Derby Future added for November

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

jamming it into thanksgiving, black friday and thanksgiving weekend is also retarded...not like ky derby 6 months away is going to be exactly at the forefront of anyones schedule

jamming it?

you could bet on the team that would win the stanley cup before the current nhl season started.
there are vegas odds available for the mlb 2014 season, and the dodgers are the early favorite to win the series-which is almost a year away.

you don't want to bet early, don't. but the derby future wagers fit right in line with what's available in the market.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Danzig

jamming it?

you could bet on the team that would win the stanley cup before the current nhl season started.
there are vegas odds available for the mlb 2014 season, and the dodgers are the early favorite to win the series-which is almost a year away.

you don't want to bet early, don't. but the derby future wagers fit right in line with what's available in the market.

I disagree. It's totally different from future books on sports. All 30 teams will play 162 (+/-1) games and have a "shot" at the World Series regardless of injuries, trades, etc. With FIXED odds. I would venture to guess that "maybe" 1 or 2 horses from the 23 listed will actually run in the Ky Derby. If that many. You'd have to be a fool to bet this pool this early.

[Indian Charlie]

This bet could make sense if you got really long odds on some relative unknown, but then again, you aren't likely to get that in an offering with only 24 horses listed.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by robfla

I disagree. It's totally different from future books on sports. All 30 teams will play 162 (+/-1) games and have a "shot" at the World Series regardless of injuries, trades, etc. With FIXED odds. I would venture to guess that "maybe" 1 or 2 horses from the 23 listed will actually run in the Ky Derby. If that many. You'd have to be a fool to bet this pool this early.

perhaps.
i don't buy futures, but i can see why some find them enticing. if people don't like them, don't bet them. but it's certainly no harm, no foul by introducing it. i don't get the negativity surrounding this move.
it's for fun. for retirement savings tho, i recommend a 401k.

[tanner12oz]

Originally Posted by Danzig

jamming it?

you could bet on the team that would win the stanley cup before the current nhl season started.
there are vegas odds available for the mlb 2014 season, and the dodgers are the early favorite to win the series-which is almost a year away.

you don't want to bet early, don't. but the derby future wagers fit right in line with what's available in the market.

your missing my point...i don't have an issue with future wagering but having future wagering open for a 5 day window during the biggest travel season of the year and the biggest shopping day of the year is retarded..
you have to make it easy to wager not harder

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

your missing my point...i don't have an issue with future wagering but having future wagering open for a 5 day window during the biggest travel season of the year and the biggest shopping day of the year is retarded..
you have to make it easy to wager not harder

Please stop using the word retarded.

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Please stop using the word retarded.

Agree...very ugly.

[Duvalier]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Please stop using the word retarded.

Thank you.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

your missing my point...i don't have an issue with future wagering but having future wagering open for a 5 day window during the biggest travel season of the year and the biggest shopping day of the year is retarded..
you have to make it easy to wager not harder

tell me, for the most part, who is doing the shopping? the wagering?
also, there's this new invention...it's called a smart phone. you can wager from anywhere, at any time. even from the mall, your hotel room, the airport, etc.

and not only is it a big travel window, it's also a four day wknd-the only guaranteed four day weekend every year. i'd imagine while there's a break in football games, people could..oh, i don't know, make a quick wager? from where ever they are. you know, when not at work, where betting sites are probably blocked.

and i agree with andy, stop using that word.

[tanner12oz]

The handle will decide the winner of this argument....i FIRMLY stand behind the retar...oh wait lets be politically correct ..absurd scheduling conflict...i have heard people whine for months about tracks running races on top of each other but when racing goes head to head with thanksgiving. Black Friday. Thanksgiving travel. And monster slate of NFL games its perfectly fine....handle will be trash....nobody will even know its occurring..there will be no advertising ...and that's where I sts d....racing dies for alot of people after the breeders cup...me included

[Danzig]

big difference between future bets and not having staggered starts. obviously it would help bettors if they had time to cap different cards

[odbaxter]

If anyone is going to place a future wager on any horse this November for next years Derby, please place it with an online bookmaker overseas or go to Vegas. I'm sure they have some action for you.. More horses available at fixed odds. The Future wager as we know it here is a joke.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by robfla

I disagree. It's totally different from future books on sports. All 30 teams will play 162 (+/-1) games and have a "shot" at the World Series regardless of injuries, trades, etc. With FIXED odds. I would venture to guess that "maybe" 1 or 2 horses from the 23 listed will actually run in the Ky Derby. If that many. You'd have to be a fool to bet this pool this early.

I don't see why you'd be a "fool" to make a bet into a pool with the same takeout as any other Churchill Downs win pool bet. Yes, there's a lot of uncertainty about a particular horse making it to the race, and to some degree, that is reflected in the odds. If you believe every listed horse is an underlay because of the uncertainty, then that makes the "All Others" a great bet.

Also, I'd make a substantial bet that more than your predicted "1 or 2 horses" from the pool make it to the Derby. In the past 10 years the fewest number of horses from Pool 1 to make it into the starting gate was 5. Next fewest was 7. In each of the last 2 years 12 horses from Pool 1 made it into the starting gate. It's certainly possible that listing the horses 2 months earlier will result in 2 or fewer entries, but the odds are small, IMO.

--Dunbar

[tanner12oz]

what do yall think the "all others" odds are going to be? 2/5 im thinking

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I don't see why you'd be a "fool" to make a bet into a pool with the same takeout as any other Churchill Downs win pool bet. Yes, there's a lot of uncertainty about a particular horse making it to the race, and to some degree, that is reflected in the odds. If you believe every listed horse is an underlay because of the uncertainty, then that makes the "All Others" a great bet.

Also, I'd make a substantial bet that more than your predicted "1 or 2 horses" from the pool make it to the Derby. In the past 10 years the fewest number of horses from Pool 1 to make it into the starting gate was 5. Next fewest was 7. In each of the last 2 years 12 horses from Pool 1 made it into the starting gate. It's certainly possible that listing the horses 2 months earlier will result in 2 or fewer entries, but the odds are small, IMO.

--Dunbar

sure if you think 2:5 or 3:5 payable in 7 months is a good deal...No Thanks for me


I don't make "internet bets" but we can look back in 7 months and see

[Dunbar]

One thing CD should be able to easily do is show odds greater than 99-1. Several horses will probably be well over 100-1. You'd think they'd get more takers showing 150-1 than 99-1.

Here are the odds (to 1) of "All Others" in Pool 1 from previous years, which usually occurred in late Jan or early Feb:

1999 4.1
2000 3.5
2001 3.0
2002 2.8
2003 2.2
2004 1.8
2005 2.1
2006 3.0
2007 2.6
2008 3.3
2009 1.9
2010 1.5
2011 2.1
2012 1.5
2013 1.6

2008 was an interesting year. Someone made a moderately large bet on the 2nd day on "All Others", so that when the DRF reported the odds in Saturday's edition, it was 6-5 on "All Others". (it wouldn't have taken a very large bet to do that, given the small early action on the 1st days.) I was apparently not the only one who lost interest in "All Others" then, only to see it close at 3.3-1, odds which I'd have been thrilled to get.

--Dunbar

[tanner12oz]

I looked and all others pool 1 has paid like 30% of the years

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

I looked and all others pool 1 has paid like 30% of the years

More like 47%:

YEAR, Derby Winner, Pool 1 Payout
2013 (Orb*) $5.00
2012 (I'll Have Another $60.20
2011 (Animal Kingdom*) $6.20
2010 (Super Saver) $43.20
2009 (Mine That Bird*) $5.80
2008 (Big Brown*) $8.60
2007 (Street Sense) $22.80
2006 (Barbaro) $40.20
2005 (Giacomo) $52.00
2004 (Smarty Jones*) $5.60
2003 (Funny Cide) $188.00
2002 (War Emblem*) $7.60
2001 (Monarchos) $36.60
2000 (Fusaichi Pegasus) $27.80
1999 (Charismatic*) $10.20

--Dunbar

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

More like 47%:

YEAR, Derby Winner, Pool 1 Payout
2013 (Orb*) $5.00
2012 (I'll Have Another $60.20
2011 (Animal Kingdom*) $6.20
2010 (Super Saver) $43.20
2009 (Mine That Bird*) $5.80
2008 (Big Brown*) $8.60
2007 (Street Sense) $22.80
2006 (Barbaro) $40.20
2005 (Giacomo) $52.00
2004 (Smarty Jones*) $5.60
2003 (Funny Cide) $188.00
2002 (War Emblem*) $7.60
2001 (Monarchos) $36.60
2000 (Fusaichi Pegasus) $27.80
1999 (Charismatic*) $10.20

--Dunbar

$30 wagered as a $2 bet every year would have returned $49 which is actually a 63.3% flat return.

damn. i've never understood the attraction of this particular wager until you posted the retrospective.

it's still not anything i would consider handicapping but unless you want to argue the sample size is too small, "all others" could be a good bet.

even at 2-5 and assuming a conservative hit rate of 50% (pool 1 is 7/15 so i don't think 50% is unreasonable this much earlier) you either get a 40% return or lose everything. a long term expectation of 20% in roughly 5 months. annualized that and you're near 50%.

i don't know anyone that would be unhappy with that return.

[randallscott35]

Yes but the secret is out. The years to bet the field were much more in the beginning of the process. I used to bet a grand on it every year till the public caught on. Now it just isn't as attractive at 3/2 or less field 1....and in Nov? 2/5 to tie up my money isn't happening.