11/4 - My Budget - Your Suggestions - Page 2

brianwspencer · #21 10-20-2006, 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by avance2000

this is the best advice. on big days like derby day and bc day a lot of people start looking for crazy angles and/or start betting differently than they typically do. in my opinion, that is stupid.
go with what you do best.
if you like wins and pick 3's....play them, and try to cap it like you always would.
it can be a good day for beating favorites....but don't get too caught up in this either. sometimes bc races have so many good horses in them that the favorite you are trying to beat is a genuine superstar sitting on the board at 7/2. would you ignore that on any other day of the year? of course not....so it isn't wise to do it on this day either.

also, while it is important to bet this day like any other day, you should remember not to watch it like any other day. for example, if you decide to bet against bernardini in the classic and he draws off to win by 10....don't be so pissed about your bet that you forget to appreciate what you just saw.

last piece of advice. like any other day your goal should be to make money. sounds obvious right? but a lot of people....especially on these big days.....are so intent on turning their $200 into $10,000 that they end up turning it into $0. If you turn your $200 into $250.....you had a great day in my book.

that was fine fine advice. i agree with all of that.

also keep in mind that show bets somehow become profitable on this day. you can easily double your money on show bets, even when the favorite runs in -- it's like the derby where all those prices go up. stacked wps bets have been good to me in the past, something like $5 win, $10 place, $20 show. even if your horse shows, you're going to show a profit.

skippy3481 · #22 10-20-2006, 08:51 PM

Hell, if you start with 200 and end with 200 thats a win. A days worth enjoyment for free.

GenuineRisk · #23 10-20-2006, 10:05 PM

This is a terrific thread-- can it please, after it's run its course be moved to the retired reading board?

Thanks guys; very insightful and I'm learning a lot!

2Hot4TV · #24 10-20-2006, 10:51 PM

The real important thing is to not buy any beer at the track. Hide it in your back pack and it will save you $50.

randallscott35 · #25 10-21-2006, 12:34 AM

Bring more money. Just in case. The best day of racing each year deserves a minimum of a grand to play. Bet between 100-150 each of the first 4 races. Scale back if you hit nothing. Press if you do....There is no second place on Breeders Cup day. You go for it.

Zaf · #26 10-21-2006, 12:51 AM

I agree. I like to bet more on BC day because there is potential for huge scores. But unfortunately I haven't had any huge scores on BC day to date. Maybe this year

.

SentToStud · #27 10-21-2006, 05:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Bring more money. Just in case. The best day of racing each year deserves a minimum of a grand to play. Bet between 100-150 each of the first 4 races. Scale back if you hit nothing. Press if you do....There is no second place on Breeders Cup day. You go for it.

What? Why not bring a minimum of $10k on a day like this?

1. Take what you can afford to lose.
2. Bet to win. Or modest p-3's. Or Exacta boxes keying your horse.
3. Don't bet to place or show. Ever.
4. Make sure that you bet the horses you really like to win. You can go 3x3x3 all day long playing p-3s on your dudget, But just make sure that you have the $$ to bet $20 or $30 to win on the two or three horses you like the best on the card.
5. It's a great day of racing, but that doesn't mean you are compelled to play every race.
6. Conversely, don't be scared to toss a few $$ at two or three 20-1+
shots in a few races.

avance2000 · #28 10-21-2006, 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Bring more money. Just in case. The best day of racing each year deserves a minimum of a grand to play. Bet between 100-150 each of the first 4 races. Scale back if you hit nothing. Press if you do....There is no second place on Breeders Cup day. You go for it.

i just don't agree with that. there is no way you need "a minimum of a grand". $200 to play with is plenty to have a nice mixture of pick-3's and single race bets.
everyone has their own budget.....and not everyone can afford to lose $600 on the first 4 races as you suggest.
but i think where i disagree with you the most is where you say a person should "press" if they start winning. to me that is not sound advice, and a good way to give back the $$ you earned with good capping skills.
stick to your gameplan!
oh and of course.....if you really don't like a race.....don't be afraid to skip it....or just bet $5 on it. Feeling that you must play every race is stupid....especially on bc day. at a normal day at the track....skipping a race is boring b/c you might not want to just sit back and enjoy a $12,000 maiden-claimer.....but if you lay off a bc race.....you can sit back and enjoy the race b/c of who the horses are......and just cheer on your $5 win bet.

avance2000 · #29 10-21-2006, 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Don't bet to place or show. Ever.

this is a pretty good rule in general....but i don't think you should say "ever"

what if you really like a 20-1 horse in a race? don't you think a WP bet is appropriate in that case?

what if perfect drift is in the race? don't you think a $10 place and a $10 show bet is appropriate?

TheSpyder · #30 10-21-2006, 09:08 AM

Saying how much to bring makes about as much sense as telling me what horse to bet on in each race. We all have our views as well as different financial constraints.

If the author is asking about betting style that's a bit different. I think there's bigger risk BC day because of the long shots but also bigger reward. So you have decide, like poker, which way you want to play. Conservative makes the W,P,S attractive and you have a good chance of coming home with money while being more aggresive < pick 3, means your chances are to come up empty, but you may hit the mother load.

As for me, did I say $200,000, I meant 200,000 lire = $137

SentToStud · #31 10-21-2006, 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by avance2000

this is a pretty good rule in general....but i don't think you should say "ever"

what if you really like a 20-1 horse in a race? don't you think a WP bet is appropriate in that case?

what if perfect drift is in the race? don't you think a $10 place and a $10 show bet is appropriate?

the only time I ever think of betting to place or show is when there is a huge minus pool chalk I think can run out. That's it. But even in these situations, I'd rather play an single race exotic, especially a tri or super, which I only play when I think a bad chalk will run out. If like a horse at odds and don't care for the chalk, I will use my choice second in exactas and tris. I've tracked all my wagers for years and betting to place/show just does not pay due to breakage and takeout. And I'd rather take my chances putting those place or show $$'s on my pick to win or waiting for another race. Just the way I see it. I see your point about Perfect Drift, but so do plenty of other bettors as well so he may well be undervalued in those pools. It's just not for me. But, good luck!!

randallscott35 · #32 10-21-2006, 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by avance2000

i just don't agree with that. there is no way you need "a minimum of a grand". $200 to play with is plenty to have a nice mixture of pick-3's and single race bets.
everyone has their own budget.....and not everyone can afford to lose $600 on the first 4 races as you suggest.
but i think where i disagree with you the most is where you say a person should "press" if they start winning. to me that is not sound advice, and a good way to give back the $$ you earned with good capping skills.
stick to your gameplan!
oh and of course.....if you really don't like a race.....don't be afraid to skip it....or just bet $5 on it. Feeling that you must play every race is stupid....especially on bc day. at a normal day at the track....skipping a race is boring b/c you might not want to just sit back and enjoy a $12,000 maiden-claimer.....but if you lay off a bc race.....you can sit back and enjoy the race b/c of who the horses are......and just cheer on your $5 win bet.

Hey I have no problem with everyone having their own budget. But this is a day to go for it. And when I say press, I'm not saying to piss your money away on the next few races, but increase the % bankroll on exotics....I think every race you can make money on, even a chalky race with exotics. Therefore, there are no races I skip on BC day.

brianwspencer · #33 10-21-2006, 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud

the only time I ever think of betting to place or show is when there is a huge minus pool chalk I think can run out. That's it. But even in these situations, I'd rather play an single race exotic, especially a tri or super, which I only play when I think a bad chalk will run out. If like a horse at odds and don't care for the chalk, I will use my choice second in exactas and tris. I've tracked all my wagers for years and betting to place/show just does not pay due to breakage and takeout. And I'd rather take my chances putting those place or show $$'s on my pick to win or waiting for another race. Just the way I see it. I see your point about Perfect Drift, but so do plenty of other bettors as well so he may well be undervalued in those pools. It's just not for me. But, good luck!!

on BC day, there is almost no such thing as bring "undervalued" in a place or show pool unless it's the favorite you're betting on. hell, gorella paid $6.00 to show last year and that was a gimme.

this is the one day all year where i very strongly advocate place and show wagering, especially if you're on a budget. it's the easiest way to make money on BC day, you're not going to make a huge score, but if you're in tune with even half of the day, you'll come out ahead.

SCUDSBROTHER · #34 10-21-2006, 01:02 PM

If it hasn't rained during Breeders Cup week(and isn't raining B.C. DAY,)then I would play a pick 6 with the money.There are too many good low priced horses to go fishing for a price in every race.You'll just go broke,and be bitter at Pletcher etc.So,in 4 of the 6 races,use the 2 horses in each race that you really think will get you the winner.DON'T CONSIDER ODDS(for once.)In one of the races,I would try to come up with a horse you like at a price(this is your favorite price horse of the day.........like last year when Shug hooked up a horse to nature's nitro.) Then in the last leg, wheel a race(one of these races is often simply stupid.)So,cap 5 races,and don't cap 1 of them.After all,most people are trying to cap all 6,and logic is overrated when your talking about 6 races in a row.So,go 2x2x2x2x1x all.I would actually go in with others (so you can make it 3x3x3x3x1xall.)I would make sure to wheel one race though.You simply need to do that,and you need one decent paying single.

Slewbopper · #35 10-21-2006, 02:08 PM

[quote=avance2000]this is a pretty good rule in general....but i don't think you should say "ever"

what if you really like a 20-1 horse in a race? don't you think a WP bet is appropriate in that case?

QUOTE]

In that situation I would not bet place. I would bet all exactas with him Maybe box him with 5 others. 10 - $1 bets.

In contentious 12 to 14 horse races (3/1 or better fave), I really think the way to go is boxing 5 horses in the exacta. 20 bets. To break even the payoff has to be $40 ($2). You will see very few exactas under $100 in fields like this.

In races where I really like a horse, I will key them on top in a 5 horse tri box. At Lone Star, I had Ouija (9/10) keyed with 7 boxed behind her in the tri. Cost $42. I left Wonder Again off my ticket because she had the outside post in a field of 12. Could have bumped my ticket to $56, but I was too cheap. Somebody had to go. $2 tri was about 380.

Oh, the heartbreak of almost winning.

SentToStud · #36 10-21-2006, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

on BC day, there is almost no such thing as bring "undervalued" in a place or show pool unless it's the favorite you're betting on. hell, gorella paid $6.00 to show last year and that was a gimme.

this is the one day all year where i very strongly advocate place and show wagering, especially if you're on a budget. it's the easiest way to make money on BC day, you're not going to make a huge score, but if you're in tune with even half of the day, you'll come out ahead.

Brian,
To me, there's no gimmes. Just not my style to bet p/s. But, good luck.
Pizza Bob's still there in Ann Arbor (State Street next to Campus Corners Liquor Store)?

Please let me know who this year's $6.00 to show gimme is!

good luck!

ateamstupid · #37 10-21-2006, 04:45 PM

I disagree with Randall, not about the money thing, but about going heavy in the first four races.

I think the first few races of the day are where you have to just dabble and experiment, and get a feel for what kind of day it's going to be, and how the track is playing. For instance, if you can't understand how the horses who won the first few races were even allowed to enter, you probably should scale back and take it easy until things start making sense again.

Here's what I did in '04 with ABOUT your budget..

Early pick four ($30).. Got 3/4.. Don't get me started.. ****ing Speightstown.
Win bet ($20).. On Singletary.. Got lucky here and had a little more to play with.
Cheap pick six ticket ($40).. Ended up getting 3/6 which is better than some people with much larger tickets did.
Late pick four ($40).. Busted when Wilko won.
Late double ($160).. Straight.. Kitten's Joy and Ghostzapper.. Still can't believe KJ lost.

As you can see, I didn't make many bets, but rather focused on the horses I really liked and the exotics I had a strong feeling about.

I'd say this would be the best approach to make $, but at the same time, it requires a lot of patience.

Whatever you decide to do, HAVE FUN!

randallscott35 · #38 10-21-2006, 04:50 PM

Ateam,
To me that's not going heavy at all. You are simply using your money in a way where you have a chance to make a score early. If you have no good feeling on a race, then obviously you should play it for less, but I think people make mistakes by simply going easy early and big late. Sometimes the bombs come in early, and if you are playing conservatively you miss the payday.

ateamstupid · #39 10-21-2006, 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Ateam,
To me that's not going heavy at all. You are simply using your money in a way where you have a chance to make a score early. If you have no good feeling on a race, then obviously you should play it for less, but I think people make mistakes by simply going easy early and big late. Sometimes the bombs come in early, and if you are playing conservatively you miss the payday.

The point is you're pretty much going into the races blind if you give an equal amount to the early races.. You don't know how the track's gonna be playing or what kinda feeling for the day the early races are gonna give you. To me, it's much easier to get a feel for what the day's gonna bring before I invest heavily. Unless I have a horse I absolutely love no matter what in the early races.

randallscott35 · #40 10-21-2006, 04:57 PM

Again, no one else knows how the track is playing either. Thus no one is at an advantage and an overlay may have a better chance of winning when people don't realize a bias early on....There is no bad betting race on BC day. There is value in every single race. Sometimes it will come through, sometimes it won't.