Your approach and type?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

Sorry if this question has been wheeled out pover and over again every month, but I'm curious to know 2 things about you-

Based on all the picks and selections that I see on here for upcoming races:

1) Do you guys handicap races the night/morning before the races, or is there anyone else like me that doesn't touch a DRF until about 10 minutes to post time?
I can't ever put in my 2 cents (except on BC and TC days) unless you asked me about 5 minutes before race time. I wanna know all the factors going right beofre races time. Track condition, scratches, odds,potential payoffs, everything. Morning Lines can be too misleading for that.

I like to make a preliminary line the night before for any race I think might be of betting interest. I can easily adjust that line for any of the late changes you list.

Originally Posted by pmayjr

2) What kinda of betting do you guys do?
I usually do Exacta and Tri Box's, and WP bets on longshots. I don't usually touch Supers, or Doubles, and Pick "#'s"

90% of my bets are win bets.

Originally Posted by pmayjr

3) What do you guys usually do better with? Do you guys have better success betting the Belmonts, Gulfstreams, the more established tracks, or the crap tracks? Or do you have a style that seems to work well for both (don't give a pompass answer to this pelase)?
I say this time and time again, but I do so much better betting 5k claimers at Mountaineer than I ever do at Belmont. Longshots pop everywhere, but at crappier tracks I think they hit more often.

I usually bet the bigger tracks. I pass on virtually all maiden races and rarely bet 2-yr-olds.

Originally Posted by pmayjr

4) any betting advice... on anything for me? We have some of the best minds in the sport in this forum. Your advice is valued...

My #1 piece of advice is to make your own fair odds line, preferably NOT by pulling numbers out of a hat. (Your line should work out to a 100% probability if you sum up 1/(ODDS+1) for each horse.) I've often felt I'd want to bet a horse at, say, 3-1, but after making a complete line, the 3-1 clearly wasn't good enough. Never make a bet unless you are getting more than your fair odds estimate.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Cardus

Shouldn't you factor in the takeout and make your comprehensive odds equal about 115 as opposed to 100?

Cardus, the goal is to find bets that have "value". You have "value" when the odds you are getting are greater than the "fair" odds. You cannot have a line of "fair" odds if the probabilities of all the outcomes add to 115%.

Here's a simple example. Let's say 10 horses in a race are perfectly matched; each has the same chance to win. If you make an odds line that adds to 115, you will find that each horse's odds would be 7.70 to 1. Does that mean you should be happy to find 8.50-1 on one of the horses? No way. The fair odds on each horse is 9-1, because each of the 10 horses has a 10% chance to win. You should not be happy unless you get more than 9-1.

Using a line that adds to anything other than 100% can only lead to confusion.

--Dunbar

[disappearingdan_akaplaya]

i dont have alotta time to elaborate cuz i gotta head out soon but i will say i ALWAYS read the form the night before, if i dont i feel naked if im at the track! when i wager individual races im primarily a W/P guy but if i like a horse alot on top thats gonna be around 8-1 or over then i will key exotics as well! my favorite wager is of course the pick 3, and my best and favorite wagering meet of the entire year returns this year in another month.........fairgrounds !