Derby replaces graded earnings with point system

[Rudeboyelvis]

So none of the races at Saratoga, including the Hopeful, matter? Wow.

At least that ridiculous Delta Jackpot is no longer a free pass.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I hadn't thought of the filly angle. Not sure I like that.

Just off the top of my head, a few horses who wouldn't have been in the starting gate in recent years if this system were in place would include Homeboykris and Trinneberg.

Mine That Bird never would have got in on that point system.

War Emblem would have had 0 points coming into the Derby if the Illi Derby doesn't count.

Arazi never would have made it in -- the Breeders Cup Juvie is only 10 points.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

On second glance, this system needs some serious tweaking.

What do you expect from them?

Justin Dew is probably the sharpest and most competent person employed by Churchill Downs in the last 25 years.

[slotdirt]

And I noticed a tweet from Justin Dew directed at the Derby inquiring about the Illinois Derby exclusion.

[slotdirt]

Others who wouldn't have made the starting gate:

Sea Hero
Charismatic (24 points - 40 points is the expected cutoff)
Giacomo

[NTamm1215]

By my quick calculations, this is what the 2012 Derby field would have looked like using this system:

I'll Have Another 110
Bodemeister 120
Dullahan 111
Went the Day Well 50
Creative Cause 102
Liaison 12
Union Rags 84
Rousing Sermon 26
Hansen 100
Daddy Nose Best 60
Optimizer 23
Alpha 54
El Padrino 62
Done Talking 1? (I think they accidentally omitted the Ill Derby)
Sabercat 30
Gemologist 110
Trinniberg 0
Prospective 64
Take Charge Indy 101
Daddy Long Legs 100

[Travis Stone]

It's not perfect, and there are likely a few tweaks to follow, but in my opinion this shows how horse racing can better market itself without having to spend millions of dollars to do so. The "phases" stuff is a bit abstract, but the concept has a lot of potential.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

By my quick calculations, this is what the 2012 Derby field would have looked like using this system:

I'll Have Another 110
Bodemeister 120
Dullahan 111
Went the Day Well 50
Creative Cause 102
Liaison 12
Union Rags 84
Rousing Sermon 26
Hansen 100
Daddy Nose Best 60
Optimizer 23
Alpha 54
El Padrino 62
Done Talking 1? (I think they accidentally omitted the Ill Derby)
Sabercat 30
Gemologist 110
Trinniberg 0
Prospective 64
Take Charge Indy 101
Daddy Long Legs 100

If you look at it this way it looks pretty good, just eliminating hopeless horses. This system will make the last 2 major preps in CA, NY, FL,ARK, and LA have large loaded fields.

[Travis Stone]

The two things that stick-out to me... The Illinois Derby should be on the list. And the BC Juvenile should be worth more as the season ending championship for 2yo's and the attention it gets leading into the 3yo year.

[Linny]

Clearly, unless a filly has taken on the boys in prior starts, we won't be seeing any fillies in the Derby. That's too bad. The "Oaks or Derby" speculation seems to create some interest in years when there is a very good filly or two around.

I guess I can see why they are not including any sprints (Hopeful, DM Futurity or any short early season races like the Hutchison) but horses like Trinniberg and other sprinters who have run in the Derby have added interest and PACE to the race.

I realize that the BCJ has historically not been a bellwether for Derby success, but to rank it as on par with the Withers or the Delta Jackpot or the El Camino Real seems ... well... strange.

It appears to be an attempt and "manufacturing" the "proper" Derby field rather than allowing it to develop in a more organic fashion.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Linny

It appears to be an attempt and "manufacturing" the "proper" Derby field rather than allowing it to develop in a more organic fashion.

While this year he had every right to contest the race, a fast sprinter like Trinniberg in the 10 furlong Kentucky Derby doesn't sound too organic to me.

[slotdirt]

I think there will be a few years in the near future where the field doesn't get anywhere close to 20.

[Alan07]

KENTUCKY OAKS PREP SEASON

Points: 10-4-2-1

Fillies’ Mile 1 M (T) Newmarket
Oak Leaf** 1 1/16 M Santa Anita
Alcibiades 1 1/16 M (S) Keeneland
Frizette 1 M Belmont
Mazarine 1 1/16 M (S)
Pocahontas 1 M Churchill Downs
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies 1 1/16 M Santa Anita
Delta Downs Princess 1 M Delta Downs
Demoiselle 1 1/8 M Aqueduct
Golden Rod 1 1/16 M Churchill Downs
Hollywood Starlet 1 1/16 M (S) Hollywood Park
Old Hat 6 F Gulfstream Park
Busanda 1 M Aqueduct
Santa Ynez 6 ½ F Santa Anita
Silverbulletday 1 M 70 Y
California Oaks 1 1/16 M (S) Golden Gate
Santa Ysabel 1 1/16 M Santa Anita
Forward Gal 7 F Gulfstream Park
UAE 1000 Guineas 1 M (S) Meydan
Martha Washington 1 M Oaklawn


KENTUCKY OAKS CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

First Leg of Series (50-20-10-5)

UAE Oaks 1 3/16 M (S) Meydan
Davona Dale 1 1/16 M Gulfstream Park
Rachel Alexandra 1 1/16 M Fair Grounds
Las Virgenes 1 M Santa Anita
Honeybee 1 1/16 M Oaklawn Park
Cicada 6 F Aqueduct
Bourbonette Oaks 1 M (S) Turfway
Sunland Oaks 1 1/16 M Sunland


Second Leg of Series (100-40-20-10)

Fair Grounds Oaks 1 1/16 M Fair Grounds
Gulfstream Oaks 1 1/8 M Gulfstream Park
Santa Anita Oaks 1 1/16 M Santa Anita
Ashland 1 1/16 M (S) Keeneland
Comely 1 M Aqueduct
Fantasy 1 1/16 M Oaklawn


“Wild Card” (20-8-4-2)

Beaumont 7 F (S) Keeneland

** Will be renamed at a later date.

[Calzone Lord]

Arazi was a 4-to-5 favorite in the Kentucky Derby. I believe he was the last odds-on Derby favorite.

That would be hilarious if a would-be odds on favorite can't get into the race because of how they fixed something that truthfully wasn't broke.

Who are the horses who would have got in under this silly point system, that were otherwise excluded from the Derby because of lack of earnings?

Rachel Alexandra opted for the Kentucky Oaks -- but she is another who would have been excluded.

[MaTH716]

I would be more interested in a 3 year old points series (for fillies as well) that started at the begining of the year and went through the Breeders Cup.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Arazi was a 4-to-5 favorite in the Kentucky Derby. I believe he was the last odds-on Derby favorite.

That would be hilarious if a would-be odds on favorite can't get into the race because of how the fixed something that truthfully wasn't broke.

Who are the horses who would have got in under this silly point system, that were otherwise excluded from the Derby because of lack of earnings?

Rachel Alexandra opted for the Kentucky Oaks -- but she is another who would have been excluded.

IMO this looks like a way to make the major contenders race against each other so people become familiar with them and rivalries are formed. It also is an attempt to get rid of the hopeless sprinters and the Delta Jackpot winner.

One tweek should be to let the top 2 fillies enter the derby if they meet certain criteria.

[slotdirt]

3YO's going the two prep route are going to be up against it, that's for sure. Win the Sam Davis and finish third in the Florida Derby? Good luck in the Jim Dandy.

[slotdirt]

I ask this every year, but what surefire Derby winner was excluded from the Derby because of the earnings system? The only answer anybody ever has is Rock Hard Ten, and he wasn't winning the Derby.

[10 pnt move up]

Maybe with a system like this it also pushes trainers to start running their horses a little more often, a two prep season where maybe you have a couple troubled starts after a successful two year old season won't get you in.

[South Beach Luv]

I like the filly angle. Why should graded earnings against only other fillies count towards a race dominated by colts. If you have a good filly and want a shot at the Derby run against the boys to get there.

Azeri and any other filly of years past would of or could have been campaigned differently to get in.