Derby Toss

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

It's easy to say Frosted but I'll take Dortmund.

Me too. Particularly if he draws inside - slow speed that can find all kinds of trouble in a 20 horse field.

I'm also now dead set against Mubtaahij.
Don't like the fact that they felt the need to keep him on poly without a real work over the track, and if the Meydan Thorograph numbers can be trusted, there is simply just too much not to like.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

It's easy to say Frosted but I'll take Dortmund.

Why?

[cakes44]

Materiality, Upstart, and Dortmund.

[tanner12oz]

Why is everyone dumping carpe diem? Horse has been a pillar of consistency..im not crazy about pletchers derby stats but horse hasn't done anything wrong thus far.

[senator L]

Originally Posted by Danzig

why the exclusiong of frosted, he's one of the ones i was leaning toward?

well for me there is lots: He doesn't win often, he doesn't like kick back
he had surgery that only helps for a short time (not totally sure on that
as I'm not a vet) His jockey I'm not fond of because I find he rides most
horses like they're half Landuluce 1/2 Secretariat and I think he'll ride
em wide the whole race.

He'll probably win by 5 lol

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

Why is everyone dumping carpe diem? Horse has been a pillar of consistency..im not crazy about pletchers derby stats but horse hasn't done anything against anyone worth racing thus far.

FTFY

Oh, and he is slow. But so is International Star...though realistically, neither has really had to do much thus far. IS can at least close into reasonable fractions. CD needs to be close against real horses and has kind of shown his hand already. I'd expect (regardless of the hype) both to be 15-1 ish, and IS is the play there IMO

[tanner12oz]

I think the pace scenario is going to be pretty interesting. I don't picture wicked fractions and a pace meltdown..think your going to need to be in the first or second tier at worst.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

American Pharoah and Materiality

Hey Somer, is that psychic lady still in business? I always think about her every year, lol ...

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

FTFY

Oh, and he is slow. But so is International Star...though realistically, neither has really had to do much thus far. IS can at least close into reasonable fractions. CD needs to be close against real horses and has kind of shown his hand already. I'd expect (regardless of the hype) both to be 15-1 ish, and IS is the play there IMO

You expect Carpe Diem to be 15-1???

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

You expect Carpe Diem to be 15-1???

-ish.

Yes.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Danzig

Why?

Because of Mr Z. He was right with Dortmund and Firing Line in that race at Los Al and it's hard for me to shake the possibility that they aren't much better than he is and watching the way American Pharoah toyed with him makes me question how good they are. It's easier for me to toss them than to believe they are that good.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

You expect Carpe Diem to be 15-1???

The Florida - NY route horses tend to be overbet (regardless of whether they have a chance or not) and typically horses like International Star and Carpe Diem are value - if you are talking about horses that have "done nothing wrong". They are both slow in terms of relative speed, but neither has worked a great deal to get here either. In my opinion, IS just has upside, where CD doesn't.

American Pharoah
Frosted
Dortmund
Materiality
Upstart

will be lower than Carpe Diem at post

[Kitan]

Don't forget the influence Pletcher will have with the tote board. Many average Joes who won't know anything about the race besides the fact Pletcher is a top trainer and just blindly bet on him.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Because of Mr Z. He was right with Dortmund and Firing Line in that race at Los Al and it's hard for me to shake the possibility that they aren't much better than he is and watching the way American Pharoah toyed with him makes me question how good they are. It's easier for me to toss them than to believe they are that good.

I understand this to some degree but I think that was the peak of Mr. Z. who has regressed steadily. I believe the other two have improved. I agree with Dan that Dortmond would greatly benefit from an outside post.

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

The Florida - NY route horses tend to be overbet (regardless of whether they have a chance or not) and typically horses like International Star and Carpe Diem are value - if you are talking about horses that have "done nothing wrong". They are both slow in terms of relative speed, but neither has worked a great deal to get here either. In my opinion, IS just has upside, where CD doesn't.

American Pharoah
Frosted
Dortmund
Materiality
Upstart

will be lower than Carpe Diem at post

No way...I only wish I could get some action on that prediction

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

No way...I only wish I could get some action on that prediction

I'm not booking it - I haven't been right all year

have a great Derby, man

[IrishofNDMan]

Only playing two horses on top, American Pharoah and Far Right. Going to hope to get lucky and play a nice oaks deeby souble wirh birdatthewire and far right.