Breeders Cup Handicapping Thoughts.

[parsixfarms]

3YO fillies seem to have Distaff at their mercy. Return to two turns after premature move in Beldame probably makes Royal Delta, reportedly one of the week's training stars, the horse to beat. Of the older fillies, Pachattack handled dirt in Personal Ensign and has figures fast enough to be competitive. With others in here doing the dirty work, she could get a good trip and hit the board at an overlaid price.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

3YO fillies seem to have Distaff at their mercy. Return to two turns after premature move in Beldame probably makes Royal Delta, reportedly one of the week's training stars, the horse to beat. Of the older fillies, Pachattack handled dirt in Personal Ensign and has figures fast enough to be competitive. With others in here doing the dirty work, she could get a good trip and hit the board at an overlaid price.

Miss Match has been oddly campaigned this year, yet ran a couple of decent races alongside Switch (for what that's worth). Her last pair of races, both against males, cloud her form.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

http://hoovescapping.blogspot.com/

dont have time for friday but saturdays up for those who care..good luck at the bc

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Miss Match has been oddly campaigned this year, yet ran a couple of decent races alongside Switch (for what that's worth). Her last pair of races, both against males, cloud her form.

I don't disagree with your points, and Drysdale has excellent record in Cup. I just get the sense that, for her to win, there would have to be a complete meltdown, and horses like Royal Delta and Pachattack, who would ordinarily have first run on her, would have to not show up. I think she is entirely plausible as an "underneath" horse.

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I agree that Tanda makes a lot of sense in here, but I doubt her final odds are anything close to ridiculous morning line. Best fig came on dirt in Acorn (after dreadful start from rail), and she finally returns to that surface during what looks like improving form cycle since trainer change to Mitchell. While I respect Switch, I just get the feeling that she's going the wrong way (after two odds-on defeats in a row). Turbulent Descent fires every time, and 7F is probably her best distance. My gut says that Great Hot is better on dirt than synthetic, and and 7F also hits her between the eyes. She might be a live longshot.

This.

[wild barry]

Originally Posted by Linny

I'm digging through the FM Sprint now and I think that even if Switch or TD win (I prefer the former) the underneath spots could be filled by bombs. The tri's could be rich. Tanda and Tamarind Hall are interesting to me in underneath spots.

Since I'm a TRI/SPR player I'm also planning on using Shumoos in the Juv. Sprint. This is a dirt bred filly who has only run on grass and poly. Opinions?

I give Shumoos a good chance. I have seen alot of Distorted Humor offspring run very well at Churchill Downs. Good Luck.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by wild barry

I give Shumoos a good chance. I have seen alot of Distorted Humor offspring run very well at Churchill Downs. Good Luck.

I have heard more this week about how certain Sires produce runners that run well at CD.
I believe in pedigree angles a much as anyone but, isn't this going a little too far.

[Linny]

DH was better at CD than elsewhere but I was mainly noting that this filly has a dirt pedigree and yet has never run over it.

[dino]

Maybe Andy wants to throw in his well respected 2 cents.

[RockHardTen1985]

Dougie finish this up.....

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by dino

Maybe Andy wants to throw in his well respected 2 cents.

Thursday we'll be adding two new Breeders' Cup preview shows to our vimeo channel with handicapping insight from our hosts Jason Blewitt, Richard Migliore and Andy Serling. Be sure to check it out! http://vimeo.com/channels/tnnr

Thats off the NYRA facebook page.

[Calzone Lord]

Filly and Mare Turf:

I believe the post draw is very important on the turf at Churchill. I've seen the data going back 20-years and a wide draw hurts a lot more on this turf course than most others ... nevermind what happened last year when the course was slick and some Euro's complained about it. 20-years of data trumps one weekend worth.

I believe Misty For Me (10/1 on the ML) is clearly the best horse in this race. She's also the type of horse who improves coming to America from Europe. Her drawing post 12 in an absolute buzzkill in a 3-turn race, with a short run to the first turn, over this particular course.

Nahrain and Announce are the two Euro's who are taking all the support in Europe and will get bet here. Based on how I evalute Euro races -- they are exiting a dogsh!t race. It was a very slow G1 race IMO relative to course speed.

Also -- take a quick look at Nahrain's form. She makes her career debut just 5.5 months ago and goes off at 5/1 -- wins by just over a length over a horse who is still a maiden today. She's odds-on in non-Graded events 2nd and 3rd out -- wins both. She was only 3/1 in the De La Opera -- and she won it in a slow time of 2:02 3/5 (the Arc was run in course record time that day)

The two adopted-American horses Stacelita and Dubawai Heights both won the draw getting the rail and the 2 slot.

The draw made this a very annoying race and I'm probably just going to spread here (only eliminating the 10 and 11) and hope for Chaos like last years edition when Shared Account saved all the ground and won at 47/1.



Ladies Classic:

Plum Pretty's 108 Beyer stands out like a sore thumb -- but it was earned over a VERY speed favoring racetrack that was initally labeled "good" -- was changed to "wet fast" and finally just "fast" by the middle of the card.

Virtually everything that led after a half mile won that day -- the lone exception being Flor De Amelia in the 8th race -- who failed to cash in on a loose lead and finished 2nd. She was 6th at 4-to-5 odds next time out.

The horse who stalked Plum Pretty at Philly was soundly defeated as a 4-to-5 favorite in a stakes race at Belmont as well.

It's Tricky is a very nice horse -- but she flopped the only two times she left the NYRA circuit.

I like Royal Delta to win this. Will be using Pacattack and Ask The Moon with her.



Marathon:

Giant Oak ran a very poor race at Hawthorne last time out. Sure, he was wide, but I felt that was a dead-rail day and he was on the best part of the track. Note how many horses who raced on the rail at HAW that day have improved greatly next out.

A. U. Minor should get Borel on the board. He made up a ton of ground in the final furlong of the Jockey Club Gold Cup -- he will get pace here.



Juvie Turf:


A couple of pretty strong contenders got hurt by the draw --- something tells me I won't be getting the 15-to-1 morning line on Furrajj. He looks like the best chance of the Euro's to me.

Note that Caspar Netcher was defeated twice (both times as a favorite) in his only two attempts at racing around a turn. Certainly his best races have all come over straight-away courses.


Sprint:


Apriority (30-to-1 on the ML) is 7-4-3-0 lifetime on fast dirt --- he's 8-0-3-0 lifetime on every other kind of surface.

He was a monster in Florida but has travelled all year and played plenty of road games... going to Santa Anita, Churchill, Aqu, Saratoga, and Belmont. I think he projects a perfect stalking trip with Rosario and hopefully he will recapture his best form with a good trip over a fast track. That 113 Beyer race from winter wins this.

Jackson Bend becomes the horse if the track is wet. I love his breeding for off-track and he ran huge last time out.

Not a fan of cutting back to 6fs off such an extremely slow paced mile race -- generally speaking, big cutbacks have a lot more success off of faster paced longer races. His Churchill Downs form is also a worry. He ran perhaps the two worst races of his life over CD.



Turf Sprint:

Perfect Officer wants 5 furlongs and he's drawn well in sharp form. I'll take that 12-to-1 ML on what -- to me -- looks like the most likely winner in this miserable race.



More later.

[VOL JACK]

A lot of good info there.

I just think the deck was really stacked against It's Tricky both times she left NY.

I have gave up on Apriority...I needed him to get his nose in front on Sunshine Million day and Derby Day. I am chalking his 113 Beyer to one of those Gulfstream Beyers that horses never seem to repeat.

[MaTH716]

I think Ultra Blend is interesting in the Ladies Classic.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

I have gave up on Apriority...I needed him to get his nose in front on Sunshine Million day and Derby Day.

I heard a few minutes ago from someone at Churchill that two different clockers think he might be lame and he was one of the strongest negative touts of clockers.

Maybe all the traveling and excellent races he ran earlier in the year have caught up to him.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I think Ultra Blend is interesting in the Ladies Classic.

She got a tremendous pace setup in there -- but yeah -- she's a threat to get a piece IMO.

Old Marty Wolfson's Ask The Moon -- according to pace figures -- is loose on the lead in the Distaff. If Plum Pretty wasn't so sharp right now -- I'd have taken ATM to wire them. I doubt PP lets her get loose though.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

She got a tremendous pace setup in there -- but yeah -- she's a threat to get a piece IMO.

Old Marty Wolfson's Ask The Moon -- according to pace figures -- is loose on the lead in the Distaff. If Plum Pretty wasn't so sharp right now -- I'd have taken ATM to wire them. I doubt PP lets her get loose though.

Not that I think she has a chance, but I could see P Val pressing the pace with Medaglia D' Amour (Blinks On) also. I just think the race could melt down late and someone like Ultra Blend will be picking up the pieces late.

[hockey2315]

Friday thoughts: http://thetdnblog.blogspot.com/2011/...is-friday.html

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Friday thoughts: http://thetdnblog.blogspot.com/2011/...is-friday.html

Good work brother. Already read it. Got the link off FB.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I heard a few minutes ago from someone at Churchill that two different clockers think he might be lame and he was one of the strongest negative touts of clockers.

Maybe all the traveling and excellent races he ran earlier in the year have caught up to him.

Didn't he run and/or train with an aluminum pad or bar shoe at Saratoga this summer? I haven't seen any such notation in any of the PPs this week. I, too, like his "fast" track form and believe that 6F is his best distance, but I sense his recent efforts may be as much about him going the wrong way as it is him disliking the wet tracks.