DRF Derby: Points standings v. Graded Earnings

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Bart

Why??????????

Because maybe he is one of the 20 best horses and is a recognizable name?

Everyone acts like because a horse better suited as a sprinter ran in the Derby or a horse who was precocious as a 2 yo runs in the derby that it is some kind of crime.

[Danzig]

i disagree that the 2 yo bc winner should get an auto bid. i think the points system is doing a good job in ensuring that the best 3 yo's get in. if that doesn't include the juvie winner, it doesn't include him. it's up to the horse to earn a spot, and he's got as much time to do it as any other.

[Calzone Lord]

The fastest 3yo in America is already excluded.

Dreaming Of Julia is going to have a gigantic edge in highest last out speed figure, on everyones speed figures, going into the Derby.

She's a Pletcher going from Gulfstream to Churchill, so she's certainly unlikely to repeat that performance, but War Emblem and Charismatic both recently won the Kentucky Derby at huge odds with the highest last out speed figure going in.

The people who defended this point system said it would keep undeserving fillies out ... well ... using the graded earnings system, here is a list of every single filly to race in the Kentucky Derby since 1945:

2010 Devil May Care
2008 Eight Belles
1999 Excellent Meeting
1999 Three Ring
1995 Serena's Song
1988 Winning Colors
1984 Life's Magic
1984 Althea
1982 Cupecoy's Joy
1980 Genuine Risk
1959 Silver Spoon

That's a grand total of just 11 fillies. And 2 of them won it.

I think the last filly to enter the Preakness was Rachel Alexandra, she won.

I think the last filly to enter the Belmont is Rags to Riches, she won.

More importantly, think of the way Rachel Alexandra won the Preakness. She got into a speed duel with eventual wire-to-wire Breeders Cup Sprint winner Big Drama ... and she still held off the dream pace setup Derby winner.

More importantly, think of the way Rags To Riches won the Belmont. She stumbled badly at the start...and won a heroic stretch duel over a very respectable horse in 2-time Horse of the Year Curlin.

People don't foolishly enter fillies in classic races. Look at the last 70 years... it just doesn't happen, ever. Rachel Alexandra would have been the top figure horse going into the Derby, and she opted for the Oaks.

There are things in horse racing that are broke. The graded earnings system never was one of them.

It's a case of trying to fix what wasn't broke.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The fastest 3yo in America is already excluded.

The law of unintended consequences at work.

With this filly owned by Rachel Alexandra's connections, Churchill may have just blown the biggest story of Derby week (not that I would personally like Dreaming of Julia in the Derby).

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

The law of unintended consequences at work.

With this filly owned by Rachel Alexandra's connections, Churchill may have just blown the biggest story of Derby week (not that I would personally like Dreaming of Julia in the Derby).

Yeah. It just was extremely poorly devised and thought out.

The pace dynamics aren't any easier for Dreaming Of Julia in the Kentucky Oaks either. Beholder and Midnight Lucky are very fast, and she's going to have to run hard to stalk them, and obviously she'll make the first move at them.

I'd much rather see her in the Oaks because her presence will destroy the chances of both Beholder and Midnight Lucky ... and they are so fast and free-running, that any colt would pay a heavy price trying to stalk and pounce into them...the same is true even for Dreaming of Julia.

Still, she's the fastest 3yo router in America on everyones numbers.

She ran 11 lengths faster than Orb at the same day and same distance.

She ran 16 lengths faster than perfect trip Merit Man, at the same day, and same distance ... and he gets 20 points for outfinishing a 100/1 pace rival for 3rd.

Under the old system, I suspect Pletcher would probably only run her in the Derby if Verrezano isn't on top of his game or gets sidelined.

Still, she obviously has way more right to competing in the race than a Merit Man or the 2nd place finisher in the Sunland Derby who got crushed by a recent maiden winner.

[tector]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

There are things in horse racing that are broke. The graded earnings system never was one of them.

It's a case of trying to fix what wasn't broke.

It was broke to the extent it overvalued 2YO earnings compared to 3YO earnings. However, that was repairable by simply discounting 2YO earnings by some factor.

I do like the way it has added some value to the "classic" prep races. And, of course, there is nothing stopping a filly from being entered in one of those. Isn't that the route Winning Colors took (via the SA Derby, winning easily)? And Serena's Song (Jim Beam/Spiral--when it was more valued on dirt)?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by tector

It was broke to the extent it overvalued 2YO earnings compared to 3YO earnings. However, that was repairable by simply discounting 2YO earnings by some factor.

I do like the way it has added some value to the "classic" prep races.

Arazi, Sweetnorthernsaint, War Emblem, Charismatic, Mine That Bird, Lemon Drop Kid, Birdstone, Ten Most Wanted, Eight Belles, Giacomo, and Sea Hero --- they had a combined total of 104 points and all ran in the Ky Derby.

You get 100 points for Winning the UAE Derby like Daddy Long Legs did last year and Lines Of Battle did this year.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by tector

And, of course, there is nothing stopping a filly from being entered in one of those. Isn't that the route Winning Colors took (via the SA Derby, winning easily)? And Serena's Song (Jim Beam/Spiral--when it was more valued on dirt)?

That is true, but they were both trained by Wayne Lukas ... and very few trainers around will do that anymore.

You either have to campaign against the males early, or you're SOL.

[tector]

Well the whole UAE Derby thing is a joke--that's the KY bluebloods bowing down to Prince Whatshiname.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by tector

Well the whole UAE Derby thing is a joke--that's the KY bluebloods bowing down to Prince Whatshiname.

Who can blame them ... the way he spends his money and props up the prices at the sales...

[tector]

It's a great thing to be born with an ocean of oil under your ass.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by tector

It's a great thing to be born with an ocean of oil under your ass.

There is a lot of sadness in this world thanks to stuff like hunger, war, poverty, disease, Taylor Swift music, etc.

I'm sure the Sheik has a plan to help make this world a better, happier, more wonderful place for EVERYONE.

[PeteMugg]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

That is true, but they were both trained by Wayne Lukas ... and very few trainers around will do that anymore.

You either have to campaign against the males early, or you're SOL.

The process becomes part of the accomplishment. Should the fillies have an easier ticket to punch?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The fastest 3yo in America is already excluded.

Dreaming Of Julia is going to have a gigantic edge in highest last out speed figure, on everyones speed figures, going into the Derby.

She's a Pletcher going from Gulfstream to Churchill, so she's certainly unlikely to repeat that performance, but War Emblem and Charismatic both recently won the Kentucky Derby at huge odds with the highest last out speed figure going in.

The people who defended this point system said it would keep undeserving fillies out ... well ... using the graded earnings system, here is a list of every single filly to race in the Kentucky Derby since 1945:

2010 Devil May Care
2008 Eight Belles
1999 Excellent Meeting
1999 Three Ring
1995 Serena's Song
1988 Winning Colors
1984 Life's Magic
1984 Althea
1982 Cupecoy's Joy
1980 Genuine Risk
1959 Silver Spoon

That's a grand total of just 11 fillies. And 2 of them won it.

I think the last filly to enter the Preakness was Rachel Alexandra, she won.

I think the last filly to enter the Belmont is Rags to Riches, she won.

More importantly, think of the way Rachel Alexandra won the Preakness. She got into a speed duel with eventual wire-to-wire Breeders Cup Sprint winner Big Drama ... and she still held off the dream pace setup Derby winner.

More importantly, think of the way Rags To Riches won the Belmont. She stumbled badly at the start...and won a heroic stretch duel over a very respectable horse in 2-time Horse of the Year Curlin.

People don't foolishly enter fillies in classic races. Look at the last 70 years... it just doesn't happen, ever. Rachel Alexandra would have been the top figure horse going into the Derby, and she opted for the Oaks.

There are things in horse racing that are broke. The graded earnings system never was one of them.

It's a case of trying to fix what wasn't broke.

i think there is some tweaking that needs to be done, and giving points for filly races is one of them.
i do like the points program in that it weights for 3 yo over 2 yo racing, and seems to be encouraging more racing, fuller fields, and producing horses with good form going into the derby.

[goodcopy]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yeah. It just was extremely poorly devised and thought out.

The pace dynamics aren't any easier for Dreaming Of Julia in the Kentucky Oaks either. Beholder and Midnight Lucky are very fast, and she's going to have to run hard to stalk them, and obviously she'll make the first move at them.

I'd much rather see her in the Oaks because her presence will destroy the chances of both Beholder and Midnight Lucky ... and they are so fast and free-running, that any colt would pay a heavy price trying to stalk and pounce into them...the same is true even for Dreaming of Julia.

Still, she's the fastest 3yo router in America on everyones numbers.

She ran 11 lengths faster than Orb at the same day and same distance.

She ran 16 lengths faster than perfect trip Merit Man, at the same day, and same distance ... and he gets 20 points for outfinishing a 100/1 pace rival for 3rd.

Under the old system, I suspect Pletcher would probably only run her in the Derby if Verrezano isn't on top of his game or gets sidelined.

Still, she obviously has way more right to competing in the race than a Merit Man or the 2nd place finisher in the Sunland Derby who got crushed by a recent maiden winner.

Wake up and smell the roses,or the Oaks,I think ML is a MONSTER! and Julia and Beholder will be looking at her "arss" the whole race

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by goodcopy

Wake up and smell the roses,or the Oaks,I think ML is a MONSTER! and Julia and Beholder will be looking at her "arss" the whole race

And, suddenly, a new contender has emerged.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And, suddenly, a new contender has emerged.