Goldikova: Lost a step or as good as ever?

[robfla]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I have tossed her the last 2 years.

and what did the P4 pay last year with her and Blame in it?

Do you really want to miss hitting the P4 by missing her leg? I don't

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I have tossed her the last 2 years.

and the Pk-3s surrounding her have paid handsomely.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by robfla

and what did the P4 pay last year with her and Blame in it?

Do you really want to miss hitting the P4 by missing her leg? I don't

I said pick 3's. I get what your saying.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

all I'm getting at, is I don't wanna get beat by her. I don't wanna be wrong in that race by leaving her out. Even if she's over-bet. Will I single her? Hell no. But you gotta have her on your tickets I think, because you'll feel dumb about it after if you don't.

Sucks too, because as fun as she is to watch, the Mile you could argue was always crazy for long-shots and unpredictability. I'm still scratching my head on how the Rock lost that race years ago. But on the flip side, I had Singletary.

I'll single her in the multi race bets and go deeper elsewhere. I also come up with some strategy to key her UNDER on the verticals. You don't have to spend a whole lot to accomplish a decent hedge with dime supers and $.50 trifecta wagering- unless you think she's off the board. Last year, with the popular Gio Ponti 2nd, you had a $589 ($1) super and $250 tri ($2). But two years ago you had a $705 tri and a $6,628 ($1) super - dont forget Courageous Cat.

I think spreading out the pick 4 in the mile is a waste. Even if she loses, I don't know who is going to do it and it would cost me a fortune to get as deep as I would want to be with her out.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

To my untrained eye, it looks like she's lost a step or two this year. It isn't just that she's lost a couple but how she's lost them. But you also have to look at who she's lost to and there is nobody of that caliber in here so her lost step or two or even three should still be more than enough to overwhelm this group. As long as she has a good trip and runs her race, I don't see her losing and if she is to lose, it won't be because someone was better than her.

In one step, you say you have an untrained eye, and also assert the caliber of her competition here is weaker...can't have it both ways.

I'm absolutely, 100% confident in stating that from top to bottom (that includes Compliance Officer), the collection of horses in the BC Mile are better than any of the individual fields she faced this year...all of them. While there may have been one or two very good horses she went up against this year, there are 9 Grade/Group 1 winners in the field.

There are some pretty unaccomplished plodders that make up the also-rans in her other races. Dream Ahead, who beat her last time, ran her down to get up, had two fifth place finishes in attempts over more than 6 furlongs, beaten 12 lengths. The Prix Foret was his first win beyond 6, and the third place finisher was making his fourth lifetime start off a 173 day layoff.

Again, not going out on a crazy limb here, I'm including her, and won't be shocked with a win, but a loss is WAY more likely in this field, this year, now more than ever...This is absolutely the best field she's seen this year, and would argue, in any of her previous BC Mile appearances.

[RockHardTen1985]

Well said Pat.

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

In one step, you say you have an untrained eye, and also assert the caliber of her competition here is weaker...can't have it both ways.

I'm absolutely, 100% confident in stating that from top to bottom (that includes Compliance Officer), the collection of horses in the BC Mile are better than any of the individual fields she faced this year...all of them. While there may have been one or two very good horses she went up against this year, there are 9 Grade/Group 1 winners in the field.

There are some pretty unaccomplished plodders that make up the also-rans in her other races. Dream Ahead, who beat her last time, ran her down to get up, had two fifth place finishes in attempts over more than 6 furlongs, beaten 12 lengths. The Prix Foret was his first win beyond 6, and the third place finisher was making his fourth lifetime start off a 173 day layoff.

Again, not going out on a crazy limb here, I'm including her, and won't be shocked with a win, but a loss is WAY more likely in this field, this year, now more than ever...This is absolutely the best field she's seen this year, and would argue, in any of her previous BC Mile appearances.

Pat, I think youre doing Dream Ahead a bit of disservice there. He's a 5 time G1 winner, champion sprinter and I would easily forgive him the 2 other poor runs at 7f+ this year (plus this race is run at slightly less than 7f!). They also finished miles clear of the 3rd , it was a quality performance by both and I couldnt say at all that she has lost a step. This certainly in my opinion was her best prep race for the BC Mile than her 3 previous victories..

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by brockguy

Pat, I think youre doing Dream Ahead a bit of disservice there. He's a 5 time G1 winner, champion sprinter and I would easily forgive him the 2 other poor runs at 7f+ this year (plus this race is run at slightly less than 7f!). They also finished miles clear of the 3rd , it was a quality performance by both and I couldnt say at all that she has lost a step. This certainly in my opinion was her best prep race for the BC Mile than her 3 previous victories..

I don't think I'm doing a disservice to Dream Ahead...a very quality animal. A great value in that race, and a horse who is one to look forward to when back next year.

I think you have to question the balance of her competition.

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

I don't think I'm doing a disservice to Dream Ahead...a very quality animal. A great value in that race, and a horse who is one to look forward to when back next year.

I think you have to question the balance of her competition.

hmm I dont know.

First time out - beats the most underrated horse in the world Cirrus Des Aigles by a cosy neck, everyone said it was a disappointing performance but this fella has been insane since (he is a personal fav of mine!)

Royal Ascot - Peslier puts up 2 pounds overweight (simply unforgivable) and goes down by a length to Canford Cliffs, a top miler (well 2nd to Frankel!)

Prix Rothschild - this is the race she always seems to win, won cosily from Sahpresa, she is never impressive in this race but beat a decent filly.

Prix Jacques le Marois - beaten by Immortal Verse who was impressive on that day, readily took care of Goldi. OK this run wasnt great, but she lost in much more devesating fashion to Makfi in that same race last year.

Foret - beaten by the champion sprinter on her prep for this race. Smashing run.

I know you're only giving your opinion on it but I dont think she's lost a step and the runs this year wouldnt put me off.

and I think Dream Ahead has been retired which is such a shame...

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by brockguy

hmm I dont know.

First time out - beats the most underrated horse in the world Cirrus Des Aigles by a cosy neck, everyone said it was a disappointing performance but this fella has been insane since (he is a personal fav of mine!)

Royal Ascot - Peslier puts up 2 pounds overweight (simply unforgivable) and goes down by a length to Canford Cliffs, a top miler (well 2nd to Frankel!)

Prix Rothschild - this is the race she always seems to win, won cosily from Sahpresa, she is never impressive in this race but beat a decent filly.

Prix Jacques le Marois - beaten by Immortal Verse who was impressive on that day, readily took care of Goldi. OK this run wasnt great, but she lost in much more devesating fashion to Makfi in that same race last year.

Foret - beaten by the champion sprinter on her prep for this race. Smashing run.

I know you're only giving your opinion on it but I dont think she's lost a step and the runs this year wouldnt put me off.

and I think Dream Ahead has been retired which is such a shame...

My friend, you're missing the point. She faces one or two decent horses per race in France...this year's BC Mile will be unlike any other race in terms of overall quality, mostly because the Euros coming are way better.

Byword showed he is back with the Longchamp win, subsequently franked, and unlike Paco Boy last year, Strong Suit has been pointed to this since the Ascot win. The others from last year, Beethoven and Delegator weren't legit contenders. Gio Ponti, Turallure, a 2011 Courageous Cat...all realistic threats.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Toss. She can beat me again I guess.

This is one reason I'm glad you're back. Right or wrong, there is no waffling by you.

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

My friend, you're missing the point. She faces one or two decent horses per race in France...this year's BC Mile will be unlike any other race in terms of overall quality, mostly because the Euros coming are way better.

Byword showed he is back with the Longchamp win, subsequently franked, and unlike Paco Boy last year, Strong Suit has been pointed to this since the Ascot win. The others from last year, Beethoven and Delegator weren't legit contenders. Gio Ponti, Turallure, a 2011 Courageous Cat...all realistic threats.

Well I think they are related slightly but I disagree with you on the field issue. I wouldn't trust Byword whatsoever over a mile.. He needed every yard of the 10f to wear down Cirrus and just simply won't live with Goldi over 8..

Strong Suit is dangerous and the only danger I see - he'll probably get the Mile in the States but talk of him making all in the race will be a disaster. If they do run him to play to his strengths I think he will run a slightly better race than Paco Boy did last year.

Of the Americans, I don't think they are not threats (and I have watched their races!!!)

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

To my untrained eye, it looks like she's lost a step or two this year. It isn't just that she's lost a couple but how she's lost them. But you also have to look at who she's lost to and there is nobody of that caliber in here so her lost step or two or even three should still be more than enough to overwhelm this group. As long as she has a good trip and runs her race, I don't see her losing and if she is to lose, it won't be because someone was better than her.

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

She may have lost a step, but this may be the weakest field she has faced.

She doesn't need her absolute best to win it.

Agree with both of you...

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by robfla

and what did the P4 pay last year with her and Blame in it?

Do you really want to miss hitting the P4 by missing her leg? I don't

I tossed Blame 2 LOL.
Remember I was a big Quality Road guy, I used him and big Z.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by DaTruth

This is one reason I'm glad you're back. Right or wrong, there is no waffling by you.

To be honest I have been cold since after week 1 of Toga. My entire handle for the BC program might be under $150. My opinion has sucked latley, check out todays selection thread. Goldi will likely win easily and Ill rip up my 5-4-3 $60 pick 3.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I tossed Blame 2 LOL.
Remember I was a big Quality Road guy, I used him and big Z.

ahh.......... I'm sure everyone remembers the I had a dream thread.
Those were the good ole days.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

ahh.......... I'm sure everyone remembers the I had a dream thread.
Those were the good ole days.

His Classic run was bad. My dream may have put the mush on him.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

I'm absolutely, 100% confident in stating that from top to bottom (that includes Compliance Officer), the collection of horses in the BC Mile are better than any of the individual fields she faced this year...all of them.

One example of why I disagree...

Ascot Result
14 Jun 2011
2:30 » Queen Anne Stakes (British Champions' Series) (Group 1)

« 1 6 Canford Cliffs (IRE) 11/8 4 9-0 Richard Hannon 127 * * »
b c Tagula (IRE) - Mrs Marsh (Marju) Richard Hughes
Steadied after start, took keen hold early, held up in last trio, headway to track leaders entering final 2f, ridden to challenge entering final furlong, led final 100yds, ran on well (tchd 6-5 and 6-4 in places)


« 2 1 1 Goldikova (IRE) 5/4F 6 8-132 F Head 125 * * »
b m Anabaa (USA) - Born Gold (USA) (Blushing Groom) Olivier Peslier
Tracked leaders, headway to press leader going well over 2f out, ridden to lead over 1f out, hard pressed entering final furlong, driven and battled on gamely until headed and no extra final 100yds, eased near finish (op 6-4 tchd 13-8 in places)


« 3 3 1¾ Cityscape 14/1 5 9-0 Roger Charlton 119 * * »
ch h Selkirk (USA) - Tantina (USA) (Distant View) Ryan Moore
Held up in touch in rear, ridden and effort to chase leaders well over 1f out, driven and pressed leading pair 1f out, no extra and outpaced final 100yds (op 12-1 tchd 16-1 in places)


« 4 7 2¼ Rio De La Plata (USA) 25/1 6 9-0 Saeed Bin Suroor 120 * * »
ch h Rahy (USA) - Express Way (ARG) (Ahmad) Frankie Dettori
Steadied start, took keen hold early, held up in last trio, smooth headway to lead over 2f out, ridden and headed over 1f out, driven entering final furlong, weakened final 150yds (op 20-1)


« 5 5 6 Ransom Note 50/1 4 9-0 B W Hills 114 * * »
b c Red Ransom (USA) - Zacheta (Polish Precedent) Michael Hills
Chased leaders, niggled along after 2f, ridden and struggling entering final 2f, weakened over 1f out (op 66-1 tchd 80-1 in a place)


« 6 4 5 Cape Blanco (IRE) 8/1 4 9-0 A P O'Brien 122 * * »
ch c Galileo (IRE) - Laurel Delight (Presidium) Jamie Spencer
Led until driven and headed entering final 3f, soon dropped out under pressure, well behind over 1f out (tchd 9-1 and 10-1 in places)


« 7 2 6 Flash Dance (IRE) 100/1 5 8-11 F Head 104 * * »
ch m Zamindar (USA) - Resquilleuse (USA) (Dehere) Mickael Barzalona
Chased leader until led entering

[NTamm1215]

The field she faced in 2008 was atrocious. Kip Deville was the 2nd choice off an inexplicable 5th place finish in the Woodbine Mile. Whatsthescript was the 3rd choice and was coming in off a 60 day layoff. The rest of the field was highlighted by Shakis, Daytona, and Precious Kitten. The utterly impossible US Ranger was only 17-1.

The 2009 field had a ton of speed and the biggest question was whether she was going to be able to stay as close as she did in 2008 and be successful. Of course, she proved in that race that you can put her anywhere and she'll be fine. With Delegator and Zacinto running so poorly the competition was weak when push came to shove.

Proviso and Sidney's Candy took serious money last year. A filly who had been fortunate to win one time after another against her own sex and a one-time turf winner coming in off a nearly 90 day layoff who had missed his prep. Paco Boy was a horse whose measure she simply had and Gio Ponti was never going to make up the ground Dominguez asked him to that day.

A healthy Courageous Cat, a razor sharp Turallure, and Gio Ponti off his best effort of 2011 prove a formidable threat and that's not even touching on Strong Suit and Byword. This may not be the toughest group she's faced in the BC but it sure as hell isn't the easiest.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

One example of why I disagree...

Ascot Result
14 Jun 2011
2:30 » Queen Anne Stakes (British Champions' Series) (Group 1)

« 1 6 Canford Cliffs (IRE) 11/8 4 9-0 Richard Hannon 127 * * »
b c Tagula (IRE) - Mrs Marsh (Marju) Richard Hughes
Steadied after start, took keen hold early, held up in last trio, headway to track leaders entering final 2f, ridden to challenge entering final furlong, led final 100yds, ran on well (tchd 6-5 and 6-4 in places)


« 2 1 1 Goldikova (IRE) 5/4F 6 8-132 F Head 125 * * »
b m Anabaa (USA) - Born Gold (USA) (Blushing Groom) Olivier Peslier
Tracked leaders, headway to press leader going well over 2f out, ridden to lead over 1f out, hard pressed entering final furlong, driven and battled on gamely until headed and no extra final 100yds, eased near finish (op 6-4 tchd 13-8 in places)


« 3 3 1¾ Cityscape 14/1 5 9-0 Roger Charlton 119 * * »
ch h Selkirk (USA) - Tantina (USA) (Distant View) Ryan Moore
Held up in touch in rear, ridden and effort to chase leaders well over 1f out, driven and pressed leading pair 1f out, no extra and outpaced final 100yds (op 12-1 tchd 16-1 in places)


« 4 7 2¼ Rio De La Plata (USA) 25/1 6 9-0 Saeed Bin Suroor 120 * * »
ch h Rahy (USA) - Express Way (ARG) (Ahmad) Frankie Dettori
Steadied start, took keen hold early, held up in last trio, smooth headway to lead over 2f out, ridden and headed over 1f out, driven entering final furlong, weakened final 150yds (op 20-1)


« 5 5 6 Ransom Note 50/1 4 9-0 B W Hills 114 * * »
b c Red Ransom (USA) - Zacheta (Polish Precedent) Michael Hills
Chased leaders, niggled along after 2f, ridden and struggling entering final 2f, weakened over 1f out (op 66-1 tchd 80-1 in a place)


« 6 4 5 Cape Blanco (IRE) 8/1 4 9-0 A P O'Brien 122 * * »
ch c Galileo (IRE) - Laurel Delight (Presidium) Jamie Spencer
Led until driven and headed entering final 3f, soon dropped out under pressure, well behind over 1f out (tchd 9-1 and 10-1 in places)


« 7 2 6 Flash Dance (IRE) 100/1 5 8-11 F Head 104 * * »
ch m Zamindar (USA) - Resquilleuse (USA) (Dehere) Mickael Barzalona
Chased leader until led entering

You don't think this year's BC Mile field is better? Sure, there might not be a better horse than Canford Cliffs but the rest of that field was hardly stellar when you consider Cape Blanco was going 2-3 furlongs short of his best and needed Lasix.