a 1 length lead in :47?

There was only one other dirt route that day - the Juvenile at 8.5fs.

Boys at Tosconova has a triple digit Beyer at 5fs this year - Uncle Mo has a triple digit Beyer at 6fs this year - they went 6fs in the Juvenile in 1:11.92 ..

You really think a race at 10fs should have gone at a MUCH faster pace than that one at just 8.5?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Who gives a s.hit what I would have said before the race? What I said before the race was I hope Blame wins. I thought he was going to get as good a pace setup as Zenyatta, had an advantage in terms of positional speed and I had no doubt he'd get 10fs. Thus, I bet Blame and Zenyatta (not a redboard).

Well that means you made a good call. Nice work.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Who gives a s.hit what I would have said before the race? What I said before the race was I hope Blame wins. I thought he was going to get as good a pace setup as Zenyatta, had an advantage in terms of positional speed and I had no doubt he'd get 10fs. Thus, I bet Blame and Zenyatta (not a redboard).

I think Rupert's looking at some of the fractions posted in the one-turn races that day - and he's assuming they should translate to the two-turn routes. It doesn't work like that at some tracks.

There are some tracks - Saratoga for instance - where the paces in 6.5 furlong races are always much faster than the paces at 6fs and 5.5s. You could assemble the slowest NY breds around - and they have a shot at going 21 and change for a first quarter going 6.5f at Saratoga.

It's why you need pace figures - and it's why you should have pars for every single distance at the track.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

There was only one other dirt route that day - the Juvenile at 8.5fs.

Boys at Tosconova has a triple digit Beyer at 5fs this year - Uncle Mo has a triple digit Beyer at 6fs this year - they went 6fs in the Juvenile in 1:11.92 ..

You really think a race at 10fs should have gone at a MUCH faster pace than that one at just 8.5?

That's a good point. The 6fs in 1:11 is very solid.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think Rupert's looking at some of the fractions posted in the one-turn races that day - and he's assuming they should translate to the two-turn routes. It doesn't work like that at some tracks.

There are some tracks - Saratoga for instance - where the paces in 6.5 furlong races are always much faster than the paces at 6fs and 5.5s. You could assemble the slowest NY breds around - and they have a shot at going 21 and change for a first quarter going 6.5f at Saratoga.

It's why you need pace figures - and it's why you should have pars for every single distance at the track.

I would never compare the one-turn fractions to the two-turn fractions. I know you can't compare the two.

[Rupert Pupkin]

After further analysis, I think the pace was actually faster than I originally realized.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The 4th quarter fraction is often a pretty good tell in races at that distance. That's the part of the race where stretch runners need to start making up considerable ground. It's a hell of a lot easier a task for stretch runners when that 4th quarter is in 26 flat - when it's in 24 flat - they better have a rocket up their ass.

Captain Steve almost had that rocket in Tiznow's Classic.

In Awesome Again's Classic, the opening half went in 47 3/5. The remaining splits were 24 2/5, 25 1/5, 24 4/5. Awesome Again was 7th by 3-3/4 at the quarter pole.

[Indian Charlie]

All I can add is, if I had a horse, at just about any track, that went 111 for 3/4 in a 10f race, I'd cringe.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

All I can add is, if I had a horse, at just about any track, that went 111 for 3/4 in a 10f race, I'd cringe.

Maybe they were scared of Zenyatta and were trying to run away from her as fast as possible. It is believed by some that Quality Road acted up in the gate before last year's Classic because he didn't want to face her.