Breeders Cup Friday Thoughts

[jms62]

Originally Posted by tector

Anybody who does not at least take Doug's insights into account is a fool. For example, I liked his point that in the Juvy turf fillies, all the previous 5 winners have exited a N. American race. Does that mean it will automatically be true this time? Of course not, but it should also give you pause about automatically accepting that the off-the-boat fillies are a cinch, which I think some people are inclined to do.

Thanks Doug.

Someone blindly accepting off the boat juve's that have never won a version of the race are deserving of what they get.

[Calzone Lord]

Saturday's Selections:


Undercard:

Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint: Race #2: I love Gabriel Charles in this spot. He would get my day started off in the right way as he is 20-to-1 on the morning line. Upward Spiral is the best of the Euro's.

Selections: 5-2

The Damascus: Race #3: I have no idea where Private Zone's huge performance came from last time out. He's 5-to-1 on the morning line -- and a repeat of it will win. I like Sir Bond underneath.

Selections: 5-7


The BC Juvie Turf: Noble Tune is the best of the American's -- but I prefer the Euro's. Especially George Vancouver.

Selections: 3-2-9-5

BC Filly and Mare Sprint: If Groupie Doll runs her race she wins easily. If she's going to X today, you'll know it pretty early in, and Dust and Diamonds would capitalize on an easy lead. Teddy's Promise is a good exotic use.

Selections: 9-1-3


BC Dirt Mile: This race is loaded with early speed and this would have been the logical and conservative spot to run Nonios.

I loved Shackleford's performance last out -- it was very impressive, but he will have to deal with a ton of pressure in here. Emcee is a question mark in a two-turn route, but his performance last time was sensational. And don't sleep on Fed Biz -- all of Bob Baffert's horses bombed at Hoosier Park last time out -- don't be surprised if you see a dramatic reversal in form with this horse.

However, the key to betting this race is singling John Scott underneath in the in the trifecta's and superfecta. This is another great backwheel single situation ala today's Distaff. John Scott had a lot go against him last time and this time he projects for a dream trip.


BC Turf Sprint:

Not going to waste a lot of ever so precious words typing on this race.

Selections: 10-9-2


BC Juvenile:

I just hope Power Broker is game enough to win a tight one. I think he's the best horse in here, Fortify has the advantage of all of those races without using lasix and he will get more pace to work with.

Selections: 9-8-3


BC Turf:

St Nicholas Abbey defends his championship. Point Of Entry is clearly the best of the Americans.

Selections: 3-1-5-12


BC Sprint: If Amazombie had an excuse last time out -- I sure as hell couldn't find it. Still, this is his home track, and all of his prior dirt form is good enough to win this race. He's clearly the most likely winner...but if he repeats his dull performance last time, he's getting nothing.

Trinniberg is adding the blinkers. He's going to be the early leader and if no one pesters him, he can be an elusive target. If he does get pressure, he will stop late.

I'm going to backwheel single Gantry in exotics. I like Gantry to finish 3rd or 4th.


Breeders Cup Mile: Mr Commons gets it done.


Breeders Cup Classic: Game on Dude actually might be the second most likely winner on this entire Breeders Cup Card. I like his dirt races every bit as much as his synthetic races. He got an important rider switch (a rare thing) last time and he's drawn ideally being outside of Fort Larned in a race that isn't exactly over flowing with pace.

Selections: 5-2-11

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Saturday's Selections:


Undercard:

Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint: Race #2: I love Gabriel Charles in this spot. He would get my day started off in the right way as he is 20-to-1 on the morning line. Upward Spiral is the best of the Euro's.

Selections: 5-2

The Damascus: Race #3: I have no idea where Private Zone's huge performance came from last time out. He's 5-to-1 on the morning line -- and a repeat of it will win. I like Sir Bond underneath.

Selections: 5-7


The BC Juvie Turf: Noble Tune is the best of the American's -- but I prefer the Euro's. Especially George Vancouver.

Selections: 3-2-9-5

BC Filly and Mare Sprint: If Groupie Doll runs her race she wins easily. If she's going to X today, you'll know it pretty early in, and Dust and Diamonds would capitalize on an easy lead. Teddy's Promise is a good exotic use.

Selections: 9-1-3


BC Dirt Mile: This race is loaded with early speed and this would have been the logical and conservative spot to run Nonios.

I loved Shackleford's performance last out -- it was very impressive, but he will have to deal with a ton of pressure in here. Emcee is a question mark in a two-turn route, but his performance last time was sensational. And don't sleep on Fed Biz -- all of Bob Baffert's horses bombed at Hoosier Park last time out -- don't be surprised if you see a dramatic reversal in form with this horse.

However, the key to betting this race is singling John Scott underneath in the in the trifecta's and superfecta. This is another great backwheel single situation ala today's Distaff. John Scott had a lot go against him last time and this time he projects for a dream trip.


BC Turf Sprint:

Not going to waste a lot of ever so precious words typing on this race.

Selections: 10-9-2


BC Juvenile:

I just hope Power Broker is game enough to win a tight one. I think he's the best horse in here, Fortify has the advantage of all of those races without using lasix and he will get more pace to work with.

Selections: 9-8-3


BC Turf:

St Nicholas Abbey defends his championship. Point Of Entry is clearly the best of the Americans.

Selections: 3-1-5-12


BC Sprint: If Amazombie had an excuse last time out -- I sure as hell couldn't find it. Still, this is his home track, and all of his prior dirt form is good enough to win this race. He's clearly the most likely winner...but if he repeats his dull performance last time, he's getting nothing.

Trinniberg is adding the blinkers. He's going to be the early leader and if no one pesters him, he can be an elusive target. If he does get pressure, he will stop late.

I'm going to backwheel single Gantry in exotics. I like Gantry to finish 3rd or 4th.


Breeders Cup Mile: Mr Commons gets it done.


Breeders Cup Classic: Game on Dude actually might be the second most likely winner on this entire Breeders Cup Card. I like his dirt races every bit as much as his synthetic races. He got an important rider switch (a rare thing) last time and he's drawn ideally being outside of Fort Larned in a race that isn't exactly over flowing with pace.

Selections: 5-2-11

Mr. Commons? Really?

Care to elaborate on that one?

[Hoist Her Flag]

I'm all in on Mr Commons. Two races back he ran into the teeth of the lone speed in a fast time. Last race he made a premature move. Both races had small fields. He finally gets a large field and will make his run. Big shot. He's my most likely to run in the money. Obviusly could X and the Europeans could X. Im also using Jeranimo.

Game on Dude is the mot likely winner, but I see a lot of horses that will be ridden aggressively, the horse that makes the mid race the move the latest is my bet two win. Pool Play is being way overhyped he beat eldaafer and cease. Richards Kid is a personal favorite but overmatched.

[zippyneedsawin]

Looks like super99 is a scratch.

[Dahoss]

We agree on a lot for tomorrow as well DrugS, especially George Vancouver.

Hopefully we're right.

[Sightseek]

Great job Dougie!

[herkhorse]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Great job Dougie!

indeed

[casp0555]

Nice work CL!

[Clip-Clop]

Thanks a million for the backwheel call. Had the top two like most but no clue how to make it pay. The weekend is a guaranteed positive for me now! Best for tomorrows action.

[casp0555]

"The BC Juvie Turf: Noble Tune is the best of the American's -- but I prefer the Euro's. Especially George Vancouver."

Thanks Doug! Great call!!

[tector]

Good job, as always, sir.

[Calzone Lord]

Thanks guys.

Got off to a tremendous start when Gabriel Charles (who I'm glad I included in the write-up) crushed them in the Juvy turf sprint and George Vancouver got it done in the Juvie Turf.

No heroic scores, but it was a good day and would have been even better if Little Mike didn't stop my momentum.

[3kings]

Nice job Doug. I agree on Little Mike, it's at least the third time he has screwed up my day by blowing all my multi wagers.

[tector]

Little Mike also hosed me. He prevented a moderately good day from being a great day.

4 out of 5 on the pick 5, and 3 out of 4 on both pick 4s, Oh well...