Overlays that got away??

[Pedigree Ann]

I forget the names and dates, but it was a couple of years ago at Fair Grounds. In handicapping a claiming race, I found a filly whose last two races were terrible, yet could be tossed out. She liked to run near or on the front and two back had been bumped hard out of the gate, forcing her to run out of her comfort zone. One back she had been entered way over her head and ran appropriately. Off her previous form, she should have been 5/1 or 6/1 at most. Then the only other speed horse in the race is a late scratch. Yet this filly is still 40/1 on the board! Being a total coward, I figured folks at the track knew more than I did, and only bet a small amount to show. She took the lead out of the gate and never looked back. Still kicking myself for missing such an incredible opportunity.

[FATPIANO]

Thunder Gulch in The Kentucky Derby

[Kingturf]

Cigar at 6-1 in the 95 Donn Handicap against Holy Bull who was coming off a 4 month layoff. Even though the Bull broke down, Cigar was fit enough to smoke him.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kingturf

Cigar at 6-1 in the 95 Donn Handicap against Holy Bull who was coming off a 4 month layoff. Even though the Bull broke down, Cigar was fit enough to smoke him.

He was 4:1.

But, you probably got 6:1.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Kingturf

Cigar at 6-1 in the 95 Donn Handicap against Holy Bull who was coming off a 4 month layoff. Even though the Bull broke down, Cigar was fit enough to smoke him.

Cigar was 4-1 and Holy Bull had started a few weeks before the Donn in the Olympic Handicap, not 4 months earlier.

[Kingturf]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He was 4:1.

But, you probably got 6:1.

*******...enough! You don't know me and I think you're a jerk.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Cigar was 4-1 and Holy Bull had started a few weeks before the Donn in the Olympic Handicap, not 4 months earlier.

Careful.....you might get outed.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kingturf

*******...enough! You don't know me and I think you're a jerk.

But I so want to get to know you.

[hi_im_god]

banks hill 6-1 in the 2001 bc fm turf. i think the chief knock was she had never run 10f. but she had won running uphill at 9f. she won by open lengths.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Shouldn't an overlay that got away be a horse that you just missed with at a fat price?

I wasn't born at the time - but this horse whos pp's I looked at yesterday kind of cries out for a thread like this ...



Horse wins an alw race at 5/2 at Santa Anita by 20 lengths - and is 48/1 in the San Felipe and just misses before confirming form at a shorter price in the SA Derby next out.

I don't think I ever recall seeing an alw race at Santa Anita won by 20 lengths before ... though - it was only a six horse field and over a sloppy track.

[Gate Dancer]

Top 4 for me are easy:

Invasor
Street Sense
Manila
Unbridled

[Clip-Clop]

Wilko BC Juvy
Singletary though someone mentioned him already
English Channel/Curlin Double at MTH
Barbaro for sure.
I was on SNS that day IC.

[Dunbar]

My worst "overlay that got away" was in the 2006 Ky Derby Future Wager, Pool 1. It was NOT Barbaro at 19-1; I wasn't at all tuned into Barbaro at that point. What I missed was "All Others" at 3-1, which I considered a huge overlay. On Saturday night the odds were sitting at 6-5, and I stopped paying attention. When I read that it closed at 3-1, I was shocked. Nevermind that it turned out to be a losing bet, I still think it was my worst "overlay that got away". (as DrugS pointed out, there is more than one way to interpret that title.) Ever since that blunder, I pay attention until the close of future pool betting.

Here are the final odds from that 2006 Pool:

A.P. Warrior 31.2
Achilles of Troy 26.2
Barbaro 19.1
Barbican 18.4
Blazing Rate 101.3
Bluegrass Cat 15.7
Bob and John 31.7
Brother Derek 16.5
Cause to Believe 59.3
Doctor Decherd 68.6
First Samurai 7.9
Flashy Bull 45.4
Half Ours 33.1
Henny Hughes 27.7
High Cotton 62.6
Itsallboutthechase 48.2
Keyed Entry 53.8
Lawyer Ron 21
Point Determined 18.9
Private Vow 14.3
Sorcerer's Stone 45.5
Stevie Wonderboy 8.2
Your Tent Or Mine 21.9
All Other 3YO's 3

My second-worst missed overlay was Volponi in 2002. In my line I had Volponi at 28-1 and posted elsewhere that I would bet him at 35-1 or more. Somehow I missed Volponi's 43-1 odds in all the excitement of getting my losing bets down on Milwaukee Brew and Macho Uno.

--Dunbar

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Here are the final odds from that 2006 Pool:

A.P. Warrior 31.2
Achilles of Troy 26.2
Barbaro 19.1
Barbican 18.4
Blazing Rate 101.3
Bluegrass Cat 15.7
Bob and John 31.7
Brother Derek 16.5
Cause to Believe 59.3
Doctor Decherd 68.6
First Samurai 7.9
Flashy Bull 45.4
Half Ours 33.1
Henny Hughes 27.7
High Cotton 62.6
Itsallboutthechase 48.2
Keyed Entry 53.8
Lawyer Ron 21
Point Determined 18.9
Private Vow 14.3
Sorcerer's Stone 45.5
Stevie Wonderboy 8.2
Your Tent Or Mine 21.9

Some of those are CLASSIC. Thanks for putting them up.

[iamthelurker]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

But I so want to get to know you.

HAHA be nice to the poor guy.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

All of the best overlays I ever got came in betting exchanges. I remember a few cases of horses I would have bet at their track odds of like 7/1 or 8/1 and I was able to secure as high as 20/1 or 25/1 for $20 or $30 or so... a lot of them didn't win - but it's still a big overlay.

Unless you're talking about debuters - To get big overlaid mutuals in the betting pools - you need one or two severely overbet short-priced horses. In the betting exchange - all it really can take is one guy to have a psycho strong opinion against a horse. The opposite can happen to ... I've seen horses win at 2/1 at the track who were even money or 6/5 in trading with good liquidity on both sides.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by golfer

In my opinion there is a very fine line between overlays and dead on the board, and you only know for sure which is which AFTER the race.

There's some truth to that. I've found myself saying both 'I can't believe that horse paid that much' and 'No wonder his odds were so high' in the same day.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

There's some truth to that. I've found myself saying both 'I can't believe that horse paid that much' and 'No wonder his odds were so high' in the same day.

pomeroy..

[hailrazer]

Expansion Saturday in Fair Grounds Handicap. 32-1 for Assmussen after being competitive against graded company for quite awhile. I had him in exactas with 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th place finishers but tossed eventual favorite and 2nd place finisher, Sleepless Knight. Got nosed out of $301 for a dollar exacta and had nothing to win on him....