Circular Quay

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by Nostradamus

That was my prediction. Tiz Wonderful is from somebody that knows what he is talking about.

I didn't see Tiz W run, so I have no opinion, but if they like him and unload, I wish them luck...

[Scurlogue Champ]

I hope he Tiz Fast, because that Coolmore horse keeps delivering when asked.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Hey I thought Tiz Wondeful was mine. Aw shucks, now I have to go find my own horse to tout, and when he loses, because he will, I'll need to blame it on something other than the fact that they aren't machines. Or maybe, just this time he was inferior.

I have more claim to Tiz Wonderful than you guys. I knew about him 6 months ago. I saw him work a 1/4 in :20 3/5 at the Fasig Tipton Calder Sale. It was the fastest work at the entire sale. He was easy money for me first-time out on Saturday. The price was a gift.

[Rupert Pupkin]

The best 2 year old colt of them all still hasn't run yet. It's a Red Bullet colt that Darley bought at the Barrett's May Sale for $2.5 million. Out of about 2000 or so 2 year olds that I watched work at diffrent sales this year, this one was easily the best. I don't know when he's going to run. I think he's in New York right now. I believe that Eion Harty trains him.

Rup,
How do you know that the works in the spring will translate to the track?
I'm not hearing very good things about the Green monkey(to say the least) and I guess it has me wondering.
What percentage of the exceptional workerse become great horses in your opinion?

Originally Posted by moodwalker

I hope he Tiz Fast, because that Coolmore horse keeps delivering when asked.

This rhymes. Cool. More.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

The best 2 year old colt of them all still hasn't run yet. It's a Red Bullet colt that Darley bought at the Barrett's May Sale for $2.5 million. Out of about 2000 or so 2 year olds that I watched work at diffrent sales this year, this one was easily the best. I don't know when he's going to run. I think he's in New York right now. I believe that Eion Harty trains him.

Oh yes, I agree. That horse is wonderful!!! I can't wait until he makes his debut. I believe that he'll blow all the other horses backwards from the sheer force of him taking off around the final turn on the track. Okay, maybe that's a bit of an exaggeration, but he is unbelievable, and if he starts enough times to get him ready the BC...that is my BC Juv. horse. He'll win first time out. I would also love to see that Indian Charlie colt start too. You know which one that I am talking about. Any news on him?

Oh yeah, the Red Bullet colt's name is Unbridled Slew. The Indian Charlie colt is called Past The Point. I'm not seeing workouts on either one.

[jpops757]

It sure is nice to here all this positive praise for various colts. Pne think i have to disagre about is the no tatical speed for CQ. When the button is pushed he is the fastest of all and I feel in a larger field he has enough speed to spot anywhere he wants. Granted his last two races he got left in the gate but I dont feel ths was by design. He has been trained to control his speed and that puts him way ahead of most right now. Isnt one of the top West coasters Cobalt Blue? Im not sure of the name but he has looked the best of the westcoasters to me.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by jpops757

It sure is nice to here all this positive praise for various colts. Pne think i have to disagre about is the no tatical speed for CQ. When the button is pushed he is the fastest of all and I feel in a larger field he has enough speed to spot anywhere he wants. Granted his last two races he got left in the gate but I dont feel ths was by design. He has been trained to control his speed and that puts him way ahead of most right now. Isnt one of the top West coasters Cobalt Blue? Im not sure of the name but he has looked the best of the westcoasters to me.

The best of the west right now is Principle's Secret. Great Hunter is also very good and EZ Warrior was very good, but has been injured. Cobalt Blue is racing against them over on the west coast so he is keeping top company. Jump On In and Point Ashley seem to be two of the best fillies. I'm still waiting for a few horses to start that are very, very talented.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Rup,
How do you know that the works in the spring will translate to the track?
I'm not hearing very good things about the Green monkey(to say the least) and I guess it has me wondering.
What percentage of the exceptional workerse become great horses in your opinion?

Exceptional workers in who's opinion? The horses that work the fastest are not necessarily good horses. If you just took the top 10 fastest workers at each sale, I don't think you would get a particularly high percenatge of stakes horses. You might get 10% or 15%. The way they move is more important than the time. If you have a horse that works fast and moves great, then there is a very good chance that he will be a stakes horse.

I think the percentage of stakes horses that I personally pick is very high. At a sale with 300 horses, there will usually be about 30 or so that I really like. I would say that about 70% of those horses on my list of 30 will break their maiden in either their first or second start. I would say that about 25% will be stakes horses. If I take my top 2-3 horses horses at the top 7 sales and make a list of my top 15-20 horses for the year, I think that close to 50% end up being stakes horses.

The Green Monkey was not one of my favorite horses. I thought he looked like he could run, but he wasn't even in my top 20 at that particular sale. I see horses go for $1 million that I wouldn't buy for $100,000. A good example is that horse Barbados. They paid $3 million for that horse. I didn't think that horse could run at all. It's all a matter of opinion. But some people's opinions are much better than others. Some people have a good eye and others do not. You have to know what you are doing. Believe it or not, there are plenty of people spening big money at sales that have no ability when it comes to picking out horses. Just because a guy is a decent trainer, it doesn't mean he will be a great scout.

Even if you are great at it, you will make mistakes sometimes. I picked about 20 horses at the Barrett's sale last year and I think 12 of them became stakes horses. That's the good news. The bad news is I missed both Henny Hughes and Brother Derek. Don't get me wrong. I thought they could both run. I made big bets on both of them first-time out. I liked them enough to bet but not quite enough to buy. Brother Derek just held his head a little too high for me. I can't remember what kept Henny Hughes off my list.

With regard to that Red Bullet colt that looked so good, I would say there is at least a 60% chance that he will be a stakes horse and that is being conservative. I think the chances are probably higher than that.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Oh yes, I agree. That horse is wonderful!!! I can't wait until he makes his debut. I believe that he'll blow all the other horses backwards from the sheer force of him taking off around the final turn on the track. Okay, maybe that's a bit of an exaggeration, but he is unbelievable, and if he starts enough times to get him ready the BC...that is my BC Juv. horse. He'll win first time out. I would also love to see that Indian Charlie colt start too. You know which one that I am talking about. Any news on him?

Oh yeah, the Red Bullet colt's name is Unbridled Slew. The Indian Charlie colt is called Past The Point. I'm not seeing workouts on either one.

I would not necessarily expect those two horses to keep those names. When horses are already named before a sale, the new owner will often times change the name.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Exceptional workers in whose opinion? The horses that work the fastest are not necessarily good horses. If you just took the top 10 fastest workers at each sale, I don't think you would get a particularly high percenatge of stakes horses. You might get 10% or 15%. The way they move is more important than the time. If you have a horse that works fast and moves great, then there is a very good chance that he will be a stakes horse.

I think the percentage of stakes horses that I personally pick is very high. At a sale with 300 horses, there will usually be about 30 or so that I really like. I would say that about 70% of those horses on my list of 30 will break their maiden in either their first or second start. I would say that about 25% will be stakes horses. If I take my top 2-3 horses horses at the top 7 sales and make a list of my top 15-20 horses for the year, I think that close to 50% end up being stakes horses.

The Green Monkey was not one of my favorite horses. I thought he looked like he could run, but he wasn't even in my top 20 at that particular sale. I see horses go for $1 million that I wouldn't buy for $100,000. A good example is that horse Barbados. They paid $3 million for that horse. I didn't think that horse could run at all. It's all a matter of opinion. But some people's opinions are much better than others. Some people have a good eye and others do not. You have to know what you are doing. Believe it or not, there are plenty of people spening big money at sales that have no ability when it comes to picking out horses. Just because a guy is a decent trainer, it doesn't mean he will be a great scout.

Even if you are great at it, you will make mistakes sometimes. I picked about 20 horses at the Barrett's sale last year and I think 12 of them became stakes horses. That's the good news. The bad news is I missed both Henny Hughes and Brother Derek. Don't get me wrong. I thought they could both run. I made big bets on both of them first-time out. I liked them enough to bet but not quite enough to buy. Brother Derek just held his head a little too high for me. I can't remember what kept Henny Hughes off my list.

With regard to that Red Bullet colt that looked so good, I would say there is at least a 60% chance that he will be a stakes horse and that is being conservative. I think the chances are probably higher than that.

Thanks Rupert. That was a great and educational response.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I would not necessarily expect those two horses to keep those names. When horses are already named before a sale, the new owner will often times change the name.

The Past the Point colt is listed in the DRF although he doesn't have any workouts. The Red Bullet colt isn't listed. I really like that name though. Unbridled Slew. I hope he keeps it.

Rupert I will ask my clocker if hes seen this horse work. Do you remember what he looks like? Color and any markings that distinguish him?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Rupert I will ask my clocker if hes seen this horse work. Do you remember what he looks like? Color and any markings that distinguish him?

The Red Bullet was a chestnut colt with some white on his face. He is out of a mare named Sookloozy. I know they shipped him to NY after the sale but he could be on the farm right now for all I know.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

The Red Bullet was a chestnut colt with some white on his face. He is out of a mare named Sookloozy. I know they shipped him to NY after the sale but he could be on the farm right now for all I know.

Well that will make it easy enough. I'll ask him if hes seen a Harty chestnut with white on the face. Those chestnuts stand out pretty good. I'll let you know if he has seen him or if not, when he actually does Rupert.

[lemoncrush]

I fell for this horse after re-watching his debut race a few times, and he just keeps on impressing me. It's just too bad that he and Scat Daddy were coupled yesterday, instead of separate entries.
I was worried when Bejarano got hurt that the new jock might screw this horse up, but when Gomez jumped on, I was relieved.
I'm just excited to see a horse that reminds me (and so many others) of Afleet Alex with his push-button speed and modest pedigree.

If someone other than Prime Ruler wins the Del Mar Futurity, CQ will be your early odds-on favorite for the 2007 Kentucy Derby futures when they come out next month (for better or worse).

[jpops757]

Rupert, when you evaluate a sale . Do you make a list of the top ones and rate it best to worst or is it a process of puttig a dollar value on a hip and advise to buy as long as the hip is under your evaluation? Your evaluations are very astute and would love to here more when posible. Im just an old retired firefigher but i envy someone like you that can see more that time and distance. Keep the good post comming.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by jpops757

Rupert, when you evaluate a sale . Do you make a list of the top ones and rate it best to worst or is it a process of puttig a dollar value on a hip and advise to buy as long as the hip is under your evaluation? Your evaluations are very astute and would love to here more when posible. Im just an old retired firefigher but i envy someone like you that can see more that time and distance. Keep the good post comming.

I don't really make a list of best to worst. I just make a list of the horses I like. At the great sales like FT Feb, Bar Mar, Ocala Feb and March, somewhere around 10-15% of the horses will make my list. At a lesser sale like Ocala April, only about 5% will make my list.

My trainer makes his own list and then we compare our lists. If I have 30 horses on my list and he has about 30 on his list, I would expect that about 20 of them will match. We usually like a lot of the same horses. If we agree on 20 of them, then he will go over these 20 in person with a fine-tooth comb. He will actually kneel down like a catcher and feel their tendons. You would think that most trainers would do this but I hardly see any trainers do this at the sales. anyway, after he's done examing them, the list is usually cut by half and maybe even more for either soundness issues or poor conformation. Let's say our final list is down to 9 horses. At that point, we call our vet and have him go over the horses with a fine-tooth comb. he will scope each horse and go over the x-rays of each horse. The vet will often times not like the x-rays or he may not like the way the horse scopes. After he's done, our list will probably be down to 4 or 5 horses. At that point, we decide how high we want to go on each horse. We may end up buying one or two horses or we may end up getting outbid for every horse. I think Point Ashley was the only horse we ended up bidding on at the Keeneland Sale. We stopped at about $400,000 and she ended up selling for about $725,000.

We only bid on one horse at the Barrett's May Sale. He was a Tribal Rule gelding so we weren't going to go too high. We went up to $100,00 and he sold for $110,000. After watching his training video a few more times the next day, I called my trainer and told him that we made a mistake and that we should have gone higher. Sure enough, the horse won easily when he made his debut at Del Mar. His name is Indian Ashton. He was a real bargain for $110,000.

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I don't really make a list of best to worst. I just make a list of the horses I like. At the great sales like FT Feb, Bar Mar, Ocala Feb and March, somewhere around 10-15% of the horses will make my list. At a lesser sale like Ocala April, only about 5% will make my list.

My trainer makes his own list and then we compare our lists. If I have 30 horses on my list and he has about 30 on his list, I would expect that about 20 of them will match. We usually like a lot of the same horses. If we agree on 20 of them, then he will go over these 20 in person with a fine-tooth comb. He will actually kneel down like a catcher and feel their tendons. You would think that most trainers would do this but I hardly see any trainers do this at the sales. anyway, after he's done examing them, the list is usually cut by half and maybe even more for either soundness issues or poor conformation. Let's say our final list is down to 9 horses. At that point, we call our vet and have him go over the horses with a fine-tooth comb. he will scope each horse and go over the x-rays of each horse. The vet will often times not like the x-rays or he may not like the way the horse scopes. After he's done, our list will probably be down to 4 or 5 horses. At that point, we decide how high we want to go on each horse. We may end up buying one or two horses or we may end up getting outbid for every horse. I think Point Ashley was the only horse we ended up bidding on at the Keeneland Sale. We stopped at about $400,000 and she ended up selling for about $725,000.

We only bid on one horse at the Barrett's May Sale. He was a Tribal Rule gelding so we weren't going to go too high. We went up to $100,00 and he sold for $110,000. After watching his training video a few more times the next day, I called my trainer and told him that we made a mistake and that we should have gone higher. Sure enough, the horse won easily when he made his debut at Del Mar. His name is Indian Ashton. He was a real bargain for $110,000.

rupert..you strictly a 2YO guy or do you shop yearlings as well? Just curious.